GOM Hurricane soon?

[KWT]

Yes that is interesting, looks like they are thinking that conditions are condusive for gradual development, but obviously with only 20% risk right now they don't think its going to develop in the next 48hrs.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Prelim Disco...concerning the GOM

MEANWHILE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE PROVIDING GRADUALLY STRONGER HINTS THAT FLOW
AROUND THE PERSISTENT SRN CONUS/WRN ATLC RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
STEER ONE OR MORE TROPICAL FEATURES FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWWD INTO
OR NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXTRAPOLATION OF YDAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATION BRINGS A SFC CENTER INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COMPATIBLE WITH 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE PARALLEL GFS/CANADIAN ARE ON THE RIGHT
EXTREME OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE.

[ronjon]

Convection looking real healthy now - we might have 93L today. Upper level winds have really relaxed.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/latest_image_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[srainhoutx]

KEY thoughts this morning...hmmm...

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS
INDICATES THE INITIAL TROPICAL WAVE WILL MIGRATE WEST/WEST NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT NEAR OUR
REGION THURSDAY...BEFORE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. OF
NOTE...GFS REVEALS A LACK OF SHARPNESS/CURVATURE ALONG WITH MODEST
AT BEST WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. CONVERSELY...ECMWF KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND THE WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL VERY BULLISH AND
FURTHEST NORTH...ECMWF TAKING A LOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS-ENSEMBLE MUCH WEAKER AND WAY SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. DUE TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE AND A LACK OF DATA SAMPLING CURRENTLY IN THIS
REGION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. REGARDLESS...GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL POPS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE CHANGEABLE SKIES...INTENSE LATE
JUNE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE NEAR 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80.

[KWT]

The fact that there is actually some convection out there and a wave out there does bring more confidence to the CMC/ECM solutions are they aren't just creating a totally phantom system out of nothing.

Could well have 93L if it can hold the convection given some of the models are developing it.

[ronjon]

Another view this morning:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/recentvis.html

[tolakram]

I posted the following in the 92L thread. Not sure if this will be a new invest or a reactivation (is that even considered)?

I agree the 92L energy is washed out, but what are they seeing down here? Perhaps the start of something on the MIMIC-TPW loop, but not much.

- - - - -

I'm confused.

Floater is back, labeled 92L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

and now this:



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Looking art the latest MIMIC-TPW



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I have to think this will be a new invest rather than 92L since the energy from 92L seems to be well north and west of this area.

[tolakram]

Perhaps they are thinking the rotation evident below will move into this area?

[ronjon]

I think here's the reason that the ECM, CMC, and NOGAPs are bullish on development. A large upper level anticyclone is predicted to move in tandem with the caribbean wave and be positioned over the western caribbean in 3-5 days.

[rockyman]

93L has formed

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108276

[brunota2003]

Yep...this area the models were developing is now 93L, so please visit the Active Storms section to catch the latest on the models and the system

[cycloneye]

Thread is locked,Continue the discussions about this system at Active Storms forum.