Jeanne and the East Coast

Josephine96 · #61 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:37 pm

It's always a wait and see attitude lol

#62 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:41 pm

LOL - yup....2004 Hurricane Season - the wait and see-son LOL

Josephine96 · #63 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:42 pm

LMAO.. I like that.. wait and see-son lol

HurricaneGirl · #64 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:08 pm

My friend just called me and said Jeanne is a Category 1 now.

#65 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:09 pm

Josephine96 · #66 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:10 pm

Well .. I may have an interesting update tomorrow then :eek:

ColdFront77 · #67 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:11 pm

rbaker wrote:how many times do we have to not pay attn to these 5 day forecast, when they change every 6hrs? Ive learned this year to quit paying attn to these forecast way far out, they are unrealiable to say the least. Just look at Ivan.

The three day forecast can and does change every 6 hours. I think knowing the previous forecast and model runs as time goes by still serves a purpose no matter where landfall ultimately is.

Josephine96 · #68 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:14 pm

Thank you Tom.. I knew the 5 day ones changed.. but not the 3 day..

yoda · #69 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:20 pm

HurricaneGirl wrote:My friend just called me and said Jeanne is a Category 1 now.

I would expect so... 75-80 mph on 5 PM adv.

Guest · #70 Postby **Guest** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:25 pm

at this point i think karl will be a fish.. (the wave just off Africa). however, I do see weaknesses left by Ivan, and if this pans out as I think it will, it looks like a carolinas storm.

Steve H. · #71 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:30 pm

Yes the circulation is better defined now even though it is over land! GFDL has this riding the spine of the island chain and coming in near Miami, then into the central part of the state. Of course this is the left outlier (even though CMC is west) and the NHC is moving off the coast toward the Carolinas, or even further off shore. The answer probably lies somewhere in between, and the NHC track will shift left. How far left and when is the question. This storm should stya just north of Hispaniola, which is a problem. This could be a cat II by late tomorrow. We'll see how shear plays into it, but near the end of the period the conditions should be favorable for intensification :eek:

CourierPR · #72 Postby **CourierPR** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:34 pm

The storm seems to be getting better organized despite the shear.

Josephine96 · #73 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:39 pm

It's winning the battle with the shear perhaps :wink:

ay · #74 Postby ay » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:49 pm

[quote="ericinmia"]LOL, For one to understand the NHC track one has to look at the previous runs. The NHC WILL NOT change their 5 day track drastically unless it effects someone in the immediate. In this case it doesn't... They do this to maintain consistancy, and round out guidance errors.
-Eric

I beg to differ. For Ivan, the NHC changed the 5 day forecast repeatedly. Going back to the runs on 9/8, 9/9 and 9/10, it moved all over the place. I was printing them out daily to show one day the track was far east, then back through Tampa, then west, then back through Tampa again, until finally consistently being west starting on the 11th.

I'm not saying this changes anything about Frances at all.

Josephine96 · #75 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:01 pm

Just out of curiosity.. I don't think I have ever had a post with this many views on it lol

#76 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:04 pm

nikolai wrote:at this point i think karl will be a fish.. (the wave just off Africa). however, I do see weaknesses left by Ivan, and if this pans out as I think it will, it looks like a carolinas storm.

wxwatcher2 · #77 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:23 pm

Josephine96, with all due respect. You're suffering from hurricane jet lag.
We're all bummed out with hurricanes here.

I think you are optomistic and sort of -removed- to say Jeanne is coming into central florida.

I think she never develops above a cat 1 storm and moves up through the bahamas and then curves out to sea never hitting CONUS.

take it to the bank.....
the piggy bank that is.
what do I know...
I have never even stayed at a holiday inn......express.....

#78 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:26 pm

wxwatcher2 wrote:Josephine96, with all due respect. You're suffering from hurricane jet lag.
We're all bummed out with hurricanes here.

I think you are optomistic and sort of -removed- to say Jeanne is coming into central florida.

I think she never develops above a cat 1 storm and moves up through the bahamas and then curves out to sea never hitting CONUS.

take it to the bank.....
the piggy bank that is.
what do I know...
I have never even stayed at a holiday inn......express.....

using the word -removed- is not allowed....if your that bummed out .....take a board break! :roll:

Josephine96 · #79 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:30 am

Exactly.. I am allowed to have my opinions.. and by the way.. the storm is moving in my direction.. so HA lol

Foladar · #80 Postby **Foladar** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:36 am

wxwatcher2 wrote:Josephine96, with all due respect. You're suffering from hurricane jet lag.
We're all bummed out with hurricanes here.

I think you are optomistic and sort of -removed- to say Jeanne is coming into central florida.

I think she never develops above a cat 1 storm and moves up through the bahamas and then curves out to sea never hitting CONUS.

take it to the bank.....
the piggy bank that is.
what do I know...
I have never even stayed at a holiday inn......express.....

It's suppose to become cat 2 as early as Sunday.

Jeanne and the East Coast

Who is online