SoupBone wrote:wxman57 wrote:Models are backing off on any offshore low development. Regardless, this would not be a wind threat, just some rain from SE LA to the western FL Peninsula Wed-Sat. Could use some of that here, but I did wake up to a thunderstorm that dropped 0.38" of rain in SW Houston.
I still haven't gotten crap. I was wedged between two cells yesterday, and got NOTHING.
SoupBone, I feel your pain, only got 1/4" of an inch, and lots of lightning, just N of BTR. But, the mammatus (sp) clouds afterwards sure put on a show. It was gorgeous, the colors.
From StormCast- Gulf Coast Weather this morning:
Lots of questions on this week. It's going to be a very tough forecast for meteorologists. There will be a very fine line to us dealing with a flood situation or very little rainfall. Some of these models (most of them actually) are eerily similar to the days leading up to the August 2016 flood. Will that happen again? Likely not, but just be safe and take any necessary precautions in case there's a surprise later in the week. So far most of these models are keeping the heaviest rains (near 30 inches in some models), offshore, BUT like we saw in August 2016, that can easily shift inland. This morning's 06z NAM has actually done this. While instead of a surface low developing and staying east of SELA, it actually develops it and slowly rides it west long the Louisiana coast, bringing the deepest tropical moisture right over SELA.
Definitely something we'll have to watch this week. -Scott Guidry