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Hammy wrote:skyline385 wrote:Hammy wrote:
For Caribbean systems especially, it might actually be ideal to go with the Canadian model--it's been the sane middle ground of sorts between the Euro's south and west bias (which makes a world of difference where land interaction is involved) and the GFS's tendency to lift north too much and over-intensify. The last batch of upgrades have done wonders in correcting it's tendency to blow up literally ever cloud into a hurricane--a mantle the GFS now carries.
That the GFS does pretty much develop everything makes the fact that it catches everything quite unremarkable, and essentially useless as a forecasting tool.
Calling it useless because of a few false flags 120+ hours in the future (which no one should be looking at seriously) is a stretch when it was the best track model last year and did good intensity wise as well, only behind the hurricane models.
GFS both dropped several systems last year and over-developed others that were either weak or never formed at all. GFS was also the only model that continuously developed systems in the Caribbean after September. It might be decent with track (though has a right-of-track bias) but it's terrible with genesis and intensity.
wxman57 wrote:"Death ridge" building over the TX/LA and NW Gulf this week. That'll keep any moisture way down south into CA or southern MX.
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:12z GFS initialized this very well convectively:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/985949800157548614/unknown.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/985949800547622982/unknown.png
wxman57 wrote:"Death ridge" building over the TX/LA and NW Gulf this week. That'll keep any moisture way down south into CA or southern MX.
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/bNH4AKb.gif
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