Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.
If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.
That's an interesting formula. Thanks for sharing it.