Another Gulf storm? - (Is invest 96L)

[ronjon]

00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm forming in the BOC/W Yuc and moving NE into the FL panhandle on Sunday.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[Janie2006]

KMOB taking notice now that Lee has departed:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BOTH THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE STARTING TO MOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MOVING
NORTH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE LACKADAISICAL...DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND MEANDERING IT TOWARDS MEX. THE CANADIAN AND ENSEMBLES
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS...SO HAVE WENT THIS WAY WITH THE FORECAST.
WITH ANY POSSIBLE LANDFALL NEXT WEEK...HAVE A BIT OF TIME TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FOR OUR LITTLE PIECE OF THE GULF.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the GFS is going for a much more drier solution regarding the developing Low Pressure area in the BOC, drifting the system very slowly this weekend west into Mexico.

THe latest run from ECMWF develops a rather healthy tropical storm moving north or northeast toward the NE Gulf region.

So, we have a big divergence with GFS and Euro for the time being with this developing system late this week. It will be interesting to see which scenario wins out.

My thinking is if this system organizes rather quickly, the Euro solution I think would materialize as I think enough of a weakness will still be in place to lift the system out by Saturday. However, a meandering system slow to organize would likely miss the window of opportunity to move through the weakness. Therefore, the system would likely either stay pinned down in the BOC, or be nearly stationary with weak pressure pattern in place to steer the system. This scenario could allow the system to drift west into Mexico should a weak steering environment takes place by the weekend.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[nashrobertsx]

NO/BR (LIX) AFD

AT SOME POINT WE WILL HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS AREA IS
CURRENTLY VERY UNSETTLED AND HAS THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF A
STALLED COLD FRONT. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A DISTURBANCE
TO DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS NOT IF...BUT INSTEAD...ONCE IT DOES
WHERE DOES IT GO? SOMETHING SHOULD BE SHOWING UP AS EARLY AS WED.
AFTER IT DEVELOPS...A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE THU AND
FRI. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER. THE PORTFOLIO OF
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
EURO TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR PENSACOLA BY SUNDAY AND THE GFS TAKING
IT INTO MEXICO. ALL MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AROUND THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CAUSING A STRONG TROUGH
TO ONCE AGAIN DIG AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS THE WEAKNESS THAT
MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKS ARE SHOWING BREAKING THE RIDGE AND
PULLING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. THE INTERESTING
THING IS THAT THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS SAME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BUT BUILDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DISTURBANCE CUTTING OFF ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS.

THE REASON FOR THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM MORE SLOWLY BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTHWARD AND THEREFORE GIVES THE BERMUDA RIDGE TIME TO DEVELOP
BACK WESTWARD BEHIND KATIA AND INTO THE GULF. THE EURO DEVELOPS IT
QUICKER AND STARTS ITS NORTHWARD JOURNEY SOONER SO THAT WHEN THE
BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS WEST IT IS TOO LATE. SO AS USUAL...TIMING
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHERE THIS ONE ENDS UP. THE
SHORTER THE TIME THE DISTURBANCE STARTS MOVING NORTH...THE MORE
BETS WILL BE ON A EURO SOLUTION. A LITTLE LATER AND THE GFS WINS.
EVEN LATER AND NONE WILL GET IT RIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WOULD GET
PUSHED TOWARD THE SW INTO CENTRAL MEXICO

[ronjon]

06z NAM similar to Euro. I agree that a more rapidly developing system may feel the tug north sooner but I also see that that the Euro and GFS disagree on just how far west the mid-level cutoff low moves over the midwest. The Euro brings the cutoff low into SW Missouri and GFS is slower to retrograde it west with a rather flat trough that doesn't dig down to the gulf coast - so the GFS misses the trough connection. Another factor is where the system forms - a little further north and it should feel the tug - a little south it won't.

NAM

[cycloneye]

20%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[BigA]

Convection is popping this morning; wind shear looks rather favorable. Models seem closer to a consensus on at least development (though the Canadian is something of an outlier on not developing it).

Here's a rundown on where the latest runs (that develop it) take it

Euro: North
GFS: West into Mexico
FIM/FIMY: North
UKMET: North
NOGAPS: Meandering in Bay of Campeche
NAM: North

[Cranica]

How much is the bone-dry air behind the front going to affect this? You don't often see the dryer-than-brown black on the WV.

[BigA]

20%

We should probably expect investment soon, especially given proximity to land and the GOM/BOC's abillity to rapidly spin up systems.

[RL3AO]

96L at the 12z ATCF update?

[northjaxpro]

96L at the 12z ATCF update?

If the trend with the convection continues to hold throughout the day and maintains, then I possibly think NHC would designate this an invest sometime either later tonight or by tomorrow morning.

It is looking pretty decent at the moment. It will be interesting once again to see if Euro solution will win out vs. the GFS solution which we have pointed out in the posts above this one.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather of BOC area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Possible This Week:
I am closely monitoring an area of thunderstorms now embedded deep in the Bay of Campeche. Most of the model guidance continues to forecast that this disturbed weather will develop sometime between Thursday and Saturday. The European model and the GFS model have switched forecasts since yesterday with the European model forecasting a track that takes this system into the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and the GFS model forecasting a track westward into Tampico, Mexico on Monday.

As I mentioned yesterday, I think the westward track may be incorrect given that we have a high pressure ridge over the southwestern United States and a mean deep layer trough of low pressure over the eastern United States.

Based on that, I think we will see a tropical system develop in the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days and then track northeastward on Friday and Saturday as it strengthens into a tropical storm. This system may then come ashore along the Florida Panhandle on Sunday as a tropical storm.

The NAM model, which actually did quite well with the forecast development of Lee, forecasts that this Bay of Campeche disturbance will develop into a tropical storm by late Wednesday or Thursday. After that, the NAM model forecasts this developing tropical storm to track northeastward by Friday and develop into a hurricane.

This potential development will be watched closely this week and I will keep you all updated.

edited by tolakram: changed Irene to Lee

[crownweather]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather of BOC area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Possible This Week:
I am closely monitoring an area of thunderstorms now embedded deep in the Bay of Campeche. Most of the model guidance continues to forecast that this disturbed weather will develop sometime between Thursday and Saturday. The European model and the GFS model have switched forecasts since yesterday with the European model forecasting a track that takes this system into the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and the GFS model forecasting a track westward into Tampico, Mexico on Monday.

As I mentioned yesterday, I think the westward track may be incorrect given that we have a high pressure ridge over the southwestern United States and a mean deep layer trough of low pressure over the eastern United States.

Based on that, I think we will see a tropical system develop in the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days and then track northeastward on Friday and Saturday as it strengthens into a tropical storm. This system may then come ashore along the Florida Panhandle on Sunday as a tropical storm.

The NAM model, which actually did quite well with the forecast development of Irene, forecasts that this Bay of Campeche disturbance will develop into a tropical storm by late Wednesday or Thursday. After that, the NAM model forecasts this developing tropical storm to track northeastward by Friday and develop into a hurricane.

This potential development will be watched closely this week and I will keep you all updated.

I meant Lee not Irene. Ugh!!

[tailgater]

How much is the bone-dry air behind the front going to affect this? You don't often see the dryer-than-brown black on the WV.

Yeah that's REALLY dry air for the GOM, I would think it could limit development of a strong storm from wrapping up down there but it probably will have a good moist flow from the Caribbean and eastern Pacific to get it started.

[tolakram]

I meant Lee not Irene. Ugh!!

I changed it in the original post.

[BigA]

Couple semi-unrelated comments on this system.

The SREF (short range ensemble forecast) for the US and adjacent areas forecasts that the dryair will not be a fatal problem, largely remaining in the northwestern GOM. I can't find many models that forecast the dryness of the air, so I used the CAPE (convective available potential energy) to determine how conductive the atmosphere will be for convective development.

Many of the GFS ensembles (in the 00 and 06 runs) take this system northeastward, so even within the GFS the westward movement is not a foregone conclusion. I would say the preponderance of all models forecast a N/NE movement, but certainly not a consensus.

[underthwx]

wont be surprised to see 60% at end of day...

[Aric Dunn]

one thing is for sure. its going to have a hard time for the first few days do to the extremely dry air to its NW. it will take some time to moisten that up. but it should develop enough to be classified then battle the dry air until it starts moving to the NE away from the dry air.

[jes]

BIGA ----- thanks so much for posting the latest runs for us. That is so helpful!!

[Aric Dunn]

man there is some serious dry air this will have to deal with...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html