Landfall -- Hmmm........

[stormie_skies]

I know I bring this up constantly, but for y'all who think some of us Texans are nutcases for worrying so much about a storm that the models consistantly bring into north Mexico....take a look at the archives for Claudette.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/CLAUDETTE.shtml?

Claudette was a relatively slow moving storm, which gave everyone a little more time to correct themselves, but look where the NHC track put her 3 days out - at the TX/MX border, based on a consensus of the global models. The steering current that would take her there? A ridge that was supposed to build in over the east Texas coast. According to the NHC discussions, the models didn't even begin to consider the weaker, slower ridge until about 1 1/2 days before Claudette would skirt the upper Texas coast on her way in to Matagorta....

I don't know how much the models have improved at initializing and predicting the strength of ridges or the weaknesses forming in them, but the changes in course of other storms last year and this year tell me it still isn't spot on. If Emily continues to move at the rate she's moving, it wouldn't take her very long to find a weakness after she is in the Gulf, if one were to exist - and that seems to be an open question at this time.

The shape of the Texas coast is another thing to consider....because of the angle its on, a storm moving due west will effect the coast significantly for many miles on its way in.... we still got pretty gusty winds, squalls and significant coastal flooding from Claudette, and she was a Cat 1 ..... even if a Cat 3 + made landfall well south of our area, I am sure we would feel significant effects...

[Nimbus]

The 11 AM forecast mentioned the possibility for a significant shift north in the track.

A lot is going to depend on the interaction with the Yucatan.
Earlier this morning as Emily weakened we had a little wobble west but the overall trend still has been near 290.
Emily looks like she is picking up steam again and will probably turn back toward 300 maybe even NW.
I am just waiting to see how much the Yucatan slows her down.

[Sanibel]

Storm did trend slightly south of the model landfall and should come in south of Cozumel maybe a touch north of Punta Allen. Which means it could traverse more land and lose strength.

The tiny little eye from its beginning is back this morning...

[Sanibel]

Tulum

[Hurricaneman]

Cancun

[azskyman]

Only a guess now....but Playa Del Carmen...just south of Cancun...clipping the southern edge of Cozumel on its way.

[Sanibel]

Most likely the eye will pass south of Cancun by about 50 miles - but who knows?

Playa De Carmen is around 35 miles south of Cancun.


The storm pulled back into NHC track since the west trend earlier.

[Hurricaneman]

True, its close to the track

[Sanibel]

If you look at the visible loop the eye is the small semi-circle located at the bottom of the big "D"-shaped opening in the center. It is tracking slightly south and will miss Cozumel to the south on the present track. The Mayan ruins of Tulum should get the hard side.

With a narrow-cored storm Cancun will probably only get strong tropical storm force winds...

[Normandy]

...Cozumel is guaranteed the worst part of this storm imo.

[Stephanie]

If you look at the visible loop the eye is the small semi-circle located at the bottom of the big "D"-shaped opening in the center. It is tracking slightly south and will miss Cozumel to the south on the present track. The Mayan ruins of Tulum should get the hard side.

With a narrow-cored storm Cancun will probably only get strong tropical storm force winds...

I hope they hold up. I never saw them, but I stayed on the Riviera Maya at the Bahia Principe in 2003 which is also south of Cozumel. Those resorts are going to be devastated!

[Sanibel]

I believe the next to last frame on the visible Floater I spoke of above shows the real eye pop out. If I am reading its course correctly, Emily will landfall 100 miles south of Cancun. Even south of Tulum, which will therefore receive worse winds than Cozumel 20 miles to its north. This is significant with a narrow-core, small-eyed storm...