Daily tropical updates and advisories

mf_dolphin · #61 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 8:59 am

For David..

Tropical Advisory No. 2 from Storm2K Weather Central: 8:30am CDT June 11, 2003

AT 5:00 am this morning TD #2 was located at aprroximately Lat 9.9N., Long. 43.3W. Movement was to the west at almost 20 mph. Sustained winds are 30 mph w/ gusts to 40mph. Barometric pressure was estimated at 1008mb or 29.77". Current conditions do favor TD #2 becoming TS Bill within the next 24 hours. If TD #2 intensifies to TS strength winds should stay below the 50 mph mark except for a few gusts in the 55 mph range in the stronger convection near the center. With a slow turn to the WNW expected within the next 24-36 hrs. this system will begin to enter cooler waters and encounter the still strong TUTT nearer to the Leeward Islands which will begin to weaken it as it begins to shear the storm apart.

David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)-Strom2k forecaster

Stormsfury · #62 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 4:02 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
Issued 5 pm EDT - Wed, June 11th, 2003

The NHC is continuing to issue advisories on Tropical Depression #2 ...

Elsewhere Tropical Storm Formation is not expected through Thursday.

Technical Discussion: Tropical Depression #2 continues to show a decent mid-level spin but satellite interpretations and Quikscat passes continue to show no closed-low level center ... Dry air, and a modestly hostile environment continues to work on the system, if it hasn't already done so already ... Barring a rapid re-organization in Tropical Depression #2, it should be de-classified on the 11 pm advisory from NHC ...

Forecaster: SF

#63 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 4:11 pm

Agree with your summary SF! A portion of the latest form NHC indicates they have written it off. It is VERY RAGGED in the sat loops!!! Open low for sure IMO and has been for most of the day.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOSING ITS BATTLE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. IN
FACT...IT PROBABLY HAS ALREADY LOST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. WHAT PASSES FOR A SURFACE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS DISPLACED ABOUT 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM FOR A BIT
UNTIL WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT A CIRCULATION IS NOT GOING TO
REDEVELOP.

Another one for the books!! That's 2 out of 2!!! I hope this streak doesn't continue!!!! :o

#64 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 8:59 pm

Tropical update=10:00 PM EDT June 11 2003

Forecast #5

Tropical depression #2 is doomed as the band features that were evident earlier in the day are not present now.The convection is raggad and much less than 24 hours ago and maybe some little bursts poping up but that is it.It is moving west around 20 mph and now it will be an open tropical wave.This will be the final advisorie from the weathercentral storm2k forecasters unless regeneration takes place and we will watch it.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin all is quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected thru thursday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

Note:

This is not an official forecast but it is the weathercentral forecast center of storm2k forecasters.Please look for official information to the NHC.

#65 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 6:32 am

Tropical update=7:30 AM EDT June 12 2003

The remmanants of tropical depression #2 are now in the form of a strong tropical wave moving west 15-20 mph.It is around 600 miles east of the lesser antilles but regeneration to a depression is not expected as shear caused by a big upper low in the subtropical atlantic will not let it reorganize.However squally weather is expected for the lesser antilles by friday as this wave arrives.The storm2k forecasters are watching the progress of this strong wave in case it regenerates.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru friday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

mf_dolphin · #66 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 7:59 am

I would like to say a special thank you to the entire S2K Forecast Team! Great Job! :-)

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 8:08 am

Thank you Marshall

and this was only a little start of things to come later on.

Stormsfury · #68 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 10:00 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
Issued 11 am - Thursday, June 11th, 2003

Remnants of Tropical Depression #2 continues moving westward between 15 and 20 mph ... conditions are not favorable for re-generation at this time ...

Elsewhere a flare-up of convection in SW Caribbean has occurred earlier this morning ... but development is not expected at this time ...

Tropical Storm Formation is not expected thru Friday ...

SF

#69 Postby **msbee** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 11:37 am

hi
I'm a newbie to this site
great site!
great information!
can someone please tell me what GOM stands for?
thanks

Guest · #70 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:44 pm

Hi missbee....Welcome to storm2k...

........GOM Stands For Gulf Of Mexico.........

#71 Postby **msbee** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 3:54 pm

thanks King
I got it now! :oops:

Stormsfury · #72 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 4:05 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
Issued: 5:00 pm EDT, Thursday, June 12th, 2003

Cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression #2 continue to move west to WNW between 15 to 20 mph ... redevelopment is not anticipated ...

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday ...

SF

Rainband · #73 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 5:01 pm

msbee wrote:thanks King
I got it now!

Don't be embarassed thats how we all learn!!! :wink:

Welcome to Storm2K!!!!!

#74 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 9:24 pm

Tropical update=10:30 PM EDT June 12th 2003

A strong tropical wave the remanants of TD#2 located around 400 miles east of the windward islands is moving west 15-20 mph.Some squally weather will arrive at the lesser antilles friday but no tropical development is expected as upper winds are unfavorable for redevelopment.

Another tropical wave is located in the central caribbean sea but upper winds are not favorable for development.

For the entire atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru saturday.

Note:

Go to weathercentral of storm2k where you will find plenty of information about the weather in the US,around the world and about the tropics. The link is: http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... entral.htm

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#75 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 13, 2003 1:17 am

Tropical update=1:30 AM EDT June 13, 2003

A strong tropical wave which is the remanants of TD#2 is located around 350 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west at 15-20 mph. Although a low-level vorticity has been noted along the wave axis near 11N, out ahead of the convection, conditions remain highly unfavorable for redevelopment of TD #2 into a tropical cyclone. Some squally weather will arrive at the Lesser Antilles friday afternoon with the system but no tropical development is expected as upper winds are unfavorable for redevelopment.

Another tropical wave located in the Central Caribbean Sea moving Westward should increase shower activity over Hispaniola today in conjunction with an ULL to the N of PR, but upper winds are not favorable for development.

For the entire Atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru Saturday.

For more information go to Strom2k's Weather Central where you will find plenty of information about the weather in the US, around the world and in the tropics. The link is: http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... entral.htm

David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)-Storm2k forecaster

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 13, 2003 6:16 am

Tropical update=7:00 AM EDT June 13 2003

A tropical wave the remmanants of TD#2 is moving west 15-20 mph.Some squally weather will arrive in the windward islands later today but no redevelopment of it is expected as upper winds are unfavorable.

Another tropical wave located in the central caribbean sea is moving west 10-15 mph.Some showers and thunderstorms are with this wave but upper winds are not favorable for development.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru saturday.

Note:

Go and visit weathercentral of storm2k where you will find all kinds of weather related information about weather in the US,International weather and tropical weather.
http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... entral.htm

#77 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 13, 2003 4:45 pm

Tropical update=5:30 PM EDT June 13 2003

A tropical wave the remmanants of TD#2 is moving west 15-20 mph thru the windward islands.No redevelopment of it is expected as upper winds are unfavorable.

Another westward moving tropical wave is located in the central caribbean sea but upper winds are unfavorable for development.

For the atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru sunday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#78 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 13, 2003 9:15 pm

Tropical update=10:15 PM EDT June 13 2003

Upper winds are not favorable for development of 2 tropical waves one in the westcentral caribbean and the other entering the eastern caribbean.

Tropical storm formation is not expected for the atlantic basin thru sunday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#79 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jun 13, 2003 10:01 pm

Thanks for the short, concise but informative updates.

#80 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jun 14, 2003 12:53 am

Tropical update=1:00 AM EDT, June 14, 2003-This is the 5am update!

Upper winds continue to prohibit development of the 2 tropical waves now in the Caribbean.

Tropical storm formation is not expected for the Atlantic basin thru Sunday.

David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)-Storm2k forecaster

Daily tropical updates and advisories

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