Repeat of 2004 setup for Florida

MiamiensisWx · #61 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:28 am

boca, here is some good information on Frances...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/events/?id=frances

The highest gusts in my area were generally barely hurricane-force; in fact, I think most of the highest gusts in my area during Frances were below 75MPH. With that said and comparing Frances to Wilma, this means that my area had sustained winds of low-end to middle tropical storm-force winds at most.

#62 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:29 am

it's very clear that Wilma's winds were far more powerful down here than Frances or Jeanne. Wilma was able to rip off most of the non-native tree canopies here in Boca but Frances and Jeanne could not. Unfortunately these storms may mislead people here to think they have lived through a major hurricane when in fact they have not even come close.

South FL is still awaiting a major to hit and it has been since 1992. Before that you have to go all the way back to 1947 I believe. 1960 to 2003 have been a non-active era for FL unlike the 1930s through 1950s. This major hit will come much sooner than later. I don't want to panic anybody but when it happens you won't recognize this place anymore.

MiamiensisWx · #63 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:30 am

Very true, boca_chris; I agree! Palm Beach County has not seen a direct major hit from the east since 1949, while Broward County has not seen one since 1947. With this active cycle, I doubt we can go on much longer without a major hit from the east, unfortunately. Sad but very, very, very true.

#64 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:31 am

There are many that will argue with us CapeVerde and accuse us of causing undue panic, but I will put money that this major will happen within the next few years if not this year. Climatologically speaking, mother nature is clearly aligning against FL

MiamiensisWx · #65 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:33 am

boca_chris, do you agree with my thoughts on the wind intensity of Frances in my area? Also, Jeanne had lower winds than Frances in my area.

#66 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:34 am

Yes your analysis is right on. Frances and Jeanne were windy and considering it has been *so* long since this area has seen such winds, they were more "dramatized" then necessary. Actually, when I warned people about Wilma down here they did not think it would be as bad as Frances and Jeanne (because they had the mentality that "how could it be worse than those storms?"). I told them that Wilma was going to wreak serious havoc here much more than those storms. Could you imagine a CAT 4 or CAT 5 through here?

MiamiensisWx · #67 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:37 am

I agree... those are some good points. Also, Wilma's winds in my area (sustained) were largely Category One winds, and many times they were low-end to middle Category One winds. Many need to realize the destruction those winds cause, as well as the damage gusts cause. I can't imagine a major hurricane through here, either.

boca · #68 Postby **boca** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:38 am

CapeVerde you were right about the winds in our area. It probably seemed more to me since I haven't experienced winds like that in a long time. Thanks for the info.

MiamiensisWx · #69 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:39 am

You're welcome, boca! I agree!

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:39 am

Another key point is that South Florida sees many hits from the South and Southwest (like Wilma). It doesn't take a storm from the East to cause major destruction here. A cat 5 moving at say 10-15mph from the Southwest would hardly weaken across the marshy everglades. I say CAT 3/4 winds in metro Southeast FL in that case.

So while I worry about the east I worry about the Southwest also. Basically any direction is bad for South FL except an approach from the northwest which is highly unlikely :wink:

boca · #71 Postby **boca** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:42 am

I don't think we ever have gotten hit from the NW.

MiamiensisWx · #72 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:45 am

By the way, here is the Frances report...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004frances.shtml?

The highest gust recorded at the Boca Raton Airport was 50KT (60MPH). By the way, good points on how southwestern storms like Wilma are destructive as well, boca_chris! However, we have not seen a direct major hit from the east in over 40 years.

#73 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:38 pm

You guys are definitely right... although people did put up thier shutters up they did not fully prepare for the storm. There were soooo many people out of food, gas and other essential goods that I personally prepared for and was ready to survive for 2 weeks after the storm. My girlfriend told me that I was waisting my time even when I was getting ready for the storm and why I had to spend money on things. Well about the 5th day without power she was thanking me because her friends had ran out of food and gas. She won't be questioning me on hurricane preparation again. It really suprised me after us being through it before how many people did not get ready. They live in a hurricane prone area due to the geography of our coast and being so far south. I think it is partly due to all the northerners that have moved down here in the last 10 years and not having a major storm hit the area as boca_chris, boca and capeverde have metioned. Thanks for the post and I haven't said anything cause I don't want to admit it but, southeast florida is due for a hit. I know there there is no such thing as due but, I don't have a good feeling about this hurricane season.

MiamiensisWx · #74 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:26 pm

I agree, southfloridawx2005!

MiamiensisWx · #75 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:13 pm

Wow... the recent disvussions from the Miami NWS sound just like the ones they released around this time of year in 2004!

#76 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:20 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Wow... the recent disvussions from the Miami NWS sound just like the ones they released around this time of year in 2004!

link please.... thanks

MiamiensisWx · #77 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:24 pm

southfloridawx2005, I don't have any old discussions; however, I found this from 2004 around this time of year...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=517814&highlight=#517814

It sounds so similar to now!

#78 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:37 pm

can anybody say "another round?" :eek:

I hope the pattern changes soon or we are looking like 2004.

MiamiensisWx · #79 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:38 pm

It really looks like a pattern is trying to establish... let's watch as it continues to unfold...

#80 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:40 pm

It really looks like a pattern is trying to establish... let's watch as it continues to unfold...

Yep, I'll be watching it everday. I certainly would like to see the 2004 NWS Miami area weather discussions....

If anybody has them please let me know how I can get them.

Repeat of 2004 setup for Florida

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