2024 Global ACE: NH - 453.9 / NATL - 161.6 / EPAC - 82.0 / WPAC - 204.0 / NIO - 6.3

[kevin]

Over the next 2 days Milton will take the season's ACE into above-average territory, most likely in the low 130s. Two more late season hurricanes would then be enough to approach hyperactive status. But even if we don't reach that, 2024 has shown that it is anything but a bust.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Over the next 2 days Milton will take the season's ACE into above-average territory, most likely in the low 130s. Two more late season hurricanes would then be enough to approach hyperactive status. But even if we don't reach that, 2024 has shown that it is anything but a bust.

The hurricane numbers predicted are quite likely to verify at least. I think the season will end at 10-12 hurricanes with 5-6 of them being majors. I would surprised if we didn't see anything significant during the latter half of October/November.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Over the next 2 days Milton will take the season's ACE into above-average territory, most likely in the low 130s. Two more late season hurricanes would then be enough to approach hyperactive status. But even if we don't reach that, 2024 has shown that it is anything but a bust.

I know it's been said, but this was the oddest active/hyperactive season. September was your average October, whereas October was like a hyperactive September.

[TallyTracker]

According to CSU, the North Atlantic has now passed the West Pacific again for the highest ACE globally.

[cycloneye]

Apart from Milton, it looks like Leslie will keep adding a few more ACE points.

INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[cycloneye]

Great to see Leslie help lift the ACE as a bonus hurricane once again.

[weeniepatrol]

The last NHC package put seasonal ACE at 125 units. The official NOAA threshold for an above-average season is 126 units, 2024 becomes an above-average season.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1843847708026794313

The 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season has now generated 127 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), officially meeting NOAA's definition of an above-normal season

[Teban54]

This year's ACE compared to the 1991-2020 climo (which itself averages to above-average ACE):

[storminabox]

This year's ACE compared to the 1991-2020 climo (which itself averages to above-average ACE):

https://i.postimg.cc/L578Zvqq/image.png

Unbelievable comeback over the last two weeks. Nearly 70 ACE generated, 2016-like period.

2017-like period impact wise.

[Teban54]

If you were to pick one between "a long-tracking Cabo Verde hurricane" and "a homegrown hurricane that spent virtually all its time in the Gulf of Mexico"... Which one do you think has higher ACE?

Now that Milton has turned extratropical, its final ACE (as per CSU) is 23.5. Amazingly, this is slightly higher than Kirk, which generated 23.4 ACE. This makes Milton the 2nd highest ACE generator this season, only behind Beryl (35.1).

Even though Milton had fewer NS days, H days and MH days than Kirk, the higher intensity really boosted its ACE. Shoutout to GCANE, who had said in the Milton thread that it would generate significant ACE, even though almost everyone disagreed at that time.



Meanwhile, the 2024 ATL season now has 138.9 ACE, comfortably above-average. Leslie is still alive and will pump a bit more. By the time Leslie dissipates, all three October storms would have generated 15 ACE each. Other than 2020, I don't even know if any other season had three 15-ACE storms in October and November?

To reach hyperactivity, 2024 would need another 20.7 ACE. A bit challenging given late-season conditions (and that late-season hurricanes typically don't last very long), but as we've seen with Milton and the last 2 weeks in general, it's far from impossible. Another Milton would do the trick (not saying it's likely or desirable).

[weeniepatrol]

If you were to pick one between "a long-tracking Cabo Verde hurricane" and "a homegrown hurricane that spent virtually all its time in the Gulf of Mexico"... Which one do you think has higher ACE?

Now that Milton has turned extratropical, its final ACE (as per CSU) is 23.5. Amazingly, this is slightly higher than Kirk, which generated 23.4 ACE. This makes Milton the 2nd highest ACE generator this season, only behind Beryl (35.1).

Even though Milton had fewer NS days, H days and MH days than Kirk, the higher intensity really boosted its ACE. Shoutout to GCANE, who had said in the Milton thread that it would generate significant ACE, even though almost everyone disagreed at that time.

https://i.postimg.cc/85xB0V0Z/image.png

Meanwhile, the 2024 ATL season now has 138.9 ACE, comfortably above-average. Leslie is still alive and will pump a bit more. By the time Leslie dissipates, all three October storms would have generated 15 ACE each. Other than 2020, I don't even know if any other season had three 15-ACE storms in October and November?

To reach hyperactivity, 2024 would need another 20.7 ACE. A bit challenging given late-season conditions (and that late-season hurricanes typically don't last very long), but as we've seen with Milton and the last 2 weeks in general, it's far from impossible. Another Milton would do the trick (not saying it's likely or desirable).

A Bay of Campeche spinup generating more ACE than a long-tracking Cabo Verde major is absolute insanity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is this season will generate another 10 ACE points or so, likely Caribbean system and any other spin-ups. 2022 had Nicole in November, so anything is possible.

[kevin]

The Atlantic currently has an ACE of 144.6, placing it at #30 highest seasonal ACE since 1851. We are only 15 ACE removed from a hyperactive season so a big late-season WCar system such as Eta or Iota could be sufficient to get the season to that level.

[Steve]

The Atlantic currently has an ACE of 144.6, placing it at #30 highest seasonal ACE since 1851. We are only 15 ACE removed from a hyperactive season so a big late-season WCar system such as Eta or Iota could be sufficient to get the season to that level.

GFS shows one coming, and MJO models are even more favorable than they were last week. NCFS even points to a deep plunge into Phase 3 on 11/17.

NCFS


Bias-corrected Australian (should be an updated one out tomorrow)

[Ptarmigan]

I looked at the ACE around the world. Atlantic has higher ACE than West Pacific as of today.
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Random NATL Tidbit: 2024 has now the most ACE among List 4 years (which start with Alberto) at 145, surpassing 2018 which had 132.2. This is very likely to go higher.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1853935560999452722

[kevin]

CSU puts the current Atlantic ACE at 148.8, meaning that only 10.8 ACE is needed to get the season to hyperactive status. The current NHC advisory for Rafael gets us to about 10 - 11 ACE and Rafael's true ACE might even be a bit higher if it intensifies more than forecast. And that's not regarding any potential other system this season. Basically, hyperactivity seems very realistic.

[REDHurricane]

CSU puts the current Atlantic ACE at 148.8, meaning that only 10.8 ACE is needed to get the season to hyperactive status. The current NHC advisory for Rafael gets us to about 10 - 11 ACE and Rafael's true ACE might even be a bit higher if it intensifies more than forecast. And that's not regarding any potential other system this season. Basically, hyperactivity seems very realistic.

Yep, I think we'll probably end up in the ballpark of ~175 ACE total with Rafael + future Sara somewhere in the Caribbean in ~7-10 days + maybe Tony around November 17-22 + any activity that comes at the end of November/into December (not too unlikely in my opinion) -- even though the 200+ ACE forecasts aren't going to verify due to the weird tropical shenanigans that took place throughout the end of August/early September, I don't think anyone in their right mind would call this season anything close to a "bust" compared to consensus expert guidance. Plus, now we know that there's such a thing as "too favorable" of a hurricane environment, where the typical indicators of increased tropical activity in the MDR (strong AEJ, northerly WAM, etc.) can get amplified to the point where easterly wind shear and especially the influx of dry Saharan air from the north make conditions as equally unfavorable for tropical development as we usually observe when those indicators are flipped.