Will New Orleans be hit by another major hurricane?

[zoeyann]

That's what is in the preliminary report. They have winds gusting to 160 in Grand Isle. It says that winds reached 125 when the storm was 35 miles SW of New Orleans, and gusts of 130 in Houma when it pasted over. The thing is I don't know how to find the finalized report. But gusts to 160 in Grand Isle WOW!!!

[AussieMark]

that would of been gusts not sustained winds I thought?

[Pearl River]

AussieMark wrote

that would of been gusts not sustained winds I thought?

By 11:20 pm est the winds at New Orleans had exceeded 100 miles an hour and by midnight the storm was 35 miles southwest of New Orleans. The winds reached 125 miles an hour at 11:46 pm at which time power failed at the New Orleans Weather Bureau Office and advisory responsibility was transferred back to Miami.

It does not say gusts to 125. This again is from the Preliminary Report.

[zoeyann]

sorry Pearl, I am slow, did not mean to step on your post

[Pearl River]

Zoey, not a problem.

[wxman57]

AussieMark wrote

that would of been gusts not sustained winds I thought?

By 11:20 pm est the winds at New Orleans had exceeded 100 miles an hour and by midnight the storm was 35 miles southwest of New Orleans. The winds reached 125 miles an hour at 11:46 pm at which time power failed at the New Orleans Weather Bureau Office and advisory responsibility was transferred back to Miami.

It does not say gusts to 125. This again is from the Preliminary Report.

"Reached" doesn't necessarily mean sustained 1-minute winds, either. I'd interpret that statement as saying that they saw peak winds to 125 mph, not gusts. Otherwise, they'd have mentioned higher gusts. I remember Betsy well, I went through the western side of the storm over in Lafayette. Was pretty windy there, too.

[Pearl River]

wxman57

Pearl River wrote:
AussieMark wrote

Quote:
that would of been gusts not sustained winds I thought?




By 11:20 pm est the winds at New Orleans had exceeded 100 miles an hour and by midnight the storm was 35 miles southwest of New Orleans. The winds reached 125 miles an hour at 11:46 pm at which time power failed at the New Orleans Weather Bureau Office and advisory responsibility was transferred back to Miami.

It does not say gusts to 125. This again is from the Preliminary Report.


"Reached" doesn't necessarily mean sustained 1-minute winds, either. I'd interpret that statement as saying that they saw peak winds to 125 mph, not gusts. Otherwise, they'd have mentioned higher gusts. I remember Betsy well, I went through the western side of the storm over in Lafayette. Was pretty windy there, too.

You are probably correct, and if it was a gust to 125 mph, they would have called it that.

[Derek Ortt]

the gusts at grand isle are consistent with a 3

what elevation were the gusts to 125 in the report? were they above 10m, because the only reports i have seen of 10m gusts were 105 m.p.h.

[CHRISTY]

U know honestly i enjoy tracking hurricanes alot but i think this new orleans issue needs 2 be left alone there are thousands of people homeless and without jobs and probably most of there lives will never be the same again... i wish new orleans good luck but by NO mean i will not talk about another hurricane going into that area when there people still going threw a very difficult times.i hope 06 will spare those people.

[LaPlaceFF]

U know honestly i enjoy tracking hurricanes alot but i think this new orleans issue needs 2 be left alone there are thousands of people homeless and without jobs and probably most of there lives will never be the same again... i wish new orleans good luck but by NO mean i will not talk about another hurricane going into that area when there people still going threw a very difficult times.i hope 06 will spare those people.

Thank you CHRISTY. Only now, especially where I live at (La Place, LA) it is slowly getting back to normal.

[MiamiensisWx]

New Orleans is also hogging all the attention. Many other areas in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have it just as bad or even worse.

[Pearl River]

This is why you hear so much about New Orleans:

More than 6,000 ocean vessels annually move through New Orleans on the Mississippi River.

The Port of New Orleans is the only seaport in the U.S. served by six class one rail lines — Burlington Northern/Santa Fe, Canadian National, CSX, Kansas City Southern, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific.

New Orleans is the nation’s premier coffee-handling port, with 14 warehouses, more than 5.5 million feet of storage space and six roasting facilities in a 20 mile radius. Two of the most modern bulk processing operations are located in New Orleans: Dupuy Storage and Forwarding Corp. (first in U.S.) and Silocaf of New Orleans, Inc. (world’s largest).

And the biggest reason is it is a center of oil/gas distribution.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The comparison to Betsy is not that accurate in that Betsy traveled further inland over southeast La. whereas Katrina moved over extreme southeast La. and then made landfall again along the Miss coast. Had Katrina been on a true Betsy like track La. would have been much harder hit.

I know you readily acknowledged this as just your opinion; but I find that a comparison to Betsy, given the "official" Katrina report to be quite appropriate. Katrina was HUGE... Betsy was HUGE (Fl. sun sentinel reports Betsy was as much as 500 plus miles wide--right there with Katrina at the very least). Katrina was, according to the much heralded "report" a rapidly decaying "Cat 3" storm at landfall, The "official" Betsy report had it as a strong 4 just before landfall, (like Katrina) and a STRONG 3 at landfall...(somewhat akin to Katrina, albeit the numbers suggest Betsy was actually stronger). Hence, in Betsy you very MUCH had a "Katrina" taking the "Betsy" path. And yet, Betsy didn't do even remotely the damage to the New Orleans area, (even though NO was in the much dreaded NE quadrant of Betsy); that Katrina did with New Orleans on the "weak" side of the allegedly weaker storm. Like I've said all along, the figures just don't jive; and the analogy to Betsy is quite appropriate inasmuch as Betsy, in all respects, appears to have been at least a Katrina, taking a path west of New Orleans... with far less damage. (And yes there was flooding with Betsy as well; but not nearly on as massive a scale.)

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

New Orleans is also hogging all the attention. Many other areas in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have it just as bad or even worse.

With all due respect, AVW, New Orleans isn't "hogging" anything; and I assure you that in terms of both lives and overall $$$ damage, NO PLACE had worse damage, regardless the cause. Frankly I wish I could say otherwise. The ones to blame for all the New Orleans attention are the MEDIA. And it's probably market based. New Orleans IS after all, part of one of the five largest port systems in the entire WORLD, and the largest in the United States. It WAS a metro area of over 1.3 million people, and the damages in terms of economic impact, and loss of human lives IS indeed staggering. This is NOT to detract from the incredible and horrendous damage done to the MGC, or anywhere else. It was truly catastrophic, and my heart goes out to those people. But one can hardly blame one area as "hogging" the news when what makes the news is decided by those in the centers of the media--and not "New Orleans."

That said, I reiterate, the devastation in Missssippi, and to a lesser extent but nonetheless hardly trivial, in Alabama and Florida also "should" be getting more attention. Human tragedy is human tragedy no matter where it occurs; and all victims have my sympathy and prayers.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that the sustained winds from Katrina in New Orleans were higher than Betsy as they were suatained at the border of cat 1 and 2 (around 95 m.p.h.) Based upon the gust to sustained ratio documented here, this could have resulted in gusts to 135-140 in New Orleans from Katrina

[Extremeweatherguy]

I believe that the sustained winds from Katrina in New Orleans were higher than Betsy as they were suatained at the border of cat 1 and 2 (around 95 m.p.h.) Based upon the gust to sustained ratio documented here, this could have resulted in gusts to 135-140 in New Orleans from Katrina

I doubt N.O. saw 135-140mph gusts from Katrina...especially since the left side of the storm usually has the speed of motion reduced from the speed of the storms winds. I would guess that the max gusts to N.O. from Katrina were 115-125mph. They may have been 140 at the immediate landfall areas though. Most of any extreme damage you see is caused by the storm surge and the wind damage was not that "extreme". North of Lake Ponchartrain I think that max gusts were probably only 100-110mph. I just can not believe that gusts would have reached 140 in a WEAKENING cat. 3...especially if you are not on the coast.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I believe that the sustained winds from Katrina in New Orleans were higher than Betsy as they were suatained at the border of cat 1 and 2 (around 95 m.p.h.) Based upon the gust to sustained ratio documented here, this could have resulted in gusts to 135-140 in New Orleans from Katrina

I doubt N.O. saw 135-140mph gusts from Katrina...especially since the left side of the storm usually has the speed of motion reduced from the speed of the storms winds. I would guess that the max gusts to N.O. from Katrina were 115-125mph. They may have been 140 at the immediate landfall areas though. Most of any extreme damage you see is caused by the storm surge and the wind damage was not that "extreme". North of Lake Ponchartrain I think that max gusts were probably only 100-110mph. I just can not believe that gusts would have reached 140 in a WEAKENING cat. 3...especially if you are not on the coast.

While I'm not saying I concur completely with your assessment; logically I do. According to all the "official" records Betsy WAS a "Katrina" that took a path leaving New Orleans smack in the NE Quadrant, and yet, the damage done by Katrina was far greater. Now I know folks will bring up the "surge, the surge" and I'm not arguing that point. What I AM stating is that the idea that "Had Katrina taken a path like Betsy the damage would have been MUCH worse..." is one that employs a contradiction in logic. This could not be according to history, as Betsy appears to have been very much a Katrina-like storm "by the record" and took that much dreaded path, with far less damage. Either this relegates the idea that a Katrina-Betsy path as hypothetically a much worse catastrophic scenario being little more than a conjectured myth; or else Katrina was indeed a much more powerful storm. Can't have it both ways.

A2K

[sunny]

New Orleans is also hogging all the attention. Many other areas in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have it just as bad or even worse.

It is the media's choice to focus on New Orleans, not ours. If you think for one minute this has been fun - think again. This has been nothing but one HUGE nightmare - that doesn't seem to want to end. It is not OUR fault the media does what it does.

[Derek Ortt]

the eye wall of Betsy missed New Orleans so it was not a Katrina that scored a direct hit with the most damgerous NE eye wall. Basically, New Orleans was in the Psacagoula/Ocean Springs zone

as was stated here many times, 100 m.p.h. sustained, ablut what New Orleans received according to the NHC report, does provide gusts approaching 140 m.p.h. and at Pass Christian, gusts may have been over 150, veyr consistent with a marginal 3

[Audrey2Katrina]

I can't speak for anyone else's comments; but as to my own, I'm well aware that the actual center of circulation from Betsy passed to the west of New Orleans. By the NHC actual data, within 35 miles. Now I can't be certain, as I'm not quite as familiar with the mileages in Mississippi as I am with those of SE Louisiana; but I believe 35 mi from the center, probably translates to within 25 miles of the eyewall as both storms had enormous eyes. Regardless of which of those two you prefer to employ, I would think the distance from exactl landfall near Pearlington, or the mouth of the Pearl River to Ocean Springs as something more akin to 50 or 60 miles, and to Pascagoula considerably further at 70-80 or more miles further east.

Again, it is a moot point as in either scenario you have the territories in question IN that NE quadrant of extreme damage. My point was not that New Orleans had a "direct center of circulation" hit from Betsy; rather it was that in Betsy we had a "Katrina-type storm" that passed slightly west, which many have suggested would have boded a far worse scenario for New Orleans (which by the way had MORE people in it at the time of Betsy). It would appear, assuming all reported data to be correct, that this assumption, in historical context, is inaccurate.

A2K