2024 TCRs

[ljmac75]

PTC8 out - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082024_Eight.pdf
Hurricane Kirk out - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122024_Kirk.pdf

[Teban54]

PTC8 out - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082024_Eight.pdf
Hurricane Kirk out - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122024_Kirk.pdf

Kirk's peak is 130 kt / 928 mb.

[CrazyC83]

PTC8 out - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082024_Eight.pdf
Hurricane Kirk out - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122024_Kirk.pdf

Kirk's peak is 130 kt / 928 mb.

That seems about right - figured it would be either 130 or 135 kt.

[Category5Kaiju]

Fun fact: with Kirk's upgrade to a 150 mph hurricane, the last time a hurricane officially peaked at 145 mph would be nearly 11 years ago (Gonzalo). Beyond that, Cat 4 Atlantic hurricanes were either on the lower end (130 or 140) or the higher end (150 or 155). No dead in-the-road middle

[Teban54]

Fun fact: with Kirk's upgrade to a 150 mph hurricane, the last time a hurricane officially peaked at 145 mph would be nearly 11 years ago (Gonzalo). Beyond that, Cat 4 Atlantic hurricanes were either on the lower end (130 or 140) or the higher end (150 or 155). No dead in-the-road middle

Helene has a good chance to get a peak intensity bump to 125 kt / 145 mph in the TCR, however.

By the way, here are all missing Atlantic TCRs:
Ernesto, Francine, Helene, Milton, Oscar, Rafael

(I'm assuming Ernesto's delay may be due to damage reports in the Caribbean and Bermuda.)

[ljmac75]

Ernesto - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052024_Ernesto.pdf

Only 5 left! Francine, Helene, Milton, Oscar, Rafael. Place your bets now on the order they'll be released in.

[cycloneye]

My order of releases are: Oscar, Francine, Rafael, Milton, Helene.

[ColdMiser123]

Francine & Rafael now posted.

Louisiana landfall for Francine bumped up to 90 kt.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1899099717336007122



 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1899100908421832894

[ljmac75]

Louisiana landfall for Francine bumped up to 90 kt.

And to think a bunch of us were all going "will they keep landfall at 85 kts or will they bump it down to 80?" Went from being the strongest hurricane to hit Louisiana since Hurricane Ida to being the strongest hurricane to hit Louisiana since Hurricane Ida, which makes it a pretty major change if you ask me.

[galaxy401]

Went from being the strongest hurricane to hit Louisiana since Hurricane Ida to being the strongest hurricane to hit Louisiana since Hurricane Ida, which makes it a pretty major change if you ask me.

Those two points are the exact same thing BTW.

[Hammy]

With Rafael coming out before Oscar, that has me wondering if we're going to see big intensity changes on the latter

[cycloneye]

Oscar is up. Helene and Milton are the only ones left.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL162024_Oscar.pdf

The system is estimated to have made landfall
in Cuba as a 75-kt hurricane about 5 n mi east-southeast of Baracoa, Cuba

[MarioProtVI]

Oscar is up. Helene and Milton are the only ones left.

The system is estimated to have made landfall
in Cuba as a 75-kt hurricane about 5 n mi east-southeast of Baracoa, Cuba

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1899495405282312423

This is honestly the most disappointing of all of them, and makes me even more so when I see Papin (who is one of the best forecasters there now with in-depth analysis). There are several issues here:

- Oscar was absolutely stronger then 75 kt, especially on its Cuba landfall as satellite imagery suggested it was started to rapidly clear a proto-eye out, and it’s likely Oscar made landfall around 85-90 kt.
- It was only extended back about 12 hours to 00z, whereas factoring in that it was extremely small, it probably had a small LLC by 12z or 18z the day before, and too small to be resolved by satellite data.
- I have no clue why they left Oscar as a TC after Cuba, as all evidence points to dissipation as a TC near the northern coast of Cuba at 00z 10/22 (maybe even 18z 10/21) Whatever was left that somehow was marked as a TC was just an extremely ill-defined trough with little to no convection.

[Teban54]

With Rafael coming out before Oscar, that has me wondering if we're going to see big intensity changes on the latter

#agedlikemilk

To be fair, I still think Oscar had good arguments to be bumped up to at least 80 kts, if not Cat 2.

[Hammy]

With Rafael coming out before Oscar, that has me wondering if we're going to see big intensity changes on the latter

#agedlikemilk

To be fair, I still think Oscar had good arguments to be bumped up to at least 80 kts, if not Cat 2.

Based on satellite and radar presentation around landfall, it's going in my records as a Cat 2. 75kts makes no sense given they didn't even have it as a depression while it was a hurricane operationally

[CrazyC83]

Oscar is the first report that I have numerous disagreements on. I'd have moved up genesis further to 1200Z October 18. That takes into account the fact that the ASCAT pass likely was unable to resolve the LLC due to the small size, while the radar was showing signs of an LLC. I'd have it as a 30 kt tropical depression at 1200Z and a 35 kt tropical storm at 1800Z.

Additionally, I'd have leaned much more towards the higher end of the data for the Cuban landfall. Satellite has a tendency to underestimate tiny storms and the eye was clearing out. I'd have gone with an intensity of 85 kt at landfall. Additionally, the pressure was falling in the last couple passes - from 986 mb at 1130Z to 984 mb at 1300Z (adjusted for wind). Those were very near the KZC for an intensity around 75 kt. Based on that, the landfall pressure I'd estimate was 977 mb.

Finally, I agree as well that at least the LLC never left Cuba. It likely dissipated over the island around 0000Z October 22, with the true center onshore west-southwest of the BT point, and the 1800Z October 21 point should be farther west as well (the last BT point). By the time the Recon got to it, that was likely a remnant MLC being absorbed by the trough.

[ljmac75]

The lack of pressure data from Cuba is really unfortunate. Without that and without using SAR I guess it was a little hard to justify an increase in wind speeds. Only Helene and Milton left now! Which one will come out first? Helene, The Beast of the Big Bend, or Milton, The Terror of Tampa Bay?
Also the report for Gilma got updated apparently: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072024_Gilma.pdf

[cycloneye]

Only Milton is left. The Helene report has 105 pages for the members to discuss all about it.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092024_Helene.pdf

Excerpt:

Helene made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region as a Category 4 Hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). The storm brought historic catastrophic inland flooding and landslides, extreme winds, deadly storm surge, and numerous tornadoes that devastated portions of the southeastern United States and southern Appalachians. Helene was the deadliest hurricane for the contiguous U.S. since Katrina in 2005, with at least 248 fatalities (including at least 175 direct deaths), and produced an estimated $78.7 billion in damage in the United States.

[CrazyC83]

A few thoughts about Helene:

* Based on all the data, 120 kt seems reasonable, although a case could be made for 125 kt at landfall based on the radar and aircraft data. 939 mb seems reasonable for the pressure, since there was good data inland but not at the beach, and the pressure didn't drop too much as it moved inland (slower than most storms). It was still around 946 mb when it reached Georgia, after all.

* The gust factor was quite surprising, although I do think it may have had sustained hurricane force winds into South Carolina (those in North Carolina were at high elevations and unrepresentative of the true intensity). I'd go AFL4, DFL1, IGA2, ISC1 in the best track.

* One challenge will remain how best to warn high-end inland flooding. The areas were under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Flash Flood Watch/Warning, but the former sounds like we just need to stay at home, and the latter occurs fairly regularly.