Pouch PGI51L : East of the Windwards (Is part of invest 97L)

[Vortex]

notice sprawling High to the N...nothing is heading out to sea anytime soon...

[Vortex]

This low or wave near 50 looks to come very far west and will either develop or aid in additional energy for the western carribean system

[Vortex]

Ahhhh and we merge....not anyother one




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

[btangy]

PREDICT will be flying through this system tomorrow. Sadly, it will be our final mission as our field campaign concludes tomorrow. So no more PGI designations to use after tomorrow.

The primary wave axis is ahead of most of the deep convection. The convection firing in the region is mostly due to upper-level divergence associated with a deep central Atlantic upper-tropospheric trough to the N of PGI51L. There is very little low-level convergence, but an ASCAT pass from earlier today showed an interesting tight vorticity maximum around 12N, 55W. It may be phony data or it may be that PGI51L is a little more organized than we all think. Dropsonde data from the NCAR-GV will be interesting tomorrow.

In any event, the global models don't really want to develop this system, but some of the internal mesoscale ensembles from PSU and SUNY Albany that we have access to indicates that there is fair to good chance of development once this system reaches the Leeward Islands.

[northjaxpro]

Ahhhh and we merge....not anyother one




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

This would be some pattern setting up over the SW Atlantic basin as the monsoonal trough expands more eastward if this model run verified.

I don't know how much to buy into this particular run, but it is plausible. However, if this come to fruition, one thing I do notice is the High Pressure is ridging across the North Atlnatic and nothing looks to escape north out into sea should something develop based on this particular long range GFS run. This is a pattern set-up that you would expect for August, not the first week of October.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps bring it into the carribean


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

If the Nogaps or Nam verify this would make for interesting times for puerto rico and further west...

[Vortex]

I think we may get an invest tomorrow...

[northjaxpro]

I think we may get an invest tomorrow...

One would be inclined to think so Vortex. We shall see.

[Vortex]

It does have some model support and the conditions over the next 3-4 days look increasingly favorable aloft...

[northjaxpro]

It does have some model support and the conditions over the next 3-4 days look increasingly favorable aloft...

Oh I agree. Euro has been all over this one for awhile. I think this system has a fair shot of developing.

[srainhoutx]

PREDICT will be flying through this system tomorrow. Sadly, it will be our final mission as our field campaign concludes tomorrow. So no more PGI designations to use after tomorrow.

The primary wave axis is ahead of most of the deep convection. The convection firing in the region is mostly due to upper-level divergence associated with a deep central Atlantic upper-tropospheric trough to the N of PGI51L. There is very little low-level convergence, but an ASCAT pass from earlier today showed an interesting tight vorticity maximum around 12N, 55W. It may be phony data or it may be that PGI51L is a little more organized than we all think. Dropsonde data from the NCAR-GV will be interesting tomorrow.

In any event, the global models don't really want to develop this system, but some of the internal mesoscale ensembles from PSU and SUNY Albany that we have access to indicates that there is fair to good chance of development once this system reaches the Leeward Islands.

Thank you for your service. The PREDICT Team offered a lot of information that has been useful in so many ways and different levels. I know I have fully come to understand the word 'pouch' much better. I too noticed the ASCAT and look forward to your comments regarding development.

[cycloneye]

I also commend the Predict team for all of what they did during the season.

[HURAKAN]

btangy, so sad to hear that. You guys have provided so much information that wasn't available before for systems before being designated as invests. Thank you very much!!!

[Blown Away]

Why is this area not getting more attention? The convection has increased and persisted all day and there is some model support? In a few days it seems the upper level conditions will improve.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[northjaxpro]

I must say that I am surprised that this did not get bumped up to at least 20% at 8:00 p.m.

I maintain though that if the convection continues to persist, we will see an invest out of this within a day or so.

[Vortex]

12Z canadian also develops it and takes it west into DR.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[northjaxpro]

Another interesting feature on that Canadian run Vortex is the Low pressure area off the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast in the final frames. It gets blocked by the High pressure ridge north of it .