95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:17 pm

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

10:30 PM TWO.Nothing new.

#62 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:23 pm

Tomorrow could be a very interesting day for this system.

mike815 · #63 Postby **mike815** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:25 pm

It sure will be.

#64 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:49 pm

The NHC is predicting the low to be deepening fast during the next 24 hours.

#65 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:00 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211012
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST MON NOV 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Nothing new.

#66 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:41 am

7:05 AM EDT TWD:

FARTHER E...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N46W 20N40W AND IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKLY-DEEPENING 992 MB LOW NEAR 30N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S/SW TO 24N38W 15N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-45W WHILE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FARTHER E FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
27W-40W.

992 MB, THIS LOW IS DEEPENING FASTER THAN EXPECTED!

mike815 · #67 Postby **mike815** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:51 am

Wow yeah id say. very interesting.

#68 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:54 am

I know most people reject Accuweather but in this case this is the only image that I have found that focuses on 95L.

If anyone is offended, I'M SORRY. :roll:

By the way, since the first computer run, there hasn't been any response from the computer models, what happened?

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:30 am

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

00z NOGAPS

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

00z CMC

#70 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:53 am

cycloneye wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 211012
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST MON NOV 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Nothing new.

IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE NOTHING NEW UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD.

#71 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:55 am

Very impressive

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:59 am

35kts at 30.0n-40,0w,992 mbs according to NRL.

Budro999 · #73 Postby **Budro999** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:41 am

Several different phase diagrams indicate that this system is already a shallow warm-core system and will transition toward being a deep warm-core system. If the system is shallow warm-core, then there would be no problem with classifying it as a subtropical cyclone, and if it becomes a deeper warm-core system, then classification as a tropical cyclone would seem appropriate. However, if you all will remember back to what the NHC did with Hurricane Vince, these same phase diagrams indicated that Vince was subtropical/tropical two full days before the NHC admitted that there was a tropical system located in the NE Atlantic. Therefore, HURAKAN may be right in saying that the NHC is waiting for the system to move south, as forecasters there have already proven that they are not necessarily trigger happy when it comes to classifying systems like this. In my opinion, there would be no problem, from a meteorological standpoint, with classifying the low as a subtropical cyclone with the information we have now.

fasterdisaster · #74 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:42 am

Looks very close to subtropical.

Forecaster Colby · #75 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:50 am

Yeah, I think that's subtropical. Should transition and be quite a storm in the next few days.

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:28 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211605
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST MON NOV 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

11:30 AM TWO.

wxmann_91 · #77 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:55 am

Impressive...

If it's not subtropical already, then it's tropical.

Forecaster Colby · #78 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:20 pm

.........

Whats with the NHC and subtropical systems? It's a shallow, warm-core system with convection near the center drawing some of its energy from baroclinic forcing and the rest from warm waters...if that isn't subtropical, I'd like to know what is.

superfly · #79 Postby **superfly** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:25 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:.........

Whats with the NHC and subtropical systems? It's a shallow, warm-core system with convection near the center drawing some of its energy from baroclinic forcing and the rest from warm waters...if that isn't subtropical, I'd like to know what is.

That.

Damar91 · #80 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:04 pm

I noticed the two runs have it starting to move south and then southwest, any chance this thing has a shot to make it all the way over here?

95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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