DENNIS IS BOMBING OUT

wxwatcher91 · #61 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:52 pm

the eye wall has shrunk a bit on recent sat frames... is Dennis going through an EWRC???

mf_dolphin · #62 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:53 pm

Remember that the winds usually lag behind the pressure drops. Dennis isn't done yet I'm afraid.

soonertwister · #63 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:54 pm

I guess we could thank our lucky stars that Dennis rotated westward while over Cuba and spent a long time over land. Had he kept the trajectory he had before landfall there, Key West might have been overwashed, and Dennis could be a 140 mph cane right now, raking the Florida Gulf coast all the way up to the panhandle...

#64 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:54 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:the eye wall has shrunk a bit on recent sat frames... is Dennis going through an EWRC???

The eyewall usually contracts as pressure drops. I don't believe we are at EWRC point yet.. future ones are very likely though.

AL Chili Pepper · #65 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:55 pm

jwayne wrote:I still think 115 is low based on sat presentation. Sticking to 130. I know they are smarter than me, but I'm more stubborn!!!

130 sounds about right to me, once the winds catch up with the rapid pressure drop. Frederic was at 130mph with 943 mb pressure....

#66 Postby **wlfpack81** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Just to throw this in there (looked through this thread and didn't see it) the official definition of a bombing low pressure system aka explosive cyclogenesis is a 1mb per hour drop over 24hrs (24mb in 24hrs).

jwayne · #67 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:59 pm

how about 25 mb in less than 10hours?

#68 Postby **wlfpack81** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:02 pm

Yea jwayne I noticed that. Guess that would be classified as "nuclear cyclogenesis" LOL. But seriously that is a VERY impressive drop in such a short period. I think Dennis will reach Cat 4 strength as well before making landfall. This is starting to look very, very bad for Mobile e-ward into the FL panhandle.

If this storm did the unthinkable and shifted farther west into the NO area...Well, let's hope that doesn't happen b/c it's too late to evac that metro area and vertical evacs won't do any good either.

gkrangers · #69 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:04 pm

Do I have to eat crow? I'm not sure. But waiting for recon is the way to go when it comes to predicting intensity.

soonertwister · #70 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:05 pm

Rapid deepening is 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb in 24 hours. 25 mb in 10 hours probably would qualify, however the NHC definition is maddenly vague.

Let's just assume rapid deepening, whether or not the definition make sense...

Explosive deeping is another bad definition. A drop of 2.5 mb/hr for 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least 6 hours.

Maybe explosive is more accurate, but who knows, with definitions like that. I would think that 25 mb in 10 hours meets the first definition for explosive.

jwayne · #71 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:07 pm

i've got 37 minutes for that announcement. I may be the one eating crow!!

gkrangers · #72 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:10 pm

jwayne wrote:i've got 37 minutes for that announcement. I may be the one eating crow!!

Eh, its not really about that. The storm is rapidly intensifying, and now that the pressure is dropping extremely fast and the temperature and pressure gradients are getting more "normal", the winds will catch up quickly. However, I just think its best to wait to see what the guys flying through the system say. We have seen that the satellite presentation can be decieving when other factors come into play.

ChaserUK · #73 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:11 pm

rapid deepening here guys is 24mb in 24 hours so this thing is so incredible to me you would not believe. I have weathertap hi res of the eye wall which I can't post unless you have weathetap but bugger me - this one is gonna be very serious. Can anyone see anything that might inhibit strengthining?

soonertwister · #74 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:11 pm

Many in New Orleans could climb to safety if the city was inundated, but the rescue operations would be a complete nightmare.

I don't think Dennis is going there, however. That narrow cone means very high confidence in track guidance at NHC. Certainly, we don't want him to get close to there.

I'm also very worried that if Dennis comes in really strong, the interior river basins, like the Ohio and Tennessee Rivers, could experience flooding that they could not cope with. Dennis is forecast to semi-stall in that area, which could lead to huge rainfall totals.

I sure hope all the gates are open right now to make room for what could be a very very serious event.

soonertwister · #75 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:14 pm

ChaserUK wrote:rapid deepening here guys is 24mb in 24 hours so this thing is so incredible to me you would not believe. I have weathertap hi res of the eye wall which I can't post unless you have weathetap but bugger me - this one is gonna be very serious. Can anyone see anything that might inhibit strengthining?

The NHC definition of rapid deepening is 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb in 24 hours. I won't further my discussion of the vagueness of the definition, because I think the current phase is more like explosive deepening, rather than rapid.

Tri-State_1925 · #76 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:14 pm

I personally like to turn to the radar image of the eyewall for an idea of things when hurricanes get to these levels...

soonertwister · #77 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:16 pm

One thing that I noticed from radar images was that it appeared that Dennis has been drawing in dry air near the surface. Whether or not that would be an adequate suppressive force I really do not know, because as we all know, tropical systems are stacked from the surface way up into the sky. Surface dry air may be no more than a nuisance to Dennis, for all I know...

ChaserUK · #78 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:20 pm

soonertwister wrote:
ChaserUK wrote:rapid deepening here guys is 24mb in 24 hours so this thing is so incredible to me you would not believe. I have weathertap hi res of the eye wall which I can't post unless you have weathetap but bugger me - this one is gonna be very serious. Can anyone see anything that might inhibit strengthining?

The NHC definition of rapid deepening is 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb in 24 hours. I won't further my discussion of the vagueness of the definition, because I think the current phase is more like explosive deepening, rather than rapid.

......wow..... when we have Atlantic storms with 24 mb drops in 24 hours we get worried over here. 42 in 24 hours is..well...scarey....

gkrangers · #79 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:20 pm

soonertwister wrote:One thing that I noticed from radar images was that it appeared that Dennis has been drawing in dry air near the surface. Whether or not that would be an adequate suppressive force I really do not know, because as we all know, tropical systems are stacked from the surface way up into the sky. Surface dry air may be no more than a nuisance to Dennis, for all I know...

Dry air isn't going to be an issue...you have to remember that Dennis is very far from the radar...this could hamper the reception the radar is getting.

NC George · #80 Postby **NC George** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:22 pm

jwayne wrote:I still think 115 is low based on sat presentation. Sticking to 130. I know they are smarter than me, but I'm more stubborn!!!

I'm right there with you, buddy. I was watch my local news, saw the sat, and instantly came here to check the Vortex messages, because I knew that sucker was no 105 mph 'cane.

DENNIS IS BOMBING OUT

Who is online