There seems to be the first signs of a spin

#61 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 9:19 am

Stop the madness and let's back to tracking storms.

cyclonaut · #62 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 9:45 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.

Fine... you can pay for a recon plane to go out there and find nothing.

What is your problem I never said a recon plane was needed?

How else are you going to find a surface circulation out there??? Buoys don't support it...

I give up I'm lossing my mind. I quite I'm outta here!!!

Ypu probably have lost your mind!

You have been up all night tracking this blob. :eek:

Get some sleep man!

#63 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:30 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Derek what the heck? I'm just showing buoys in other things trying to see if there is anything. More then I can see for many a member. In two this is a weather board so yes thats what we do is watch to see for development.

In plus it is not my falt people build there house on the coast. So why should I care? I say get use to them or move away from the coast.

Matt, you could tone that down a bit. You need to consider several things
before making such broad statements in an accusatory manner.

People have lived in coastal regions for thousands of years. Due to
family, career, and other socioeconomic reasons, people will continue to
live along the coastal regions.

Do you own your own home? Are you employed? It's easy to sit back
and say "move away from the coast", however, when it directly impacts
you, that changes your perspective. Finding a job and moving your family is extremely taxing.

People still live all throughout Tornado Alley - should they move as well?
Noreasters ravage the New England states, should all of them move as well?

As you mentioned, nobody controls the weather, all we can do is watch.
We can mitigate the risks associated with severe weather events, but
there is no "safe place" to live.

#64 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:48 am

Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.

Fine... you can pay for a recon plane to go out there and find nothing.

That made me laugh out loud.

#65 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:50 am

I guess there is an element of risk no matter where you live, from earthquakes, to floods, to hurricanes, severe thunder storms and lightning, tornadoes and blizzards... I don't think one can be risk free but one can certainly minimize risk by understanding what they are and taking necessary actions to reduce that risk...

I have lived on the beach in MS for a long time, I couldn't imagine living anywhere else, nor would I want to.... hurricanes or not

You build the best house you can afford, upgrade it as you can, insure it, protect it as best you can, don't take unnecessary risks, understand your risk, and live with it...

All the hype in the world will still not create a tropical cyclone... nature does what it needs to do, and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the ride...... or get out of its way... with hurricanes its simple because at least we do have a choice of getting out of the way....

except some of us choose not to ....

Stratusxpeye · #66 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:51 am

OMG. I think we all need to just calm down. Hes just excited about tracking this blob he sees. He doesnt control a thing with the weather, so no matte rhow many hours he stares at it it wouldnt change a thing wether he watched it or not. And theres alot of ppl watching this blob down there. I fits bret so be it. Nothing anyone can do about it except mother nature

So let her do her work whatever that may be and us as humans have to deal with it we will always prevail.

#67 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:53 am

Nevertheless....this blob is looking better and better frame by frame!

Guest · #68 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:01 am

skysummit wrote:Nevertheless....this blob is looking better and better frame by frame!

Thats a fact!

whoops :cry:

thats what I'm suppost to show right?

can't get excited anymore due to the extreme emotional strain on coastal dwellers. :lol:

#69 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:05 am

Watch the WV loop. The large ULL is plowing SW over Cuba - that will
result in a SW to NE flow over the blob, and it will move off to the
northeast. In fact, you can see it doing so in the WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#70 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:29 am

Looks like some kind of weak mid level circulation is there. Shear however seem to be on the increase. Still a couple of days away from doing anything IMO.....MGC

#71 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:29 am

dhweather wrote:Watch the WV loop. The large ULL is plowing SW over Cuba - that will
result in a SW to NE flow over the blob, and it will move off to the
northeast. In fact, you can see it doing so in the WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Then why is the NHC saying it will move NW?

x-y-no · #72 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:56 am

Stormcenter wrote:
dhweather wrote:Watch the WV loop. The large ULL is plowing SW over Cuba - that will
result in a SW to NE flow over the blob, and it will move off to the
northeast. In fact, you can see it doing so in the WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Then why is the NHC saying it will move NW?

The lower-level steering will move it NW. But given the way the upper-level flow is plunging SW in front of it, that puts it in a very hostile environment soon.

We'll see what happens in a day or two, but right now things aren't looking favorable at all.

Jan

corpusbreeze · #73 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:58 am

skysummit wrote:Nevertheless....this blob is looking better and better frame by frame!

It sure is.

HurryKane · #74 Postby **HurryKane** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:59 am

Frank P wrote:I guess there is an element of risk no matter where you live, from earthquakes, to floods, to hurricanes, severe thunder storms and lightning, tornadoes and blizzards... I don't think one can be risk free but one can certainly minimize risk by understanding what they are and taking necessary actions to reduce that risk...

I have lived on the beach in MS for a long time, I couldn't imagine living anywhere else, nor would I want to.... hurricanes or not

You build the best house you can afford, upgrade it as you can, insure it, protect it as best you can, don't take unnecessary risks, understand your risk, and live with it...

All the hype in the world will still not create a tropical cyclone... nature does what it needs to do, and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the ride...... or get out of its way... with hurricanes its simple because at least we do have a choice of getting out of the way....

except some of us choose not to ....

Said it before and will say it again: You picks yer plot and you takes yer chances. It's a risk some are willing to take.

cyclonaut · #75 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:18 pm

The blob is being steered @ the lower levels.North of it is the ULL,thats may shear it to death but it wont move it NE being its in the upper levels.

Swimdude · #76 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:18 pm

Ahhh the excitement is in the air! It's strange to see the trend here... We get so excited over a blob. Yet when there are 2-3 hurricanes in the Atlantic, there's about the same level of sleep-deprived people like us tracking the storms. Just goes to show you... The anticipation is better than the climax itself...

Ahem, weather-wise, of course.

CFL · #77 Postby **CFL** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:20 pm

I just thought I'd comment on the subject of "cheering storms on". I live in the Ivan affected area, and I am in no way offended or upset when people get excited about tropical systems. No one's cheering or booing steered Ivan either toward or away from me. If a person gets easily upset by someone else's excitement, they just don't belong on a weather forum with storm enthusiasts. Just my 2 cents. . .

Also, I think everyone experiences a wide range of emotions when a powerful storm is headed their way: excitement, dread, nervousness, etc. It's just all part of the process.

#78 Postby **patsmsg** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:45 pm

Matt, I appreciate your posts. I, for one, participate in these forums in order to learn,and from that perspective, the earlier I start observing a developing weather situation, the better. Thanks for pointing this one out. So far, I don't see your analysis as half-bad.

rtd2 · #79 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:05 pm

I think we ALL have a little -removed- in us! I know I have... Its part of loving tropical weather! NO ONE who loves tropical weather wants to see someone else get all the action! With that said I dont ever wish a Major storm on anyone...Not that it would matter! I LOVE TO see cat 4's and the rare cat 5's but I like them out at sea! Problem is sometimes they HAVE to hit land...I'm not sure what the intent of the orginal thread stater was but I doubt it was -removed- death and destruction....Something we try to prevent or minimize! but with mother nature is expected!

jax · #80 Postby **jax** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:46 pm

Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.

Fine... you can pay for a recon plane to go out there and find nothing.[/quote

looks like Matt might save some money on this one....

There seems to be the first signs of a spin

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