Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 97L)

[Kingarabian]

EPS has weak support with only a grand total of 6-8 members developing a TS/TD from a wave at day 10. 15-20% chance of a TS development, with a recurve well east of the eastern seaboard.

Pretty deep trough off the east coast it seems.

[OuterBanker]

I'm confused. Is this not the nice little spin up around 37w 8n at 09z 27th?

[WAcyclone]

EPS has weak support with only a grand total of 6-8 members developing a TS/TD from a wave at day 10. 15-20% chance of a TS development, with a recurve well east of the eastern seaboard.

Pretty deep trough off the east coast it seems.

I am not sure if this particular wave is what some EPS members are developing but I counted at least 10 members (20%) showing a TD/TS by day 10 near the Lesser Antilles. After that, only two of them are clearly OTS (namely #8 and #22).

An EC threat is shown on #21 (TS into the OBX) and especially on #46 (Matthew-like scenario with a major hurricane paralleling Florida's east coast).

Florida itself gets hit by #7 (TD/weakTS) and #13 (very weak TD, probably just a low). Member #31 has a strong TS just offshore Port St. Lucie paralleling the coast.

The remaining three members have the storm dying in the Caribbean, Hispaniola or in the Bahamas.

Of course, these are scenarios at day 12-15 ("fantasy land") and 80% of the EPS is not showing any kind of development...

[Dean4Storms]

I'm confused. Is this not the nice little spin up around 37w 8n at 09z 27th?

Yes, seeing LL clouds moving east bound out in front of it. Looks like an organizing Low in there somewhere!

[gatorcane]

Here is the 00Z UKMET which yet again develops this. So the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC show development while the GFS and NAVGEM do not. Development chances seem to be creeping up on this area and it would not surprise me if we get an invest tag in the next couple of days:

[tailgater]

If this thread is about the disturbance at 9N 36W and the UKmet is showing development then I'm buying in. Looks like it organizing already.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[gatorcane]

Here is the wide shot animation for perspective - definitely looks like something is trying to get going with this area. Vorticity has increased as well looking at the 850MB charts. Shear is low and dry air looks tolerable so conditions appear conducive:

[AtlanticWind]

If this thread is about the disturbance at 9N 36W and the UKmet is showing development then I'm buying in. Looks like it organizing already.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1_20170727111500.gif

Yes ,but there also looks like a spin to the ne at about 11 N and 30/31W.
I think this is the one the hurricane center is tagging in yellow,but I think development
could come from either area.

[p1nheadlarry]

So what will it take to jumpstart this season and get things going?

the large scale forcing to become more favorable. We need to be patient. 2010 seemed like it was going to be a bust in terms of an active season through late August. It ended up hyperactive

This wave won't have the same large scale forcing that those a month from now will have

1999 was a late bloomer too, Bret was in August and nine or ten storms followed.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/h5-loop-vis.html

Looks like some banding on the spin at 31 west 11 north

[chaser1]

If this thread is about the disturbance at 9N 36W and the UKmet is showing development then I'm buying in. Looks like it organizing already.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1_20170727111500.gif

Yes ,but there also looks like a spin to the ne at about 11 N and 30/31W.
I think this is the one the hurricane center is tagging in yellow,but I think development
could come from either area.

I see that too. Competing vort centers perhaps; that or perhaps the one to the northeast reflecting at a different level? In either case though, this season has shown tendancy toward low latitude systems to form so purely based on the immediate and what my eyes are seeing... I'd guess that the area to the Southwest might be in place most favorable to try and spin up. Outflow look healthy so I would see no reason to assume that convection will simply become capped.

[gatorcane]

How the 12Z CMC ends with the system heading WNW just north of the Lesser Antilles and gaining strength:

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is showing this staying low in latitude and transversing the Caribbean where it starts to form a weak low with landfall in central Louisiana at 372 hrs, all I can say is this could be the start of the lid coming off and many more storms to come in the next few months, I would watch this one carefully as of next week as the CCKW comes in

[USTropics]

Vorticity at the surface, while still elongated, has consolidated over the past 24 hours (it was extremely stretched out yesterday):

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from the Cabo
Verde Islands southwestward across the Atlantic are primarily
associated with a tropical wave. Slow development is possible over
the next several days while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[tarheelprogrammer]

How the 12Z CMC ends with the system heading WNW just north of the Lesser Antilles and gaining strength:

That is similar to the 0z run of the ECMWF, correct?

[Nimbus]

A weakness between those two highs must have steered the system north of the islands in that run.
NHC still pegging development at 30% over the 5 day period.
This looks like it could be another invest with projected track into the Bahamas?
I thought we might get a TD out of the last invest before it hit the stable dry air and TUTT shear.

[gatorcane]

Appears the 12Z Euro drops development.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET coming in weaker. Looks to develop it then open it back up to a wave and then develop a low again. What you see here is development of the western part of the wave/trough as seen by the image shots at hour 108 and 168:

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like SAL wins once again, according to the Euro.