91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34095
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:51 pm

It's more Nor'Easter than tropical in my opinion.
0 likes   

Camille_2_Katrina

#62 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:51 pm

IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE IT'S DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST RIGHT NOW.

that puts it closer to warmer waters. I heard that these things can create their
own climate around them if they get strong enough.

any model things out yet?
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#63 Postby feederband » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:54 pm

stormtruth wrote:That looks like the pitiful naked swirls you see near the end of the season.


Yeah but pitiful naked swirls in April are great to talk about.. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
stormtruth
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:15 pm

#64 Postby stormtruth » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:55 pm

It isn't strong Camille. I think the other people posting here are correct in that it isn't coming into the Gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146215
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#65 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:55 pm

NRL second site

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Ummm not so fast folks.Nada at the other NRL site and no model runs that I haved seen for this so far so this may be a test.But anyway this shows how rapidly these kind of threads grow in replies and views. :) And this seems as a practice for the members before the real stuff forms. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
stormtruth
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:15 pm

#66 Postby stormtruth » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:56 pm

feederband wrote:
stormtruth wrote:That looks like the pitiful naked swirls you see near the end of the season.


Yeah but pitiful naked swirls in April are great to talk about.. :lol:


Very true :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#67 Postby skysummit » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:NRL second site

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Ummm not so fast folks.Nada at the other NRL site and no model runs that I haved seen for this so far so this may be a test.But anyway this shows how rapidly these kind of threads grow in replies and views. :)


LOL...this is just another practice. NRL decided to give S2K's servers a run through.
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#68 Postby feederband » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:57 pm

Someone move the floater please... :lol: :wink:
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34095
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#69 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:58 pm

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

GFS: not operating
CMC: drifts the system southeast
NOGAPS: briefly southeast then rapidly north
GFDL: no prediction yet
WRF: drifts the system east
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#70 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

GFS: not operating
CMC: drifts the system southeast
NOGAPS: briefly southeast then rapidly north
GFDL: no prediction yet
WRF: drifts the system east



Try this one crazy
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#71 Postby x-y-no » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:15 pm

Wheeeee!!!

Four pages on a naked swirl embedded in a trough and moving NE over 70 degree water ...

If this is a sign of things to come, Luis is going to have a tough time maintaining that 10 page limit when the real stuff starts ... he won't be able to lock the threads fast enough. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:

#72 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:15 pm

As you can see the environment is rapidly improving. Convection is quickly forming around the center and an eye is becoming well defined too. Pressures in the area have decreased 9mb in the past hour. I am confident this system will bomb out to a category five within the next 24 hours and even threaten Tip's 870mb. It will then crash into Long Island and will maintain hurricane status up into Canada

my forecast:

12hrs 100kts
24hrs 145kts
36hrs 180kts
48hrs 150kts...inland
72hrs 100kts
96hrs 75kts
120hrs 55kts

I very much hope nobody takes this seriously :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxboy222
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 11:26 pm

#73 Postby wxboy222 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:NRL second site

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Ummm not so fast folks.Nada at the other NRL site and no model runs that I haved seen for this so far so this may be a test.But anyway this shows how rapidly these kind of threads grow in replies and views. :) And this seems as a practice for the members before the real stuff forms. :)


That is NRL's backup site, updates a lot slower, unless main site goes offline.

And for all others, the system is DRIFTING SSE right now, but really not much to worry about. Will post model runs ASAP.
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#74 Postby feederband » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:20 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:As you can see the environment is rapidly improving. Convection is quickly forming around the center and an eye is becoming well defined too. Pressures in the area have decreased 9mb in the past hour. I am confident this system will bomb out to a category five within the next 24 hours and even threaten Tip's 870mb. It will then crash into Long Island and will maintain hurricane status up into Canada

my forecast:

12hrs 100kts
24hrs 145kts
36hrs 180kts
48hrs 150kts...inland
72hrs 100kts
96hrs 75kts
120hrs 55kts

I very much hope nobody takes this seriously :lol:


Think you might be off on the timing a little..
0 likes   

Camille_2_Katrina

#75 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:25 pm

we are forcast to have 30 mph winds here in south mississippi
this weekend... are those effect of this system?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#76 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:25 pm

wxboy222 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NRL second site

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Ummm not so fast folks.Nada at the other NRL site and no model runs that I haved seen for this so far so this may be a test.But anyway this shows how rapidly these kind of threads grow in replies and views. :) And this seems as a practice for the members before the real stuff forms. :)


That is NRL's backup site, updates a lot slower, unless main site goes offline.

And for all others, the system is DRIFTING SSE right now, but really not much to worry about. Will post model runs ASAP.


Sorry to go against you, but the back up site is ALWAYS updated before the principal site.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxboy222
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 11:26 pm

#77 Postby wxboy222 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:25 pm

absoultely not
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#78 Postby skysummit » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:25 pm

wxboy222 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NRL second site

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Ummm not so fast folks.Nada at the other NRL site and no model runs that I haved seen for this so far so this may be a test.But anyway this shows how rapidly these kind of threads grow in replies and views. :) And this seems as a practice for the members before the real stuff forms. :)


That is NRL's backup site, updates a lot slower, unless main site goes offline.

And for all others, the system is DRIFTING SSE right now, but really not much to worry about. Will post model runs ASAP.


OMG....for a first post telling Luis how things are done. WOW :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
JamesFromMaine2
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
Location: Portland Maine USA
Contact:

#79 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:25 pm

Camille_2_Katrina wrote:we are forcast to have 30 mph winds here in south mississippi
this weekend... are those effect of this system?


No!
0 likes   

Camille_2_Katrina

#80 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:28 pm

i have relitives comng in next week to help with some rebuilding
and now this!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Google [Bot], Heretoserve, kenayers, Tak5, wileytheartist and 80 guests