Are they hitting the good stuff early this year? I looked at the satellite images, and saw... giant talking chipmunks.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
I DON'T KNOW ABOUT SIMON AND THEODORE...BUT ALVIN IS NO LONGER A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND...THEREFORE...
THIS IS LAST ADVISORY ON ALVIN. A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE WINDS HAS
LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY DEEP CONVECTION...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 20 KT. THE REMNANT LOW MAY
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT IS STEERED
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
Morale boosting NHC Discussions
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
I liked the "squashed spider" one from Barbara...
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35
KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 28 TO 42 KT DURING THE PAST 12
HR. WHILE THE EVIDENCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...IT IS NOT YET UNAMBIGUOUS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN
UPGRADE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE
LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN. THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE
GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO
LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA. THE GFS FORECASTS A
NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION.
THE GULF TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HR AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT
MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF IS STRONG
ENOUGH...THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW COULD PULL THE CYCLONE INTO
EASTERN MEXICO OR CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BOTH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN 48-60
HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE...
CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 96 HR. TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ARE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
COULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE SYSTEM WILL GET.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Said sfc low is 92L.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35
KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 28 TO 42 KT DURING THE PAST 12
HR. WHILE THE EVIDENCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...IT IS NOT YET UNAMBIGUOUS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN
UPGRADE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE
LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN. THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE
GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO
LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA. THE GFS FORECASTS A
NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION.
THE GULF TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HR AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT
MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF IS STRONG
ENOUGH...THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW COULD PULL THE CYCLONE INTO
EASTERN MEXICO OR CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BOTH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN 48-60
HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE...
CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 96 HR. TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ARE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
COULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE SYSTEM WILL GET.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Said sfc low is 92L.
0 likes
Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
Little bit of personality creeping into the Bertha discussions. You could tell this one was an Avila from the first sentence:
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008
AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS
OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION.
And from tonight's disco:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008
BERTHA HAS SEEMINGLY DROPPED ANCHOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA...AND IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 12 HOURS SINCE THE CENTER HAS
MOVED ENOUGH TO ASSIGN A MEANINGFUL FORWARD MOTION.
Now we just need to get anchors away and send Bertha out to sea.
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008
AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS
OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION.
And from tonight's disco:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008
BERTHA HAS SEEMINGLY DROPPED ANCHOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA...AND IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 12 HOURS SINCE THE CENTER HAS
MOVED ENOUGH TO ASSIGN A MEANINGFUL FORWARD MOTION.
Now we just need to get anchors away and send Bertha out to sea.
0 likes
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008
...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL COULD SHRINK RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION...I AM NOT CONSIDERING IT IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA WHEN OR IF THIS CYCLE WILL OCCUR.
I just thought this was funny to read. It's not often you see this in a forecast from the NHC.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008
...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL COULD SHRINK RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION...I AM NOT CONSIDERING IT IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA WHEN OR IF THIS CYCLE WILL OCCUR.
I just thought this was funny to read. It's not often you see this in a forecast from the NHC.
0 likes
-
Ad Novoxium
- Category 1
- Posts: 348
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2008 2:12 am
Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
Kind of hard to point out other good quotes. All the best ones were taken. These are just some of the strange ones I found:
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002
THE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL
ESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER
AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
DOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR
WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE
QUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR
THE MODEL NEXT RUN.
IF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
=====================================================
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE EDGE OF A SOLID CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR TWO
CYCLES NOW...AND WITH A CLEARER KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE.
SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AS WELL AS
CONFIRMATION FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
THEREFORE...JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER ABOUT 36-48
HOURS...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A
WESTWARD TURN WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS.
JULIETTE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH
SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIETTE OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS
THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS WITHIN THE PAST
WEEK. ONCE THESE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 THEN DISSIPATE BY
DAY 5. IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE
COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
(Avila)
================================
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
=======================
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002
THE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL
ESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER
AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
DOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR
WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE
QUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR
THE MODEL NEXT RUN.
IF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
=====================================================
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE EDGE OF A SOLID CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR TWO
CYCLES NOW...AND WITH A CLEARER KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE.
SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AS WELL AS
CONFIRMATION FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
THEREFORE...JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER ABOUT 36-48
HOURS...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A
WESTWARD TURN WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS.
JULIETTE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH
SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIETTE OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS
THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS WITHIN THE PAST
WEEK. ONCE THESE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 THEN DISSIPATE BY
DAY 5. IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE
COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
(Avila)
================================
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
=======================
0 likes
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
...
BERTHA FOOLED ME ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA BEGAN A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT EARLIER TODAY BUT...IN FACT...IT WAS MOVING IN
CIRCLES AND IT COULD BE DOING ONE OF THESE LOOPS AGAIN.
Even more from Bertha.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
...
BERTHA FOOLED ME ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA BEGAN A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT EARLIER TODAY BUT...IN FACT...IT WAS MOVING IN
CIRCLES AND IT COULD BE DOING ONE OF THESE LOOPS AGAIN.
Even more from Bertha.
0 likes
Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
000
WTNT42 KNHC 132027
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT APPEARS THAT
BERTHA COULD BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT42 KNHC 132027
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT APPEARS THAT
BERTHA COULD BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
601
WTNT42 KNHC 140258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA IS TAPPING LIGHTLY ON THE ACCELERATOR
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT42 KNHC 140258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA IS TAPPING LIGHTLY ON THE ACCELERATOR
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE PRESSURE CONTINUED A SLOW
BUT STEADY FALL...TO 1001 MB AT 05Z. THE PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SOLID
45 KT AS THE SURFACE ESTIMATE.
THE RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS TURNED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 030/7. THE
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS COMPLICATED...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
A MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
IS ABOUT TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE FRANKLIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH IT...AND BY 36-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER
AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY IS SHOWING A RESTRICTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THE FUTURE TRACK OF
FRANKLIN IS VERY MUCH TIED TO HOW IT RESPONDS TO THIS IMPENDING
SHEAR...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS
DECOUPLES THE CYCLONE'S LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND RACES A
WEAK SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS
AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY CONNECTED
SYSTEM THAT ALSO MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY.
THE GFDL HAS A RATHER SURPRISING SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BOTH
RELATIVELY FAST WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION AND YET ALSO FORECASTS
FRANKLIN TO ATTAIN AND THEN MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR ALMOST
72 HOURS.
SO WHAT TO DO WITH THIS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES? SMALL SYSTEMS ARE
FREQUENTLY NOT THAT RESISTENT TO SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
THEREFORE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS OR UKMET GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO FAST...SO PERHAPS NONE OF THE
INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PARTICULAR
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A PRIMARILY A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE SHALLOW BAM...THE GUNA
CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS ONLY COINCIDENTALLY
CLOSE TO THE GFDL. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT
SOUTHWARD...AND DOES SHOW A CLOSE APPROACH TO BERMUDA IN 72 HOURS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT SOME OF THE LARGEST TRACK ERRORS
OCCUR IN HIGH-SHEAR SCENARIOS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS WELL EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTED THAT
THE CYCLONE WAS GETTING READY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE GOOD. HOWEVER...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG RUN APPEARS LIMITED...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS SEEMINGLY IN THE
CYCLONE'S FUTURE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 29.1N 75.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 74.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 30.8N 73.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 31.4N 71.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.8N 69.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 65.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 60.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 39.0N 56.0W 40 KT
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angelwing
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- Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
- Location: Kulpsville, PA
Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
000
WTNT42 KNHC 142044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BERTHA FOUND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...WINDS THAT WERE WERE CONFIRMED BY A CO-LOCATED
DROPSONDE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE
IN DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF BERTHA FINALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM WHERE IT HAD BEEN PARKED. THIS STRENTHENING REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...AS THIS PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE HAS YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE
EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT BERTHA
WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECT THE STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOTION OF THE
OVERALL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THAT OF THE SMALL SWIRL THAT IS VISIBLE
ROTATING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE SHORT TERM TRACK
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED...WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...BERTHA'S PATH WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 39N/43W BUT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE IS SLOWER
THAN IT HAD BEEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE BERTHA SOUTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE
WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS ACCELERATION ON DAYS
4-5 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT EVEN SO IS FASTER THAN JUST
ABOUT EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HWRF AND GFDL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 33.0N 64.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 62.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 61.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 35.2N 60.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 54.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT42 KNHC 142044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BERTHA FOUND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...WINDS THAT WERE WERE CONFIRMED BY A CO-LOCATED
DROPSONDE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE
IN DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF BERTHA FINALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM WHERE IT HAD BEEN PARKED. THIS STRENTHENING REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...AS THIS PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE HAS YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE
EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT BERTHA
WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECT THE STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOTION OF THE
OVERALL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THAT OF THE SMALL SWIRL THAT IS VISIBLE
ROTATING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE SHORT TERM TRACK
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED...WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...BERTHA'S PATH WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 39N/43W BUT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE IS SLOWER
THAN IT HAD BEEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE BERTHA SOUTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE
WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS ACCELERATION ON DAYS
4-5 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT EVEN SO IS FASTER THAN JUST
ABOUT EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HWRF AND GFDL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 33.0N 64.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 62.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 61.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 35.2N 60.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 54.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
000
WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 65
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER
BERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS
TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 65
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER
BERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS
TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
Franklin is sounding a little PC here:
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT
CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED... WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT
CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED... WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
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AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
yzerfan wrote:Franklin is sounding a little PC here:
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT
CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED... WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
Well, you probably don't want to offend a tropical storm.
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
Is it? Isn't it? We aren't sure why, but it is...
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008
WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE ONE ASPECT WHICH
WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE
NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER
TROPOPAUSE. FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008
WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE ONE ASPECT WHICH
WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE
NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER
TROPOPAUSE. FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.
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NHC Discussion wrote:ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
...
BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND IT HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...THE STEERING AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION. IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE DEPRESSION AS THE ONLY CYCLONE AND MOVE
IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST COULD BE DEVELOPING AS SUGGESTED BY THE
GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS ALL MODELS BUT THE GFS AND
KEEPS THE DEPRESSION ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT I COULD BE SORRY LATER ON THAT I DID NOT
FOLLOW THE RELIABLE GFS.
NHC Discussion wrote:ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
...
AS EXPRESSED THIS MORNING...BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE
COMPLICATED AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE UK AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO MEXICO EVENTUALLY. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER CYCLONE TO
THE EAST AND THE DEPRESSION BECOMES ABSORBED BY IT. EVEN THE GFDL
AND HWRF ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE GFDL KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING
WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNS IT NORTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. I AM
STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE SINCE I HAVE TO CHOOSE ONE OF
THESE RELIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
WE SHALL SEE.
Hmm...
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NHC Discussion wrote:ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
MARIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS
STARTING TO RESEMBLE A TYPICAL WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
OVER COOLER WATERS. A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER RATHER COOL
SSTS INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MARIE WILL BECOME UNGLUED FASTER
THAN SHOWN BELOW...WHICH WOULD BE THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
SHIPS/LGEM.
That's a new one!
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cycloneye
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
From Hurricane Norbert Discussion at 8 PM PDT:
SHIPS BEGINS TO WEAKEN NORBERT BY 72 HOURS
DUE TO THE IDIOSYNCRASIES OF THE GFS AND ITS OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OTHER DISTURBANCE. DISREGARDING THAT
CONTRIBUTION IN THE SHIPS MODEL...
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
cycloneye wrote:SHIPS BEGINS TO WEAKEN NORBERT BY 72 HOURS
DUE TO THE IDIOSYNCRASIES OF THE GFS AND ITS OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OTHER DISTURBANCE. DISREGARDING THAT
CONTRIBUTION IN THE SHIPS MODEL...
I will have to look that one up!
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Re: Morale boosting NHC Discussions
It's so wee it's cute!
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE... OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE... OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
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