Gamma No Threat to FL

[mike815]

Of course everyone is wrong some time. Of course were would the fun be if we were right all the time.

[HURAKAN]

Right now I'm in the FIU library (GL) watching outside the artificial lake that we have and I notice that since yesterday the winds have shifted completely. Yestday they were coming from the east, and now they are gently blowing from the west. I can see it easily because the way the waves are moving in the lake. The cold front is changing the weather, by the way, it's very gray outside and it was raining in the early morning hours.

[APRS-CW0262]

You may be right... However, I am not so sure... the temp difference may be what sets this thing off... lets remember that the core of a tropical system is warmer than the surrounding air... This colder air around it, may help set it off, at least to start... Its that temperature difference drives the system basically... Right now looks like it is holding its own...
/quote]

Right now it's in a mT airmass. When it moves north it will be in a cP (mod) airmass. The temp diff won't make a diff. The temp diff does drive it...but you have to remember, the REAL culprit in development is not necessarily temp delta...but instability caused by the delta. When this system gets out of it's warm envelope...it will move into a stable environment...represented by the strato-cu field. You see it every year in the EPAC. Even though the waters will be ok for sustaining development...the environment will be capped...and so will convection.

Basically "Gamma" will be mixing in a lot of dry air at the sfc....and that will cap the environment and cause the convective temp the skyrocket....which will basically mean the temperature difference will have to be a lot greater than will be available.

Right on Air Force MET!

[mike815]

Yeah the weather is fantastic!

[fci]

Couple of things:

- Would "Gamma" be a "she"?
People refer to it as "she would " this and that...

- With AFM talking about "temperature delta" wouldn't it be cool if the Central Atlantic spawned Gamma and the NW Carib spawned "Delta"?
Then we would have the temp delta of Delta!

Sorry, couldn't resist....


I'll return to "lurking status"......

[mike815]

good one lol

[HURAKAN]

Right now, the central Atlantic low pressure is in a very dry, hostile environment. If it doesn't change before a strong cold front gets there, development is very unlikely.

[mike815]

yup it is running out of time the low in the central atlantic.

[Air Force Met]

We have all been know to be wrong in our predictions.....

That's true...and I'm not imune. Now...if you would like to discuss the meteorological data to why I might be incorrect in my assumptions...I'm game. I see 80-90 kts of wind over so.flo....and right now I see a whole lot of stable air/cold air strato-cu sitting over the GoM with low THP's and lot's of dry mid-tropospheric air. That's how I came to my forecast. What do you see differently?

[Stormcenter]

Air Force Met is 100% correct. This baby will be nothing more than maybe a rain maker and a little breeze for S.Florida. Thank goodness!!!!!!!! I don't know about you guys but I've had enough. I had to help my brother gut out his house in LA. after Katrina and it was rough. I'm ready to put this season to rest.

[mike815]

I hope your right, we will see how this turns out.

[Brent]

Why is it the only rational thread to this topic is coming from Brent? People there is no way this storm system effects SFL besides for some high clouds...IF it develops it will pass at least 100 Miles south of the keys off to the ENE...

The subject line makes it sound like this is another Wilma. IT IS NOT. People need to look at the calendar and at all the cold air in the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

who cares about the GOM....this thing will just skim it and the temps are in the lower 80s all the way...the straits of FL are still very warm.

[mike815]

Yes the straits are still warm.

[CHRISTY]

agree..

[DESTRUCTION5]

who cares about the GOM....this thing will just skim it and the temps are in the lower 80s all the way...the straits of FL are still very warm.

He said not hing about the water...THE AIR...

[gatorcane]

well that cold front is in the process of weakening now....and high pressure is building in behind it....

That is why the "cold air" clouds in the GOM are moving WSW....around the flow of the high to the north....

cold fronts don't last that long across south FL.

[Windtalker1]

We have all been know to be wrong in our predictions.....

That's true...and I'm not imune. Now...if you would like to discuss the meteorological data to why I might be incorrect in my assumptions...I'm game. I see 80-90 kts of wind over so.flo....and right now I see a whole lot of stable air/cold air strato-cu sitting over the GoM with low THP's and lot's of dry mid-tropospheric air. That's how I came to my forecast. What do you see differently?

Correct me if I'm wrong....I see a developing System to the South of us with tropical moisture streaming North and Northeast. I see a "stalled" weak cold front hung up at the Lake and will not move through S Florida till sometime Tuesday. Seems to me that the tropical moisture is winning the war on this southern movement of a very weak cold front and has stopped it in it's tracks. This storm if it becomes one will no way be a central Fl event. It will be an event S of the Lake....remember, I'm no expert....I have alot to learn and the only thing I have going for me is the correct track I did for Katrina and Wilma by looking at all the facts before making my prediction....Thanks for any help you can give me on this matter......

[Brent]

who cares about the GOM....this thing will just skim it and the temps are in the lower 80s all the way...the straits of FL are still very warm.

I'm not going to argue with you... but it's not about that. It's about a cold front that this thing isn't going to plow into. Even if this grows into some monster hurricane, it's going to be falling apart and not fully tropical when it passes Florida.

The topic title is very misleading "Growing concern over possible Gamma". What is the growing concern??? This is not Wilma and it never will be. The NWS offices down there barely even mention it, and they certainly don't see it as a major problem.

[Damar91]

could someone post the current air temps and the forecast air temps for the next few days? That might settle that part of the discussion.