IS NYC 2nd TO N.O. IN VUNERALBILTIY?

[Persepone]

The Category of the Hurricane matters less, I believe, in the Northeast, and less intense hurricanes can cause more extensive damage for a variety of reasons.

First the nature of the trees is such that they do not have the flexibility, etc. of palm trees, etc. so more of them snap off or uproot with less wind, I think. That's not very scientific, of course, but we saw very extensive damage in the few, relatively weak, storms to hit the Northeast. (I'm old enough to rember 1954+...) Storms move faster as they come north, so there is less warning and, of course, people don't quite realize what the danger is since it is not a familiar danger. And except for the truly coastal communities in places like Long Island, Cape Cod, parts of the shore, the concept of "boarding up" just is not there. In any case, the hardware stores don't have the supplies even if you wanted to--inquiries about things like plylox clips, hurricane shutters, etc. get a blank stare and a "what you would want that for?" Of courses even newer houses are not built specifically to withstand hurricanes so the roof anchoring, etc. is quite different, apparently. And there is great resistance to cutting down trees--or even pruning them--and even if you go to cut down a dead tree, you have neighbors running over to complain. You have to point out to them that it is dead, totally rotten, etc. and they poke at it, etc. and then agree that, yes, it really is dead... (We haven't tried cutting down anything that is a "good" tree but I can't imagine how much of a fit they would pitch if we did.) And, of course, there are the "old timers" who lived through--or their grandparents "lived through" past storms--so they figure if the house held in 1938 or whenever, no particular preparations are in order. I can sort of understand that--my daughter's house was built in 1815--but it does have "scars" from the hurricane of 1938--and it is in interior New Hampshire! (It also has pretty heavy duty storm shutters--both exterior ones and interior ones! Worst, of course, there are a lot more people here than even 30 years ago--so there is a lot more potential...

I also think "elevation" has something to do with the damage--when the hurricane goes inland, you would think it would lose its ferocity (and of course it does over time) but the damage can be quite amazing fairly far from the shore.
And, Cape Cod, at least has no practical plan for a Hurricane emergency! Yes, they have published a plan, but on the face of it it is impractical and unworkable. There are very few shelters and there is no way they could shelter the people who would likely to be trapped here.

Getting on and off Cape Cod when there is no emergency can take several hours in summer with the tourists. I've seen 3 hours to go 5 miles... The bridges were built in the 1930s--and have traffic islands (roundabouts with many roads feeding in) at the bridges. Now they are removing one of those--but for the next couple of years we trade construction for the roundabout. So if "normal" traffic has that type of delay, what would an evacuation produce? The bridges are 2 lanes wide--they can't widen the bridges in 48 hours... Besides, they close the bridges when it gets too windy. People will be trapped on Cape Cod.

Some schools are to serve as shelters, but they are small schools as they serve the year round population--not the amazing influx of summer tourists. Allegedly there is a shelter about 1 mile from my house on the Air Force Base--but no way to access it since it is tightly sealed off (and no known road through the woods) and the only access road I know of to actually get in to the base (assuming they would let you in) is to go around by the bridge to get off Cape--so that is probably impractical. To the best of my knowledge, there is no way to notify people of the danger &/or what to do that is practical. And the maps of the Cape are inaccurate, street signs are often missing entirely or misleading, and in many cases "you can't get there from here." On a map our cross-street goes through! It doesn't. Even a Sherman tank would have trouble. If you are in a car--even a Hummer--you would not make it. The problem is that if you go down that road trying to get to Rt. 130, (the road that you would use to evacuate) you can't turn around and you have to back up for 1/2 mile or so...

I can just see thousands and thousands of tourists trying to find shelters, find highways, find safe places--it would be a total disaster--in the true sense of the word.

Other communities--notably some in CT--have good disaster plans, clear signage, and multiple evacuation routes so as not to send all the traffic out on just a few roads. But that does assume there are multiple roads that lead to safety.

I do not know where it is, but in the past I did see some of those maps that showed what a storm surge would do to Buzzard's Bay, etc. and there would be significant loss of life, I believe because if you are in areas vulnerable to storm surge or other flooding, the danger is not often apparent. This is also true on Cape Cod. You may think you are not "near" the shore when you really are. And you may be driving on some road that you think is not susceptible to flooding and then you are likely to get trapped.

[Swimdude]

I think half the reason NYC is vulnerable to a hurricane is the small chance that a storm actually makes landfall there. The water temperatures are usually cooler up there... And it's not like NYC has one ever year... Or every five years.

[weathermom]

NYC could never evacuate well. Many city people don't even own their own vehicles. Mass transportation? Ok, but to where? Just take them to the end of the line and kick them off??? Not practical. The city's roadways, bridges and tunnels can't handle rush hour well, never mind evacuation. (Remember 9/11 and people walking across the bridges.)Getting them out of the city is only the first step. Then you have crossed the river into NJ, into the most populated county of the most populated state,( or Rockland county, just as bad) and everyone there would also have been told to evacuate. (most likely, if the city were being evacuated)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree on the elevation issue. Another factor to take into consideration is that as these storm transition into VERY strong Extratropical systems (by extratropical standards ), is that winds will tend to increase in relation to elevation, and will (in some cases) be far stronger (both sustained and gusts) than their surface counterparts.


I think that the most worrying factor of extratropical transition, or the hybridstorm stage (subtropical), is that it is little understood, and admittedly hard for computer models to accurately predict (both in terms of track, and intensity).


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Radar]

I found this URL just searching around the internet on storm surge. Although for some it will be pretty elementary, take note of the simulated storm surge links to several cities about half way down the page... I found it very surreal the simulated storm surges for N.O., NYC and the other cities.. Check it out it is worth it.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/hurricane_aware/english/storm_surge.shtml

[dhweather]

NYC could never evacuate well. Many city people don't even own their own vehicles. Mass transportation? Ok, but to where? Just take them to the end of the line and kick them off??? Not practical. The city's roadways, bridges and tunnels can't handle rush hour well, never mind evacuation. (Remember 9/11 and people walking across the bridges.)Getting them out of the city is only the first step. Then you have crossed the river into NJ, into the most populated county of the most populated state,( or Rockland county, just as bad) and everyone there would also have been told to evacuate. (most likely, if the city were being evacuated)

That's the biggest concern to NO officials - there's well over 100,000 with no
personal transportation - they use mass transit exclusively.

[Stephanie]

The Weather Channel did a show a year or two back about the 5 Most Vulnerable Cities in The US, and New York City made the list.

I was surprised that Washington DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia didn't make the list.

Hurricane Isabel was supposed to chug right up the Chesapeake Bay. Eventhough it veered to the left and went over Charlottesville, VA, Annapolis still had a record storm surge of 7.5 feet.

Given the cone shape of the Chesapeake Bay, if a hurricane ever was to go up the Bay, the flooding would be terrible, possibly right up to Philadelphia.

As someone else has mentioned, the contour of the coastline shelters cities like Washington, DC and Philadelphia while the Outer Banks and NY/Long Island/New England jut out. The Outer Banks tend to get raked as the storm runs up the coast, skirts the Delmarva and NJ coastlines and if they don't turn out to see by NJ, bang right into Long Island/New England.

I do think that the Mid Atlantic/New England areas do have our own form of "mini" hurricanes with the Nor'Easters. Those things are bad enough and we've seen how dangerous and destructive they can be.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed they do not call Nor'Easters "Winter's Hurricanes" for nothing Just this past March one spawned an ice storm that knocked out the power for over 15 hours. Needless to see that the cold air mass on the back side of the storm made it a chilly time toward the end of said period with no heat (we have electric heating at my house, and at the WAGM studio).


Getting back to hurricanes in this part of the World for a minute. In Hurricane Edna of 1954 for example, a movie theater actually burnt down (about 20 miles south of my town) due to falling power lines, and the fact that the fire trucks couldn't reach the area due to fallen trees blocking the road. The storm surge also totally destroyed several buildings along the coasts of New Brunswick and SW Nova Scotia, and turned my house into Island front property. Problem is my house is located 50 miles inland, and is in an area that is not prone to flooding in the least. There was so much rain however, that it totally submerged much of the area around my home. And like someone else said about their town in the region that was no where near the amount of property and people in this area as their was even 15 years ago (in my area's case) as there is now, little own 50 years ago. Last time we have a hurricane strength system was Gerda in 1969 (we had Edna in 1954, Ginny in 1963, Gerda in 1969, all did alot of damage, then nothing 'til now), 36 years ago! People are simply ill prepared for the next big blow. Most of them are to young to remember the last one (some where not even born until much later), and as such have no idea about this area's hurricane past.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Stephanie]

People are simply ill prepared for the next big blow. Most of them are to young to remember the last one (some where not even born until much later), and as such have no idea about this area's hurricane past

There's going to be some BIG problems when the next one occurs. We are way over due. I'm 50 miles from the coast as well, but we had last summer some wicked thunderstorms that dumped over 14 inches of rain in the Burlington County area and washed away some dams. The amount of rain alone from a strong hurricane could be devasting in this area alone.

[fjf31970]

MY page on the 1938 hurricane.ON HANDS ACCOUNTS AND PHOTOS

http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreast ... ICANE.html

[skysummit]

FOX8, New Orleans, had their annual hurricane show tonight. They read a little from some report (I wish I remembered what it was). Whomever wrote the report said New Orleans is, by far, the most vulernable city in the nation, and possibly the entire world, when it comes to potential destruction caused by a Category 5 hurricane. I agree with the nation comment, but I do believe there could be somewhere else in the world that may have it a little worse.