92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#61 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 12:24 pm

I'd be willing to call it TD2-E now...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #62 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:06 pm

Me to but the nhc will take its time. :eek:

#63 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:16 pm

GFDL run on this system brings it into mexico by the middle of the run and making it to Tropical Storm Force before hand.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

clfenwi · #64 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:26 pm

02/1745 UTC 12.5N 104.5W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #65 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:27 pm

LLC has become fairly strong over the northeastern side of the deep convection. With some banding...Looks like a depression.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:38 pm

At 18:00z update it is at 25kts,1006 mbs.I can expect a Tropical Storm Formation Alert later this afternoon or evening if the organization continues to improve.

#67 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:39 pm

25kts=30 mph and thats a TD

Aquawind · #68 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:38 pm

So much convection firing ATM it's difficult to see the lower levels for a LLC. The pressures should continue to fall it's just how well organized and stacked the winds get. I agree with a TD/TS soon.

#69 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:48 pm

I will be very shocked if this doesn't develop

#70 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:55 pm

ivanhater wrote:I will be very shocked if this doesn't develop

You are right on that.Look below.It looks like liftoff.

Floater Infared Image

Floater Visible Image

#71 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ivanhater wrote:I will be very shocked if this doesn't develop

You are right on that.Look below.It looks like liftoff.

Floater Infared Image

Floater Visible Image

yep, hey can you post the link that shows when an invest or td forms?

Aquawind · #72 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:09 pm

NRL considers it an invest already.. I beleive when they change the name to NONAME when they consider it a TD.. They are not the final say though..but it's fairly reliable.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#73 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:12 pm

Aquawind wrote:NRL considers it an invest already.. I beleive when they change the name to NONAME when they consider it a TD.. They are not the final say though..but it's fairly reliable.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

great, thanks

#74 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:27 pm

ivanhater wrote:
Aquawind wrote:NRL considers it an invest already.. I beleive when they change the name to NONAME when they consider it a TD.. They are not the final say though..but it's fairly reliable.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

great, thanks

I thought being a veteran here you had the NRL link.

#75 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Aquawind wrote:NRL considers it an invest already.. I beleive when they change the name to NONAME when they consider it a TD.. They are not the final say though..but it's fairly reliable.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

great, thanks

I thought being a veteran here you had the NRL link.

lol, I did have it saved under my favorites, but we canceled AOL so I lost it.

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:30 pm

lol, I did have it saved under my favorites, but we canceled AOL so I lost it.

Ok good.

#77 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:12 pm

why didnt they make it a td?

Derek Ortt · #78 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:19 pm

because it is not a TD

MiamiensisWx · #79 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:23 pm

I wouldn't get too excited over the development chances now. Compared to earlier yesterday and early today, even with the convective blowup, it is not looking as impressive. The circulation is less defined (organized), and shear is increasing over it, with 40KT to 50KT shear approaching it from the north and northwest...

Shear values

I personally think this was a depression yesterday and early today, when banding features and a developing LLC/MLC were VERY well-defined and shear was lower with an establishing anticyclone, but since the anticyclone has been eroded and shear is increasing, combined with the overall less impressive organization, I think it is just barely a tropical depression now, if at all. It doesn't have the organization, features, anfd synoptics of a tropical depression that it had yesterday and very early today.

Also, remember that the eastern Pacific season normally doesn't start until later (although it is not uncommon to have close calls with development). With that said, I think this system will likely persist, but the chances for more significant development have gone down.

MiamiensisWx · #80 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:31 pm

By the way, I think this had potential earlier, but chances are less impressive now, in my opinion.

92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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