GFDL predicts invest21l to be 163 mph in 120h an pressure 91

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
frankthetank
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 527
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: La Crosse, WI

#61 Postby frankthetank » Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:03 pm

Yeah..thats even better yet...a Cat 5 cane hitting VENEZUELA...perhaps around the Lake Maracaibo area...that would do wonders for the price of oil :-)...

I think we've had enough deadly canes for this year...fish gods take this one away.
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#62 Postby Steve H. » Fri Sep 02, 2005 8:25 am

OK, Hyperstorm, gotta give you this one. Looks like your assessment was accurate. 92L is fizzling. Unless things change today, 92L is a gonner. Good call.
0 likes   
Top
truballer#1

#63 Postby truballer#1 » Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:06 pm

Steering currents pushed the invest92l somewhat south of due west, bringing the low so close to the equator that the low was unable to use the Earth's spin to help it maintain its own spin. A tropical system cannot maintain the spin needed to develop if it ventures too close to the equator, since a portion of the Earth's spin is required. There has never been a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic spin up south of 8N.

Nevertheless, this wave needs to be watched the next few days as it tracks westward towards the Leeward Islands. When the wave moves a bit further north two or three days from now, the low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.

Right now since its weak the gfdl won't say it being strong, but
I think if it does go back a little north and organize a lot better I wouldnt be surprised to see the gfdl forcasting it again a strong hurricane.
0 likes   
Top
truballer#1

#64 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:26 pm

looks like invest 92l is moved up north and should develope as antisipated. Slower than expected since it is below 10N. I still think it could be a major hurricane sometime. I f it does develope well gfdl mostly likly make it a cat 3 again or higher
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#65 Postby fci » Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:05 pm

truballer#1 wrote:looks like invest 92l is moved up north and should develope as antisipated. Slower than expected since it is below 10N. I still think it could be a major hurricane sometime. I f it does develope well gfdl mostly likly make it a cat 3 again or higher


And you are basing this forecast on?????
0 likes   
Top
no advance
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: merritt is.

#66 Postby no advance » Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:15 pm

I think the mjo is in the altlantic What do you all think?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:
Contact wxmann_91

#67 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:39 pm

no advance wrote:I think the mjo is in the altlantic What do you all think?


The MJO is not in its wet phase right now and frankly I now think that we were all too concerned about it. But heck during the last wet phase we saw Katrina.

92L is crap. Thankfully, or else it could've posed a threat to the islands or the US.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 61 guests