We are getting Very Close to a Center Now

[Stormcenter]

Looks like whatever is there will get ripped to pieces by Hispanola.

Don't see it.

[boca]

How can a system be ripped up by Hispanola if theirs no circulation there.In my opinion I don't think 92L will develop it looks like crap.

[Stormcenter]

How can a system be ripped up by Hispanola if theirs no circulation there.In my opinion I don't think 92L will develop it looks like crap

Hmmmmm I wouldn't say that so soon.

[deltadog03]

yeah, i woudn't either....it has gotten better this afternoon...if it continues...i could see a TD tom...easily...

[BonesXL]

92L still maintaining it convection and as a matter of fact it is looking a little better this evening....I have to think it meant be a TD by tomorrow....

[Brent]

How can a system be ripped up by Hispanola if theirs no circulation there.In my opinion I don't think 92L will develop it looks like crap.

Well... if it does develop, it's going to get shredded if it goes along the coast of Hispanola or over it. I still am not sold on development, although I think it will become a TD or weak TS.

[Nimbus]

The easterlies are currently real strong and sweeping 92L west in a hurry but they will start to ease up south of Hispaniola.
The southern part of the wave is starting to roll like a tumbleweed and the convection near 16.75N 67W was a little more persistent then the pop up showers seen earlier in the day.
Somewhere between here and Jamaica we should see a better concentration of showers and possibly an LLC.
I can't see this thing looking like a tumbleweed all the way to Mexico since there is high pressure building north just ahead.

[Huckster]

How can a system be ripped up by Hispanola if theirs no circulation there.In my opinion I don't think 92L will develop it looks like crap.

Well... if it does develop, it's going to get shredded if it goes along the coast of Hispanola or over it. I still am not sold on development, although I think it will become a TD or weak TS.

An encounter with Hispaniola does not guarantee this system's demise. It is difficult for an very intense hurricane to strike Hispaniola and redevelop its core (Cat. 3 Emily, 1987), but Georges did an excellent job of surviving. There have been more than a couple of tropical storms that moved directly across Hispaniola the long way and went on to become notable hurricanes, especially the 1900 Galveston hurricane and Frederic. The wave that became Elena bore some interesting similarities to this wave, I think. It was moving quickly (though more quickly than or current wave), fought dry air, and moved over Hispaniola. Basically as soon as it moved away from Hispaniola, it developed into a TD between there and Cuba (my guess is it may have been organizing just prior to crossing Hispaniola, but I am not old enough to remember anything like that, since I was only 3 years old), and the rest is history. This wave still has a good chance of developing, IMO, mainly after it passes Hispaniola.

[EDR1222]

92L Looks better on IR satellite this evening. On water vapor it still appears the ULL to the north of it is having a negative effect. Is the ULL suppose to move away from it anytime soon?

[Derek Ortt]

this seems more like Jerry of 1995 than Elena of 1985. Jerry was quite similar, a wave with pressure falls, but was hindered by strong shear and hispaniola. A marginal TS eventually did form out of it just as it was making landfall in Florida.

[EDR1222]

I remember Jerry. That occured as there were three others out in the Atlantic as well. Humberto, Iris, and Karen if I recall.

[deltadog03]

i see it getting very close....the LLC is almost completly closed imo....SSE of PR

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This shows almost nothing of a cyclone south of PR.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

[deltadog03]

This shows almost nothing of a cyclone south of PR.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

how you figure bro, that looks like the area that its trying to for the LLC...but, its my opinion

[jkt21787]

This shows almost nothing of a cyclone south of PR.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

I see signs of perhaps a very broad circulation, not closed off, not a TD, but perhaps getting organized. It may need most of the night IF it even does decide to become something more than a wave/invest

[Stratusxpeye]

Def looks like it is. Has very evident circulation trying with that radar.

[Frank P]

the radar presentation this evening fro 92 L is not nearly as impressive nor organized as it was late this afternoon... looks like the center, if indeed this is the center, is now south of PR and moving off to the west or just north of due west at a rather quick pace

[WeatherEmperor]

we will be at this all night....

<RICKY>

[MGC]

Greeting from Virginia...

I only see a sharp wave axis with no evidence of a closed circulation based on long range radar loop from San Juan. Give this system time. I posted a couple of days ago that I thought it would not develope till near Cuba and I'm still holding to those thoughts.......MGC

[skysummit]

Yup, I think whatever we had earlier today has fallen to pieces. Radar doesn't look nearly as good as it day earlier today. Maybe in another day or so.