Doomsday storms

[wxmann_91]

20 foot surge at Miami Beach?

Please try and be realistic with these unlikely scenarios. It just is not possible for any place on the EC of Florida to have a surge over 15, and even 10 is nearly impossible and would take a Katrina sized cat 5. The reaosn is the same shelf profile as Cayman. Only Biscayne Bay would see a surge of 15 to 20 feet, but even that would be mitigated by a 15 foot high ridge line near the Bay.

A cane in Miami,e specially a major, is a pure wind event

My hypothetical scenario is pretty much based on the 1947 cane. A large steady-state hurricane (which is starting an ERC at landfall) that is moving at about 10 mph. I mean, the reason I put 20 ft instead of 15 ft (which I thought of doing initially) is because if Andrew produced a 16 ft surge, and it was a strengthening, small, fast-moving cane, wouldn't a Katrina or Floyd-sized cane moving much slower produce a higher storm surge? Correct me if I wrong here, Derek, I try to be as accurate and realistic with my scenarios as possible.

[skysummit]

I don' think the the speed of the storms movement has much to do with the height of the storm surge. Doesn't it have more to do with the wind and pressure that creates the large dome of water in the center? I may be wrong.

[Derek Ortt]

Andrews 17 feet was in Biscayne Bay. The surges on the ocean were all under 10 feet and simulations indicated that even for a large surge, the ocean cannot produce a surge much above 10 feet, even for a large cat 5. Of Sfla, only Dade has Biscayne Bay (and even that has the ridge line I mentioned earlier), the rest of the coast is just like Cayman, meaning Miami canes are wind events, which as Wilma showed, are more than sufficient to be destructive

[Jim Cantore]

Andrews 17 feet was in Biscayne Bay. The surges on the ocean were all under 10 feet and simulations indicated that even for a large surge, the ocean cannot produce a surge much above 10 feet, even for a large cat 5. Of Sfla, only Dade has Biscayne Bay (and even that has the ridge line I mentioned earlier), the rest of the coast is just like Cayman, meaning Miami canes are wind events, which as Wilma showed, are more than sufficient to be destructive

Andrew however was an extremely small storm

although I do agree that the EC of Florida isnt the most surgeprone of places

[Derek Ortt]

it was small, but had a fairly large radius of 100KT winds, of about 20NM (from Homestead to the old NHC). In addition, Biscayne Bay is not very large so I am not entirely sure that a larger storm would produce a higher surge in the Bay (it would produce higher waves on Miami Beach)

[MGC]

Doomsday as in killing people or property destruction? As far as killing people, Hurricane Mitch was the doomsday hurricane. I doubt we would see as many people die in America. Here is my doomsday hurricane for the USA. Hits Miami/Hollywood/Ft. Lauerdale area as massive large circulation Cat-5. Crosses GOM and hits Houston/Galveston area as strong slow moving Cat-4. Massive property loss in the Mia area due to wind and Houston area due to surge and wind. Recurves across Arkansas then moves into West Va causing massive floods like Agnes did. I would have had it hit the New Orleans area but things are mostly destroyed there anyway......MGC

[Jim Cantore]

it was small, but had a fairly large radius of 100KT winds, of about 20NM (from Homestead to the old NHC). In addition, Biscayne Bay is not very large so I am not entirely sure that a larger storm would produce a higher surge in the Bay (it would produce higher waves on Miami Beach)

good point

besides, Miami beach isnt as low lying as say... New Orleans

[Derek Ortt]

only place I beleieve that we will see Mitch type deaths is NYC, and there we could see Bengledesh deaths due to how surge prone it is and the population density.

[Jim Cantore]

only place I beleieve that we will see Mitch type deaths is NYC, and there we could see Bengledesh deaths due to how surge prone it is and the population density.

No doubt, Especially moving at high speeds as storms moving up the coast will accelerate most of the time, less time to prepare, especially with track uncertainty, 10,000-100,000+ deaths possible

[Derek Ortt]

Miami Beach is pancake flat and is the barrier island. But, because it is on the ocean where the water is deep, surge is very low in that location

[Jim Cantore]

where instead you have the big shelf in the gulf

[wxmann_91]

Andrews 17 feet was in Biscayne Bay. The surges on the ocean were all under 10 feet and simulations indicated that even for a large surge, the ocean cannot produce a surge much above 10 feet, even for a large cat 5. Of Sfla, only Dade has Biscayne Bay (and even that has the ridge line I mentioned earlier), the rest of the coast is just like Cayman, meaning Miami canes are wind events, which as Wilma showed, are more than sufficient to be destructive

Well thanks for responding. Good info to know.

[Jim Cantore]

Andrews 17 feet was in Biscayne Bay. The surges on the ocean were all under 10 feet and simulations indicated that even for a large surge, the ocean cannot produce a surge much above 10 feet, even for a large cat 5. Of Sfla, only Dade has Biscayne Bay (and even that has the ridge line I mentioned earlier), the rest of the coast is just like Cayman, meaning Miami canes are wind events, which as Wilma showed, are more than sufficient to be destructive

Well thanks for responding. Good info to know.

Even with cat 2 winds there, Wilma still caused a ton of mayhem

[Weatherfreak000]

My List.....

My Recurve Disaster...


My ATL/EPAC Cat 5 haha.


Another EPAC Storm...


Kinda Realistic East Coast strike



NYC Hit



Florida, LA, Texas, and Mexico Hurricane



Disaster believeable Lousiana hit.

[Jim Cantore]

those are mean

[wxmann_91]

My List.....

My Recurve Disaster...

That's the best place to put a Cat 5, since aside from the coast of southwest LA, that area of Florida where you have the first landfall is one of the most rural areas of the Gulf Coast. Of course the second landfall location is doomsday.

[Weatherfreak000]

My List.....

My Recurve Disaster...

That's the best place to put a Cat 5, since aside from the coast of southwest LA, that area of Florida where you have the first landfall is one of the most rural areas of the Gulf Coast. Of course the second landfall location is doomsday.

Actually I was just looking for an easy way to get a storm across Florida with some strength to it. So that's why the landfall is like that really.

[cheezyWXguy]

o ya thats real possible

[cheezyWXguy]

sry i frogot to quote

[cheezyWXguy]

this on the other hand...........

when this caught my eye i just couldnt stop laffing