Possible GOM/Caribbean development

[tolakram]

Zoom 1: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Looks like something might be getting started. There is some mid level spin (I think), but not sure about the surface.

Pressures are still rising at this buoy


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Wind shear north of the system is expected 9GFS) to relax a bit for the next 24 t 48 hours before increasing again. You know how believable those wind shear forecasts are though.

[cycloneye]

West Wind found at Roatan,Honduras

[brunota2003]

If there is a llc, then it is extremely broad and weak (note those winds are only 7 mph, or about 5 knots). However, the convection still is persisting (almost what? 4 or 5 hours now?), so it is possible a llc starts working toward the surface, or if there is one, it might start to tighten up a bit.

[drezee]

OK, there are different kinds of development...

Having a developing broad area of low pressure, one would expect pressure falls at that distance from the quasi-center.

Having a existing TC crossing over CA, you would not necessarily expect pressure fall at this point. The over all environment pressure is rising. THe High Pressure over the Atlantic is building in. The pressure at that buoy should rise. You should be looking for three things over the next 12-24 hours at that buoy:
1. Are the winds increasing?
2. Are the waves increasing?
3. Is the pressure at the nearest buoy rising slower than the rest of the environment?

1.Y
2. Y
3. Y, nearest buoy between 42056 and high pressure has risen 0.5 faster...

Do not look at this as a broad area of LP...this is a different situation...

[HURAKAN]

12z



91L soon?

[blp]

Shear appears to be easing up in its path.



However, overall shear appears high in the Gulf.



Looks like it has a small opportunity off Yucatan.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather's take

[alienstorm]

There is something developing there the question is persistence, and how much it can gather before shear tears into it.

[wxman57]

Every time I read through this thread to catch up on it, and start thinking of what I want to post, wxman always comes along and posts more or less exactly what I want to discuss

Our blob is in a spot where it looks to have a (very small) window before it'll get torn apart heading towards that jet streak. I'll be watching it closely, but more just for rain chances for FL than any serious tropical development.

Sorry. You can post first next time.

Convection dropping off now. Guidance has changed some since last week. The jet stream isn't dipping as far into the NW Caribbean now.

[NDG]

As the day has gone, I have grown not very impressed with this system. There is a vorticity with maybe a very broad & weak low pressure center east of Belize while the convection & H85 vorticity keeps drifting away from it. Surface pressures are not very low in the area, if anything they have gone up in the last 24 hrs.

[HURAKAN]

205 TWD:

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W DRIFTING N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 85W-87W.

[blp]

2:05pm Discussion... Low is still off the coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W DRIFTING N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-87W. FURTHER S...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-80W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
66W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N58W. SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WHILE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TO DOT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE EXISTING SURFACE FEATURES.

[cycloneye]

It seems that the folks at NHC are not in a hurry to have invest up as they want to wait for convection to persist a bit more.

[blp]

Interesting. Did not get all of the area in question.

[NDG]

:uarrow: It seems that the folks at NHC are not in a hurry to have invest up as they want to wait for convection to persist a bit more.

Probably more because it has not global model support also.

[Blown Away]

Some deep reds beginning to build again, looks better than 90L did.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

Surface obs do not indicate any evidence of an LLC, even a broad one. Obs at Roatan are almost certainly land/sea breeze effect. They're 5 kts or less and not blowing steadily from any direction. Other obs north of there are from the ENE-ESE. Probably most telling is the pressure at the NW Caribbean buoy near 20N/85W which has been rising for 3-5 hours as the storms approached. Not a sign of development. Wind shear steadily increases as it moves north, so it looks like just some rain for western Cuba tonight and Florida on Wednesday.

[brunota2003]

The pressure is starting to fall at the buoy now.

I also believe that any circulation (mid/upper level) is to the S or SW of the convection.

[tailgater]

Interesting MIMIC loop shows this area starting to break away from that large SW flow it had been caught up in.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[littlevince]

Surface observations: