2014 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

I'm not saying this 'uptick' will verify because it is very unusual at this time of the year and it's all in the models, but the models could be seeing conditions getting more favorable in the coming weeks...and could be related to ENSO flipping to a warmer (El Nino) phase...

[stormkite]

Mid-Feb Numbers: 27/17/8 due to an El Nino coming.

What gives you that idea to be so confident xtyphooncyclonex.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

But I'm not saying that an El Nino could ACTUALLY HAPPEN, I mean it is highly possible. I am also 50% confident and the El Nino is forecast to occur in the peak of the season, and now we have 2 tropical storms, which is quite unusual this early.

And in terms of storm formation, it may be more likely at this time as the cold surge is far enough that conditions here in Cebu and most of the South Philippines are too warm for February, which actually is the coldest month.

GFS shows a strong typhoon which eerily reminds me of Mike of 1990.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormkite]

I myself think you are spot on that is the way it's heading.








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

Very impressive run from GFS showing a broad monsoon type system that at first is only one system but then swallows up another developing system! Another develops southeast of guam and does a fujiwhara with the other storm while hitting guam the other gets pulled and hits palau!



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[cycloneye]

WPAC has Invest 93W.

[euro6208]

Active season coming up with low sea level pressures forecasted which will enhance tropical development and add in El Nino

[Kingarabian]

A lot of talk that we may get an El-Nino this year and a lot of talk that it will be as strong or maybe stronger than the super El-Nino of 96-97(note: that year the WPAC had a Super Typhoon in April).

I think for us to see a strong El-Nino this year, we're going to need a Super Typhoon. So I wouldn't be surprised if the WPAC manages to spawn one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Early March UNOFFICIAL FORECAST.

Thinking possibly of a close repeat of 2013's season. Except that this will be more of a "high-quality" season and have many recurves. The season may peak on Mid-October, again.

My numbers are 28/18/6.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Following Faxai, another tropical system shows up making landfall in the Philippines as shown in the latest GFS run. This is still in the long-range though.

[euro6208]

Next 22 names:

Peipah, Tapah, Mitag, Hagibis, Neoguri, Rammasun, Matmo, Halong, Nakri, Fengshen, Kalmaegi, Fung-wong, Kammuri, Phanfone, Vongfong, Nuri, Sinlaku, Hagupit, Jangmi, Mekkhala, Higos, Bavi

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We have our first typhoon!

[CaliforniaResident]

Have typhoons from the Western Pacific ever brought heavy rain to California?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Have typhoons from the Western Pacific ever brought heavy rain to California?

In 2009, the remnants of super typhoon Melor moved through California causing heavy rains and gale winds.

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah remnants of recurving typhoons can bring rain to California, or extratropical systems that originate from a typhoon.


IMO if a strong El Nino will develop this year, you just have to look in your own yard for rainmakers, like EPAC hurricanes. By the way, my parents are from San Bruno and they said it's been raining hard for a few days, worse in southern cities like LA.. They say that kind of weather is unusual. I'm not sure but I think that could be a sign of a rainy year for CA with a possible Nino developing...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014's typhoon season is 227% above normal. We possibly could see a repeat of 2013, but, it would be a higher quality version as I have previously said. I have also noticed that the first 3 storms [Lingling, Kajiki & Faxai] of 2014 have the supposed scenario of the first 3 storms of 2013 [Sonamu, Shanshan & Yagi] storms.

SONAMU supposed to be 65 km/h and shear---> LINGLING had that scenario.
SHANSHAN supposed to be in high shear too --> KAJIKI had that scenario too.
YAGI almost/was supposed to be a typhoon ---> FAXAI rapidly intensified.

AND Possibly, PEIPAH would be a strong/severe tropical storm as LEEPI was supposed to have that intensity, but it got sheared.

[euro6208]

2014's typhoon season is 227% above normal. We possibly could see a repeat of 2013, but, it would be a higher quality version as I have previously said. I have also noticed that the first 3 storms [Lingling, Kajiki & Faxai] of 2014 have the supposed scenario of the first 3 storms of 2013 [Sonamu, Shanshan & Yagi] storms.

SONAMU supposed to be 65 km/h and shear---> LINGLING had that scenario.
SHANSHAN supposed to be in high shear too --> KAJIKI had that scenario too.
YAGI almost/was supposed to be a typhoon ---> FAXAI rapidly intensified.

AND Possibly, PEIPAH would be a strong/severe tropical storm as LEEPI was supposed to have that intensity, but it got sheared.

Yup season starting off fast!

Already at 6.8225

Normal Year to Date is 3

227% above normal...Pretty impressive...

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

*This website uses only 1 min winds from NHC, CPHC and JTWC for ACE...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS forecasts Faxai part II which may enhance the westerlies...

[dexterlabio]

GFS is at it again with another tropical storm a week from now. I don't know if there's something with their system this year or the tropical Pacific is indeed starting to ripe up at this early...maybe a sign of ENSO warming up.. For the past few years I haven't seen any models showing development within Jan-March period. The first three cyclones this year verified, let's see with this one...

[euro6208]

GFS still at it developing this down the road and takes a classic westerly jog.