Area north of PR looks more organized
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Possible spin up???
As you can see that at the surface theres a high at 30 north/88-90 west. The Azores/Bermuda at 60 west has southly flow at 70 to 75 west. At the 200 millibar level the trough is still over the east coast...With a stronger southly flow. Also see that the ridge/Anticyclone is not built over Florida. But only to 85 west. Which means the lower levels can have a system moving westward or west-northwestward...At 75 west. While at the upper levels the ULL will get picked up by the trough.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
See that Surface high on the first one...It weakens but there is likely to be enough surface ridging. Then as the ULL pulls out a area of energy spins forms over the southwestern side.
Take a look at 850 hgt/height level see everything west of 75 west at the surface to 850 millibars. Which is getting turned back westward or southwestward. Theres a surface high over GA/SC.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
Also you can see that in the 500 millibars.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml
Theres a tropical wave over the central Caribbean...Which as this ull moves northward...The ULL picks this energy northward...In which under this area of high pressure the shear is lighter/more faverable. Which could try to develop something.
The Gfs builds a stronger Azores/Bermuda high...Which steers this more westward...Into Miami area...Then enough high over the Ga area.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
You can see the wave at 68 west...You can see the high over Al/Ga...Then you can look at that area at 75 to 80 west with height falls=area of less pressure which the models forecast. Then the upper low to the north pulls moisture. The tropical wave inner acts with the dieing front/area of rising over Florida. We will see.
For one the Nam forces the air to rise more=more chance for a surface low to form. But the Gfs pushs the core into the gulf.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
As you can see that at the surface theres a high at 30 north/88-90 west. The Azores/Bermuda at 60 west has southly flow at 70 to 75 west. At the 200 millibar level the trough is still over the east coast...With a stronger southly flow. Also see that the ridge/Anticyclone is not built over Florida. But only to 85 west. Which means the lower levels can have a system moving westward or west-northwestward...At 75 west. While at the upper levels the ULL will get picked up by the trough.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
See that Surface high on the first one...It weakens but there is likely to be enough surface ridging. Then as the ULL pulls out a area of energy spins forms over the southwestern side.
Take a look at 850 hgt/height level see everything west of 75 west at the surface to 850 millibars. Which is getting turned back westward or southwestward. Theres a surface high over GA/SC.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
Also you can see that in the 500 millibars.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml
Theres a tropical wave over the central Caribbean...Which as this ull moves northward...The ULL picks this energy northward...In which under this area of high pressure the shear is lighter/more faverable. Which could try to develop something.
The Gfs builds a stronger Azores/Bermuda high...Which steers this more westward...Into Miami area...Then enough high over the Ga area.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
You can see the wave at 68 west...You can see the high over Al/Ga...Then you can look at that area at 75 to 80 west with height falls=area of less pressure which the models forecast. Then the upper low to the north pulls moisture. The tropical wave inner acts with the dieing front/area of rising over Florida. We will see.
For one the Nam forces the air to rise more=more chance for a surface low to form. But the Gfs pushs the core into the gulf.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
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