How strong could an Atlantic/Carrib/GOM storm get MCP-wise?

[Audrey2Katrina]

JMO, but I think 2005 will prove to be the peak of this particular "active" cycle. Oh, to be certain there'll be other active years, maybe even another that uses all of the alphabet, but I doubt we'll see anything as bad as this past season was for a long time. There'll be other horrific storms too, hither and yon; but not such a collection as we've seen all in one year. I know it's possible, and a lot of you storm-watching aficcionados will be pulling for otherwise; but that's what I honestly think FWIW. Wishful thinking? Perhaps; but simply looking at patterns of other "active" cycles, I'm gonna go with that gut feeling.

A2K

[Scorpion]

JMO, but I think 2005 will prove to be the peak of this particular "active" cycle. Oh, to be certain there'll be other active years, maybe even another that uses all of the alphabet, but I doubt we'll see anything as bad as this past season was for a long time. There'll be other horrific storms too, hither and yon; but not such a collection as we've seen all in one year. I know it's possible, and a lot of you storm-watching aficcionados will be pulling for otherwise; but that's what I honestly think FWIW. Wishful thinking? Perhaps; but simply looking at patterns of other "active" cycles, I'm gonna go with that gut feeling.

A2K

Interestingly though, Andrew, a Cat 5, and Hugo, a Cat 4 and maybe a 5, both made landfall during this non-active cycle. Additionally, there were storms like Gilbert and Allen.

[f5]

4 CAT 5s in one season is amazing but thankfully they all weakened or it would of been disaster after disaster Galveston got lucky.Had Rita gone into galveston bay your gas prices would of gone through the ozone layer

[Audrey2Katrina]

JMO, but I think 2005 will prove to be the peak of this particular "active" cycle. Oh, to be certain there'll be other active years, maybe even another that uses all of the alphabet, but I doubt we'll see anything as bad as this past season was for a long time. There'll be other horrific storms too, hither and yon; but not such a collection as we've seen all in one year. I know it's possible, and a lot of you storm-watching aficcionados will be pulling for otherwise; but that's what I honestly think FWIW. Wishful thinking? Perhaps; but simply looking at patterns of other "active" cycles, I'm gonna go with that gut feeling.

A2K

Interestingly though, Andrew, a Cat 5, and Hugo, a Cat 4 and maybe a 5, both made landfall during this non-active cycle. Additionally, there were storms like Gilbert and Allen.

No argument from me; but they were not all in the same year, and if you look at other 30-40 year "active" cycles, you just don't find bunches of seasons with 27+ named storms... strictly applying logic here, and I did concede that anything's possible.

A2K

[GeneratorPower]

Wilma's Pressure likely got below 882 MB. But considering the pressure that seems about standard in every basin int he world, i'd say 875 MB is probably about the cap we'll see with hurricanes, at least until the water superheats 10 more degrees and we'll have a real issue with supercanes.

Remember that Wilma's MCP of 882 was in association with the dreaded "Pinhole Eye". The tightness of the eye, at just 2 nm, was what caused that amazing MCP and high winds. My guess is that in order to see much less than 882, we would need a much stronger overall storm.

[Scorpion]

There are just so many factors that have to go perfectly right for a storm to reach its MPI. Outflow has to be perfect, shear has to be nonexistant, there has to be no dry air, etc.

[Derek Ortt]

the 810mb was right over the eddy, which had more heat content and higher SST than even the NW Carib and the loop current
and MPI is the maximum intensity, and if anything, it is TOO LOW because it does not account for rises in the tropopause as mean layer temp increases. If everything came together either thorugh barotropic or QG methods, the tip record will easily be broken, if Dale in 1996 didnt break the record

[GeneratorPower]

There are just so many factors that have to go perfectly right for a storm to reach its MPI. Outflow has to be perfect, shear has to be nonexistent, there has to be no dry air, etc.

Well said...and since we have seen storms with MCPs of less than 890mb associated with storms that had less-than-ideal surroundings, it is safe to assume there is always room for improvement.

Obviously, some factors such as shear have a finite lower limit. That is, you can't have less shear than zero shear. So assuming factors such as sheer, lack of dry air entrainment, and other things are perfect, there are a couple of factors that don't have limits.

Take ocean temperature for example. It can always get warmer. Or outflow... it could always be a little better. These types of factors will be what govern the maximum MCP a hurricane can achieve.

[Derek Ortt]

if the ocean temps increase, tropopause temps also likely increase, negating any increse to the MPI, so I am not convinced that global warming will result in a significant increase to the MPI

[CrazyC83]

I'd say, in the perfect conditions, the low 870s in the Caribbean, the high 880s in the Gulf and the 890s in the open Atlantic.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'd say, in the perfect conditions, the low 870s in the Caribbean, the high 880s in the Gulf and the 890s in the open Atlantic.

Probably right, perhaps mid-880's at best. I believe we've already reached the "high 890's" in the Gulf, with Rita. I think that, too can be beaten--but not by a whole lot.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

In the gulf realisticly I'd say 885mb

[Hurricaneman]

Im sure you could get an 870 storm if conditions are right

[KWT]

Well if I remember rightly Wilma when it went down to 882mbs wasn't in amazingly warm SST's and I wouldn't be suprised if Wilma actually went pretty close to as low as it could actually go, SST's at the time round there was about 28c if I remember rightly.

I think 870-860mbs in the gulf is more then possible for a storm if it got into a very favorable environment and into a very warm part of the loop curret. Will we get that low, thats another matter.

Derek, the problem is SST's are way more prone to large changes in temps while the upper temps will probably take many years to catch up to any increase that the SST's have I believe.

[Derek Ortt]

unless there is a change to the ocean currents that causes the warmer water, any increase in temps would be due to increased atmospheric warming, which somewhat negates their increase

[Scorpion]

I think that 850's are possible in the Caribbean, and upper 860's in the Gulf. Low 880's possible in the open Atlantic.

[KWT]

Well already the MPI charts show that the gulf of Mexico can support something as deep as 950mbs, of course thankfully the atmopsheric condtions aren't there for it yet but it does give a idea that the gulf is already ready if something comes along and the atmopshere relaxs its grip for a little while.

Even now I suspect the gulf could realistically support something in the 980's though of course that would depend on what shear done.

[milankovitch]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/modelftp.html

Here is a simple hurricane model I found on Kerry Emanuel's site. It's simple to run and you can change paramaters in the text file.

[KWT]

That sounds pretty cool but I've not got a clue how to work it!!!
isn't that there a way where you can simply just upload a complete and ready to use version of that, because I can't get my head round it??

What on earth is an array veiwer?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I say...after last season...anything is possible anywhere at anytime.