Strong Tropical Wave Emerging From West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[Woofde]

It just gets trapped on Bermuda in the 18z GFS run. The ridging doesn't let it go North and there's nothing to push it west either. Definitely a la la land run imo.

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[Category5Kaiju]

It just gets trapped on Bermuda in the 18z GFS run. The ridging doesn't let it go North and there's nothing to push it west either. Definitely a la la land run imo.

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Would be enough to give Bermuda Fabian flashbacks (also, fun thing to note, assuming this does become Fred, Fabian was the name used before Fred replaced it )

[aspen]

18z ensembles on WeatherNerds are quite active. However, the 18z GEFS ensembles on Tropical Tidbits are less active than 12z.

GFS tries to develop this in its first 48 hours over water. The NHC is saying it’ll splash down tomorrow night, but it looks like it might come off a little earlier.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
conducive for gradual development thereafter over the eastern
tropical Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Stormybajan]

Big ACE producer if it does what 18Z GFS has. What about a powerful hurricane?

https://i.imgur.com/8Qzh2cp.png

This is just like that random run gfs had at 06z August 1st. I'll believe this when I see it , either way though lets see if the 0z continues to show a stronger storm and if the euro will trend stronger also

[gatorcane]

Looks impressive but the MDR is quite dry and stable so let’s see after it makes the splash which it should be doing in the next 24 hours or so:

[AlphaToOmega]

Remember that waves can create favorable conditions for other waves. Waves can sacrifice themselves for other waves.

[aspen]

Looks impressive but the MDR is quite dry and stable so let’s see after it makes the splash which it should be doing in the next 24 hours or so:

https://i.postimg.cc/SQGC5zyW/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

Convection has noticeably increased in the MDR over the last week, though, as the MJO slowly slides into a more favorable pattern for the Atlantic. If this wave stays south enough, it could avoid most of the stable air during its early formation stages.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423093195139952642

[ConvergenceZone]

Quite an uptick in activity from the 12 GEFS ensembles. All of them recurve, but it appears to be due to the wave being tossed a little further north by the monsoon trough...

I’ll reiterate: this latest 12Z run just proves my earlier supposition that the strong African monsoon will cause lots of systems to eject northward and curve OTS. This will likely save the U.S. from most, if not all, potential CV-type threats, including this one, despite otherwise strong and robust mid-level ridging projected to be in place. The main issue is that the monsoonal trough will cause this system to eject westward at a high latitude that typically results in CV-type long-trackers curving OTS, especially in years in which TCG occurs farther east in the MDR than is usual. Starting in two and a half days the 12Z GEFS members show this prospective system gaining a full five degrees of latitude in little more than a day, thanks to the monsoonal trough. This will likely become a seasonal trend, thankfully, but we shall see.

Looks to me like a normal CV type system that will recurve, hopefully, like 99% of these storm do. I don't see any feature that guarantees this recurve though, and I feel like the timing of development is more important to future track. Quick developers tend to recurve away from the US mainland. I question why suddenly the eastern MDR might be so favorable when it seems some of us thought it wouldn't be.

I don't think I would put a normal recurve % near that high at 99%. I can't imagine 100 storms forming off the coast of Africa and only 1 out of 100 making it to the USA mainland...

[Category5Kaiju]

We'll have to watch to know for sure, but wouldn't a system that exits at a lower latitude have more difficulty recurving than those at higher latitudes?

[captainbarbossa19]

We'll have to watch to know for sure, but wouldn't a system that exits at a lower latitude have more difficulty recurving than those at higher latitudes?

Generally, this is the case. Speaking of which, the 0z GFS is showing this system a little more towards the south than the previous run.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

00z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.0N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 72 13.5N 29.1W 1012 24
1200UTC 08.08.2021 84 14.7N 31.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 09.08.2021 96 15.3N 35.1W 1012 29
1200UTC 09.08.2021 108 15.7N 38.9W 1011 29
0000UTC 10.08.2021 120 15.4N 41.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 10.08.2021 132 16.6N 43.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 11.08.2021 144 18.6N 46.6W 1011 30

[captainbarbossa19]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.0N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 72 13.5N 29.1W 1012 24
1200UTC 08.08.2021 84 14.7N 31.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 09.08.2021 96 15.3N 35.1W 1012 29
1200UTC 09.08.2021 108 15.7N 38.9W 1011 29
0000UTC 10.08.2021 120 15.4N 41.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 10.08.2021 132 16.6N 43.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 11.08.2021 144 18.6N 46.6W 1011 30

Is this the UKMET?

[weeniepatrol]

00z GFS:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.0N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 72 13.5N 29.1W 1012 24
1200UTC 08.08.2021 84 14.7N 31.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 09.08.2021 96 15.3N 35.1W 1012 29
1200UTC 09.08.2021 108 15.7N 38.9W 1011 29
0000UTC 10.08.2021 120 15.4N 41.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 10.08.2021 132 16.6N 43.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 11.08.2021 144 18.6N 46.6W 1011 30

Is this the UKMET?

Yes. Should've denoted that, sorry.

[Category5Kaiju]

0z GFS nowhere near as strong as 18z GFS, but the storm does not go OTS; rather, it seems to take one of those dreaded S-curve paths toward the Bahamas (when I say "S-curve," I refer to those paths like Andrew, Dorian, Frances, Floyd, or Donna, where the storm seems to turn north initially but then abruptly heads westward)

[Teban54]

0z GFS nowhere near as strong as 18z GFS, but the storm does not go OTS; rather, it seems to take one of those dreaded S-curve paths toward the Bahamas (when I say "S-curve," I refer to those paths like Andrew, Dorian, Frances, Floyd, or Donna, where the storm seems to turn north initially but then abruptly heads westward)

Seems like it recurves right before reaching the Outer Banks.

Obviously one shouldn't take these 384 hr runs at face value, but they do show there's a wide range of possibilities (dissipation in the MDR, major in subtropics, CONUS hit, etc).

[ScottNAtlanta]

GFS takes it about 2/3s of the way across and then kills it and moves it north. That makes no sense at all. If anything that's when the water really starts to warm, and I see no reason in its synoptic pattern for this to just poof like that. Again, though...that is way out. Lets see if the convection maintains as it is exiting the coast now. It even looks like it has some spin to it.

[chaser1]

0z GFS nowhere near as strong as 18z GFS, but the storm does not go OTS; rather, it seems to take one of those dreaded S-curve paths toward the Bahamas (when I say "S-curve," I refer to those paths like Andrew, Dorian, Frances, Floyd, or Donna, where the storm seems to turn north initially but then abruptly heads westward)

Specifically such type track that will likely pose the greatest risk to the SE CONUS, the Bahamas, and notably Florida this year. W. Atlantic ridge heights and especially ridge orientation will ultimately dictate enhanced landfall risk at that time. Aside from what has been a largely predominant strong mid level ridge pattern over the far W. Atlantic basin thus far, August is NOT the month the Florida Chamber of Commerce would want to be eyeballing an intensifying tropical cyclone just north of P.R.