What categorie cane would you ride out?

[wxman57]

I appreciate your advice and thoughts on the topic. I have a question. With Hillsborough County having such a large population, if your not asked to evacuate, should you evacuate. It just seems it would multiply the problems on the road for those having to evacuate, if the ones also left that didn't. And just like last year, when the storm seemed like a direct hit on Tampa, and the population went to Orlando and got hit harder than if they would have stayed home. Unless you go out of state, there is no certainty that you will be able to avoid the storm. And lets not even mention the people who don't have the money for gas and lodging which brings up the terrible situation with our shelters not being safe.

In the Florida Peninsula, you evacuate to escape the storm surge, not to get out of the way of the winds. As we saw with Charley last year, you can't second guess where a storm will go. Just a slight turn before landfall can make a BIG difference in the hurricane's effects. So you drive to somewhere that is over 25-30 ft elevation and ride it out in something other than a mobile home.

That said, Tampa Bay would be a death trap. The very shallow coastal waters combined with the amplifying effect of a storm surge moving into the Bay could, in effect, cause the storm surge to be about double what it would be otherwise. So a Cat 3 with a 12-15 foot storm surge on the outer coast could produce a surge nearly double that in northern parts of the Bay. Unless your home is higher than that, you need to get out. Now this assumes the hurricane is coming from the south to the west. Hurricanes that hit the eastern Peninsula don't produce a surge as they exit the western Peninsula.

[Ixolib]

This poll surfaced last year, and I see the same basic flaws in most of your thinking. The question "what category would your ride out" makes a VERY BIG assumption. It assumes that you are able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane several days out (when you'll have to make the decision to evacuate). But as we saw with Charley last year, hurricanes can strengthen several categories in just 6-12 hours. Fortunately, Charley's area of Cat 4 winds was only a few miles across.

Let's say you're in New Orleans and a Category 1 hurricane enters the Gulf by the Yucatan. It's moving NW at 15 mph and you have about 48 hours from landfall, which is projected to be near Lake Charles to Lafayette. It takes a good 36-48 hours to evacuate New Orleans, so what do you do? You say you'll ride out a Category 1 in New Orleans, so if it turns more to the north and hits New Oreans, you think you'll be fine. The next day, the hurricane strengthens unexpectedly, as did Charley, to a strong Category 3 with 125 mph wind. Now you have 24 hours until the outer bands hit New Orleans. Evacuation orders are given, but it's too late to get out. If you get on the road 24 hrs. before landfall you'll still be there when the storm hits. You'll likely be killed. That Cat 1 is now a strengthening Cat 3 and New Orleans is getting hit by the "big one".

So this poll question is inherently flawed in assuming that intensity forecasts are perfect. They're not. So you'd better treat every single tropical cyclone as if it has the potential to rapidly intensify prior to landfall (unless there is certainty about high wind shear affecting the storm before landfall). That may mean evacuating a death trap like New Orleans for a tropical storm 2 days out. Either that, or you'd better be the first one on the road when the TS becomes a strengthening hurricane 24 hours out.

Living in Biloxi, at 30 feet above MSL, I stand by my original statement. But, if I lived ANYWHERE where surge was going to be a problem - like N.O. or anywhere else where water will be an issue - I would have a well thought-out and even rehearsed plan of action to include the possibility of leaving whenever any tropical system is within 48 hours of my residence – regardless of it's forecasted direction or intensity...

[MGC]

That is the problem with New Orleans. Who knows if a system will pull a Charley. Since it would take 3 days to evacuate NO the concept of evacuation should be reevaluated. Personally, haveing grown up in NO, I would favor a improved levee system. Face it, the levees in NO will have to be raised again. As NO slowly sinks into the GOM, coastal errosion eats away what little land is between NO and the GOM plus the rising of sea level leave NO no other choise. It is raise the levees or abandon the city.....MGC

[Ixolib]

That is the problem with New Orleans. Who knows if a system will pull a Charley. Since it would take 3 days to evacuate NO the concept of evacuation should be reevaluated. Personally, haveing grown up in NO, I would favor a improved levee system. Face it, the levees in NO will have to be raised again. As NO slowly sinks into the GOM, coastal errosion eats away what little land is between NO and the GOM plus the rising of sea level leave NO no other choise. It is raise the levees or abandon the city.....MGC

There was once a thread here with a good link that compared the LA coastline since Betsy in 1965 with the coastline today. As I recall, all I could say was WOW!! Something like the Gulf is now ~45 miles closer to N.O. Not intending to derail this thread, but here are some pretty significant statistics...

Louisiana's Coastal Zone
Over 40% of our nations wetlands are found in Louisiana.
Approximately 80% of the nation’s wetlands losses occur in Louisiana.
70% of the state’s population lives in the coastal zone, which is located south of an east – west line marked by Interstate 10.
Louisiana’s 4.2 million acres of coastal wetlands are a national resource based on their sheer magnitude and productivity.
Coastal wetlands loss in Louisiana approximates 25 square miles annually.
Annually, about $50 million of federal and state funds are invested in projects to help reduce coastal land loss.
Approximately 80% of Louisiana’s wetlands are privately owned.
The nation’s largest coastal riverine wetlands resource is the Atchafalaya Basin west of New Orleans

[feederband]

I will stay for cat 2 but no stonger. I live in a manufactured home. I stayed with Jeanne and it came though here as a stong cat 2. I stayed because I got looted in frances....The only thing I worry about is I did not think that the winds were going to be that strong and last for as long as it did. Once jeanne started to roll in, it did not take long for it to take out ALL of my exit routes out so even if I wanted to leave I would not of been able too.

[GalvestonDuck]

None for me because I'm on a barrier island. Shut up, David!!!

[gtalum]

I would stay even for a 5. I am in a well-constructed concrete block home with a well-attached hip roof built post-Andrew. I am at about 35 feet elevation and about 6 miles from the Gulf. I'd rather be here and able to deal with the aftermath quickly, rather than trying to fight my way back in afterward. Also, I-75 becomes virtually impassable in an evacuation, and there's really nowhere to go that's safer except all the way to Atlanta.

[feederband]

I would stay even for a 5. I am in a well-constructed concrete block home with a well-attached hip roof built post-Andrew. I am at about 35 feet elevation and about 6 miles from the Gulf. I'd rather be here and able to deal with the aftermath quickly, rather than trying to fight my way back in afterward. Also, I-75 becomes virtually impassable in an evacuation, and there's really nowhere to go that's safer except all the way to Atlanta.

I think a 5 would be to stressfull. I road out Jeanne and many times I was saying why am I here. But on the one point you made about dealing with the aftermath. I know by us staying here we probably save the house from more damage. We were able to shore up things as they happened .We even cut one tree down that was starting to fall on the house and no looters.

[gtalum]

Oh no doubt it would be stressful. I wa suneasy even during the tropical storm winds we got from Frances and Jeanne. However, I know myself, and I know I'd rather be really scared for hours during a storm than angry for days trying to get out and worried sick for days trying to get back.

I have decided that this season, whatever comes, I won't get worried about it, at least until the storm's actually here. Last season I got freaked out when Ivan was still a cat 5 and briefly projected to come ashore right in Sarasota. That won't happen again this year. I'm much better prepared for it from now on. Last year was a wake-up call as I'd always been lax about the hurricane kit and shutters for the windows.

[gtalum]

You also have to remember what was said about unpredictability of the path and rapid intensification. Look at Charley for instance. Those folks in Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda thought that the hurricane was going to Tampa and that it as a weak 3 anyway. Then all of of a sudden it bombed into a strong 4 and turned northeast. Unless I plan to evacuate every time a 'cane enters the Gulf, I may as well just be prepared to ride out a 5.

[feederband]

I just think if you are going to ride out a 5 might be pointless if you look at what Andrew did it basicaaly left nothing. so thus no aftermath to worry about. And everyone that rode out that storm says they will never do that again. I think a 3,4 or 5 I'm heading out.

[gtalum]

But what happens if a 2 rolls in, or a 4 or 5 is forecast to hit far away but changes directions at the last minute?

And even in Andrew, concrete block homes were left standing. My house was built post-Andrew with good hurricane strapping. I'll take my chances, at least the first time!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would ride anything out. I love the feel of the wind in rain.

[feederband]

I would ride anything out. I love the feel of the wind in rain.

You must also love the feel of 2by4's with nails and tree limbs for this will be with your wind and rain ....lol

[Derek Ortt]

Homes were left standing in Andrew if they wer enot in one of those miniswirls.

Nothing withstood those miniswirls. The building codes were fine for Andrew, Coral Gables and South Miami held up quite well, despite receiving upper cat 3 to minimum cat 4 conditions. It was only in the cat 5 area did we see the total devastation.

In short, for a cat 5, or even an upper cat 4 like Charley, precautions due to wind also need to be taken into consideration. Charley totally destroyed many re-enforced concrete homes and businesses where the 150 m.p.h. winds hit in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte

[mikey mike]

Everyone that says they would ride out a cat 5 are crazy.I rode out Camille in long beach ms and it was very frightening.Don't know how we made it!! 4 trees fell on the house we were in and you could hear the tornados above the howl of the hurricane itself.When we got up and looked outside the next morning,homes were destroyed,cars were flipped over (even in carports).It looked like we had been bombed!We were about a mile and a half inland.Never again.

[vbhoutex]

None for me because I'm on a barrier island. Shut up, David!!!

HEHEHEHEHE!!!!!!! You can always come up here and ride it out with us, EVEN IF YOU DO LIVE ON A BARRIER ISLAND!!!!