Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 92L)

[Ptarmigan]

will nhc make this invest?

If it makes it to the Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

will nhc make this invest?

If it makes it to the Caribbean.

Invest'd can be declared anywhere, not just the Caribbean.

[colbroe]

Looks like it is building some convection,coming together slightly at this time

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The associated showers
and thunderstorms remain disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur. Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[gatorcane]

IR Saved image of the area:

[HurricaneTracker2031]

The Low Pressure area looks like it is trying to get its act together and some convection is swirling around the center. Due to the Dry Air and SAL situation, it has 48 hours to start up...




Synopsis of Atlantic and other basins: http://goo.gl/lfgvSm


PERSONAL FORECAST DISCLAIMER
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Marine forecast made earlier this morning.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE FORECAST FOR
LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC.
GFS RUNS BEFORE 20/00Z HAS DEVELOPED A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED IT
NW TOWARD THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THIS WAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
IDEA...BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN DEVELOPS ELONGATED LOW PRES AT THE
INTERSECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALBEIT
FROM DIFFERENT ORIGINS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BUILDS WINDS TO 25
KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THE 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE ASCAT AS
IS THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM
HERE INITIALLY. THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 20 KT AND NEVER ALLOWS
SEAS TO BUILD OVER 7 FT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
COMING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE UKMET IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS BY PROPAGATING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE GFS SOLUTION
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE CHANGE IN THE UKMET
FORECAST TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT THE GFS WAS
OTHERWISE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

[Blown Away]

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

At 2am - Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

I guess they are giving Pouch 03L a slightly better shot beyond a few days!!

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is up