Posible GOM development?

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated HPC/WPC Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts do suggest a weak surface low developing into the Bay of Campeche and slowly drifting N along a trough axis extending N into Louisiana. The TUTT low slowly drifts WNW as a blocking Ridge takes hold over the Tennessee Valley Region. It does not appear this is anything other than a rain maker along the Gulf Coast.

[Stormcenter]

Some heavy rain and wind, I don't think many of us expect much more out of this than that right now but things can change.
The water down there is still plenty warm.

The afternoon updated HPC/WPC Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts do suggest a weak surface low developing into the Bay of Campeche and slowly drifting N along a trough axis extending N into Louisiana. The TUTT low slowly drifts WNW as a blocking Ridge takes hold over the Tennessee Valley Region. It does not appear this is anything other than a rain maker along the Gulf Coast.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to already have a MLC north of Panama and may be developing faster than anticapated

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[Dean4Storms]

A sloppy TS is certainly a slim possibility, especially over the southern GOM. A bigger threat of shear lies in the central and northern GOM.

[NDG]

look mess in south west carribbean could that part of system for weekend

Yes, that is part of the moisture source/energy for the system that the GFS has been developing.
It is shown clearly on the GFS's H70-h40 moisture forecast loop.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=519

[NDG]

Looking at the 12z GFS run in detail, it still shows the system getting decapitated as soon it starts tracking across the central GOM and into the central gulf coast.

[Stormcenter]

Does it show the guillotine doing this to the system?

Looking at the 12z GFS run in detail, it still shows the system getting decapitated as soon it starts tracking across the central GOM and into the central gulf coast.

[NDG]

Does it show the guillotine doing this to the system?

Looking at the 12z GFS run in detail, it still shows the system getting decapitated as soon it starts tracking across the central GOM and into the central gulf coast.

Yeap, the guillotine will be waiting for it across the central and northern GOM

[ROCK]

well the CMC doesn't think so....

so it is telling us there is a chance!!

[stormlover2013]

If the models show this on Friday then I'll be interested, but I don't trust any of these models!!

[Stormcenter]

Nothing is set in stone development wise, strength wise or whatever so we take everything with a grain of salt
right now especially pertaining to what the models are saying. IMO

[ROCK]

FWIW the 0Z 15KM FIM 9 model is showing the system hitting a wall just about where the CMC has it and shunting what's left into Texas. Looks like the trof leaves it behind as the high builds in...

[stormlover2013]

Yeah models struggling on pattern

[Weatherwatcher98]

Models have struggled this entire season

[ROCK]

I would say the GOM is really warm still....lol

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Steve]

GFS is a trip with that Yucatan system and ending with another system in the WC at the end of that moisture run. It's pulling the double shot ala 2002 but without a final solution on the second system.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. While
environmental conditions are not favorable for development over the
next couple of days, this system is expected to be approaching the
southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Although upper-level
winds are not expected to be particularly conducive there, some
development is possible while the system moves northward early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[ronjon]

18z GFS similar to 12z run except slightly eastward track toward mobile.

[CourierPR]

GFS is a trip with that Yucatan system and ending with another system in the WC at the end of that moisture run. It's pulling the double shot ala 2002 but without a final solution on the second system.

Steve, what is the WC?

[Steve]

Western Caribbean. Sorry about that. It was on the 12z, but I don't see it anymore on the 18z. It's 16 days, so it's whatever anyway. But this was the image.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model