Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[BobHarlem]

With 91l, only the euro AI model never developed it, interestingly it isn't developing this wave either. Google's deep mind ensembles show it however, and the euro ensembles are strong with it (and recurve or near bermuda). GFS ensembles aren't as enthusiastic.

[LarryWx]

This time the UKMET is even further W and threatens Bermuda:

0Z UK: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.0N 48.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2025 72 18.0N 48.8W 1008 38
1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 20.0N 51.3W 1007 42
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 21.2N 53.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 22.7N 55.1W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 22.5N 57.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 58.3W 1009 31
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 23.3N 59.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 23.9N 61.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 24.3N 63.1W 1007 31

[Pelicane]

Similar to the 18z GEFS, there's a decent chunk of 0z members that are much further SW than what the operational is showing.

The ECMWF and Euro AI models have been showing this could be a threat to Bermuda, so it'd be interesting to see if the GFS trends that way over the next few days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Intriguing indeed.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro is a hurricane SE of Bermuda

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

The wave is large but it's also quite healthy now. We should see a Invest being tagged later today.

[cycloneye]

The wave is large but it's also quite healthy now. We should see a Invest being tagged later today.

Coming very soon.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for
development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is up