Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Extending to 240 hours of the Euro ensembles, the concern mounts bigtime. It will be all about how the ridge will be.
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WeatherBoy2000
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
This wave has pretty much everything going for it to be a long tracking major Cape Verde storm:
Favorable conditions
Record warm ssts
Coming off at a low latitude
Peak climo
A building ridge
very high model support
Although the Atlantic can be surprising, I don't see much of anything going against this wave for development.
Favorable conditions
Record warm ssts
Coming off at a low latitude
Peak climo
A building ridge
very high model support
Although the Atlantic can be surprising, I don't see much of anything going against this wave for development.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
SFLcane wrote:06z EPS very bullish one thing indeed that has my attention is this time around the strong members are actually to the south could be due to a strengthing ridge overhead as Idalia departs. This one has trouble all over it but well see.
https://i.postimg.cc/6QDQGCTG/hhhh.png
Yea, they're south of 00z. This could be our irma this year for the east coast and fl. A lot worse than idalia.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Is very early to have comparisons with past strong hurricanes. Let it be an Invest first, then see how the ridge behaves and go from there.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
I was looking at long range GFS and I can’t tell if it’s this storm that it brings across PR, Bahamas and then up the SEUS coast line.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
The key will be if there is a building ridge off the east coast. If it's just a weakening ridge, more chance than not it will find a weakness to scoot out. There doesn't necessarily have to be a big trough to pick it up. Long way out so we'll see!
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Michael
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
The Nhc's Tropical Cyclone Advisories are numbered 1-5 with them reusing it after 5. Right now there are 5. What happens if they need a 6th active system? (Right now all 5 are being used)
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
GFS 12z running, here we go.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
AutoPenalti wrote:GFS 12z running, here we go.
Full recurve out to sea?
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
SFLcane wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:GFS 12z running, here we go.
Full recurve out to sea?
Just now realizing how slow this system will be moving... next Friday it will still be closing in on the Islands.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
I’m always hearing about the LRC. I have a hard time believing that it is possible to predict these things that far out. Does anyone know if there has been any research papers done on the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle)?
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
ICON coming in south of last run and weaker.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Weaker and a stronger ridge on this run. I've grown to respect the ICON after seeing how it's performed in recent years. An underrated model imo.AutoPenalti wrote:ICON coming in south of last run and weaker.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
I agree with the sentiment of this tweet, but that guy is walking red flag imo. Every tweet he makes referring to his LRC involves a current weather event, and about a prediction supposedly made x months ago that he either never posted, or did post and it was so broad it might as well be climatology (I.e. “significant threat around 9/12” made 10 months ago). Weird to see content like this from a degreed meteorologist, knowing full well that we are nowhere close to being able to make specific predictions months in advance.
Sorry for the sidetrack, back to the regularly scheduled program
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Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Woofde wrote:Weaker and a stronger ridge on this run. I've grown to respect the ICON after seeing how it's performed in recent years. An underrated model imo.AutoPenalti wrote:ICON coming in south of last run and weaker.
Right there with the CMC in contention for the 3rd best global model. In fact it might have already passed up the CMC I would have to look at it’s verification from the last few hurricane seasons to see for sure.
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SFLcane
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
SFLcane wrote:
Poof! Can't ever take this model serious lol.
I think it's just forming later..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Can’t take the GFS too seriously.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Fri Sep 01, 2023 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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