2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Imagine if the only CONUS landfall...is in California? I could certainly see such.

I know it happened in 1939 and 1858, but I have a hard time imaging such.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS hints at something around May 15. Season right around the corner folks.

[Kingarabian]

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CFS hints at something around May 15. Season right around the corner folks.

Increased moisture and some weak lows:


Maybe something will start spinning soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Increased moisture and some weak lows:


Maybe something will start spinning soon.

MJO is very weak and hiding in the IO right now. Furthermore, the NPAC ridge is a bit NE to where I'd like it to be for storms to start spinning. ITCZ still straddles the equator, though the GFS shows both patterns changing in a week or so.

[cycloneye]

Long range GFS shows the first EPAC system forming by early May. Yellow Evan,this is something to watch or nothing like GFS noise?

[Yellow Evan]

Long range GFS shows the first EPAC system forming by early May. Yellow Evan,this is something to watch or nothing like GFS noise?

http://i.imgur.com/oj8n6xv.png

Given the timing makes sense with the MJO, yes, watch it. also going to note it shows a pattern change with the Pacific High migrating SE, making conditions a bit more favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS hints at a favorable environment with rising air by week 4.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's gonna be a long season.

The combination of a near-record-breaking positive PDO and intensifying ENSO have boosted East Pacific sea surface temperatures to some of the warmest levels on record. With an atmosphere characteristic of an El Nino, vertical wind shear across the basin has been running average to below average. Vertical instability is well above average. Based on this information, I expect another hyperactive season, and I'm currently calling for 21-23 named storms, 13-15 hurricanes, 6-8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index near 200 units.

[Yellow Evan]

12z shows Andres

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS shows Andres heading into MX.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and its ensembles continue to agree on Andres by day 15-16.

[Yellow Evan]

Latent GFS shows a potent hurricane

[Kingarabian]

Latent GFS shows a potent hurricane

That doesn't look good for Mexcio. Hope this season is kind to them...

[Yellow Evan]

Latent GFS shows a potent hurricane

That doesn't look good for Mexcio. Hope this season is kind to them...

Well, the GFS for now keeps it at sea.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is pretty off and on. 12z GFS also showed a hurricane, but 18z GFS showed nothing.

[CaliforniaResident]

Imagine if the only CONUS landfall...is in California? I could certainly see such.

I know it happened in 1939 and 1858, but I have a hard time imaging such.

If it happened once, it could happen again.
I am going to predict that the storm of the year will be Waldo (the name gives me such a goofy vibe that I expect him to show up where you'd LEAST expect him), a late season EPAC hurricane that maxes out at a cat 5 but makes landfall as a strong TS or minimal cat 1 somewhere between L.A and San Diego. A region that declares 'stormwatch' whenever they get more than a quarter of an inch of rain will be deluged with 5 inches in a single day and 70+ mph winds. It will happen around October 10th.

[Yellow Evan]

I know it happened in 1939 and 1858, but I have a hard time imaging such.

If it happened once, it could happen again.

Even if the records say such, I have some doubts as whether they were actually TC's.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Imagine if the only CONUS landfall...is in California? I could certainly see such.

I know it happened in 1939 and 1858, but I have a hard time imaging such.

If it happened once, it could happen again.
I am going to predict that the storm of the year will be Waldo (the name gives me such a goofy vibe that I expect him to show up where you'd LEAST expect him), a late season EPAC hurricane that maxes out at a cat 5 but makes landfall as a strong TS or minimal cat 1 somewhere between L.A and San Diego. A region that declares 'stormwatch' whenever they get more than a quarter of an inch of rain will be deluged with 5 inches in a single day and 70+ mph winds. It will happen around October 10th.

So confident, but it seems very unrealistic. It is likely that storm formations this year may occur at lower latitudes since that is where the warmest anomalies are. There is the killer wind shear and possibly very dry air over that area (Baja Norte and SoCal) There may even be doubts that those storms before were actually tropical, since data at that time was very sparse.

[Yellow Evan]

If it happened once, it could happen again.
I am going to predict that the storm of the year will be Waldo (the name gives me such a goofy vibe that I expect him to show up where you'd LEAST expect him), a late season EPAC hurricane that maxes out at a cat 5 but makes landfall as a strong TS or minimal cat 1 somewhere between L.A and San Diego. A region that declares 'stormwatch' whenever they get more than a quarter of an inch of rain will be deluged with 5 inches in a single day and 70+ mph winds. It will happen around October 10th.

So confident, but it seems very unrealistic. It is likely that storm formations this year may occur at lower latitudes since that is where the warmest anomalies are. There is the killer wind shear and possibly very dry air over that area. There may even be doubts that those storms were actually tropical, since data at that time was very sparse.

TC's very rarely happens even in El Ninos at the very low latitudes. With the warm PDO and eNOD, I think we'd see a number of interesting tracks this season.

[Yellow Evan]

Kinda off-related, but CMC shows a SEPAC TC.

Also shows the high moving SE somewhat, which means CMC should start showing plenty of phantom storms soon.