Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread

[P.K.]

I didn't see the intensity run but until a few minutes ago and I didn't post it as it would cause pandemonium.

Fair enough, I shouldn't let things like this surprise me so much given the season we have had.

[cycloneye]

[Anonymous]

Link?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 306/3.html

Thank you

[bigmike]

I would assume chances of this hitting the us are pretty slim this time of year no?

[brunota2003]

I'd hate to say this, but, What are the chances of this thing becoming an east coast rider??? I'd say pretty good due to all the fronts moving thru, but I'll let a pro-met answer, or someone who knows what will probably happen...

[HURAKAN]

I like the LBAR model, always so optimistic!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 13, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is located over the southern Windward
Islands in the vicinity of The Grenadines. This system has changed
little in organization over the past several hours...and most of
the heavier showers are located to the east of the area of lowest
pressure. Upper-level winds are marginally favorable for
development...and it is possible that this system could become a
tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward
to west-northwestward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical depression forms...this
system could bring some gusty winds and locally heavy rains to
portions of the windward and Leeward Islands over the next day or
so.

Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through
Monday.

Forecaster Pasch



The NHC says nothing about 93L, seems like their interest for the area has dropped to 0%.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W S OF 20N IS MOVING W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE VERY NEAR THE GRENADINES...OR NEAR
12.5N61W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY ALL THE HEAVY TSTM
ACTIVITY STILL E OF THE ISLANDS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/LOW IS OUTRUNNING THIS AREA AND IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW IS EMANATING FROM THE W/CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND INTERIOR SOUTH
AMERICA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 62W...AND THIS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH
IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION FARTHER E. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 51W-60W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALREADY MOVING ACROSS BARBADOS AND FROM MARTINIQUE NWD TO THE
ST. KITTS/ANTIGUA AREA. THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN MAY RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.



1 Pm EST Discussion.

[WindRunner]

GFDL trashed the system again, like at 00Z.


864
WHXX04 KWBC 131718
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.8 58.7 290./ 4.1
6 12.2 60.7 280./19.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[SouthFloridawx]

hey guys it might look like the LLC has left the convection behind. It seems to be moving quick.

[WindRunner]

18Z models, SHIPS backs down a little on development.

979
WHXX01 KWBC 131835
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051113 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051113 1800 051114 0600 051114 1800 051115 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 61.5W 12.9N 62.8W 13.4N 63.8W 13.9N 64.6W
BAMM 12.6N 61.5W 12.8N 63.2W 13.3N 64.6W 13.7N 65.6W
A98E 12.6N 61.5W 13.1N 63.6W 13.1N 65.5W 12.8N 67.3W
LBAR 12.6N 61.5W 13.3N 63.0W 14.5N 64.2W 15.7N 65.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051115 1800 051116 1800 051117 1800 051118 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 65.4W 14.4N 66.9W 13.7N 68.6W 12.9N 70.7W
BAMM 14.1N 66.7W 14.1N 68.9W 13.5N 71.3W 12.8N 73.2W
A98E 12.5N 68.8W 12.2N 71.9W 11.5N 75.1W 9.9N 78.6W
LBAR 16.5N 65.7W 17.9N 65.6W 18.1N 63.1W 18.6N 57.9W
SHIP 36KTS 45KTS 56KTS 60KTS
DSHP 36KTS 45KTS 56KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 61.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 57.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[fuzzyblow]

Ahh, you naysayer! The both of you! Let us have our fun, even if it is only one night! We don't get two invests within 9 hours in the middle of Novemeber very often, now do we?

LOL, you must have great succes with women...

But he's only 14.

lol...He will...

[WxGuy1]

20-30kts of shear over the area right now... Tough to get much organization with that --> http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shrZ.html ... A look at IR shows the shear pretty well too, with moderate westerly upper-level flow over much of the area.

[Ivanhater]

well this thing is a trooper, its doing well under the circumstances

[P.K.]

GFDL trashed the system again, like at 00Z.

Just a slight change from the previous run then... The next run will be interesting to see if this continues or it does what it did for the 6amGMT run again.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 131600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 13 NOV 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 67W AT 15/1800Z WITH A POSSIBLE 16/0600Z FIX
MISSION IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

NHC has increasing interest in this system as the plan of the day shows.

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear is decreasing in the south eastern carib.

[SouthFloridawx]

this system looks like it has multiple circulations.

[cycloneye]

PRZ012-141315-
CULEBRA-
352 PM AST SUN NOV 13 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AST MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
81 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
81 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 77. EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
81 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS 87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. CHANCE
OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS 87 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
78. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 78. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 87 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.



caribepr I posted what you can expect for Culebra .

[abajan]

Judging by the flooded condition of streets etc. it must have been raining steadily for the last 4 hrs. or so here. (I don't know for sure because I was indoors attending a church luncheon.)

Since early morning, our Met office has been warning of heavy rains, thunderstorms with gusts in excess of 50 mph and flooding in flood prone and low lying areas. I haven't seen any high winds or heard any thunder as yet, though.

This is typical November weather for Barbados. It's usually our wettest month.