Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes but you're saying this in late September. Don't be like Ed, don't jump the gun.

it's just a feeling I have, based upon the conditions that I'm seeing out there now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yes but you're saying this in late September. Don't be like Ed, don't jump the gun.

it's just a feeling I have, based upon the conditions that I'm seeing out there now.

Ike was a fluke, the one time in a three week period the Westerlies failed me...

[Category 5]

Yes but you're saying this in late September. Don't be like Ed, don't jump the gun.

it's just a feeling I have, based upon the conditions that I'm seeing out there now.

Ike was a fluke, the one time in a three week period the Westerlies failed me...

No such thing as a fluke. Your crow is getting cold.

[Frank2]

I agree with convergenzone - just a guess, but, perhaps the season will end a bit earlier than the average of mid-October...

There is a a considerable amount of shear present that was not around just a few weeks ago, and, the easterlies are starting to become fractured in the Tropical Atlantic, and, the westerlies are beginning to move southward, so, sure signs of Fall - let's hope so...

Frank

[jinftl]

where does the season end in mid-october? Mitch and Wilma mustn't have got that memo!!!

I agree with convergenzone - just a guess, but, perhaps the season will end a bit earlier than the average of mid-October...

There is a a considerable amount of shear present that was not around just a few weeks ago, and, the easterlies are starting to become fractured in the Tropical Atlantic, and, the westerlies are beginning to move southward, so, sure signs of Fall - let's hope so...

Frank

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Forgive me if I'm not remembering correctly,

But wasn't 2003 supposed to be one of the "analog" years for this season?

And in 2003 the "K" storm formed on September 25, and it still got up to the "P" storm, by having two storms in December.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Western Caribbean may sit quiet for a few weeks, but then a Monster
Major could explode there:
Majors can form in late October thru November


Wilma 2005 Category 5; 185 mph

Mitch 1998 Category 5; 185 mph

Michelle 2001 Category 4; 140 mph

Irene 1999 Category 1

Lili 1996 Category 3 115 mph

Marco 1996 Category 1 75 mph

Opal 1995 Category 4 150 mph
Roxanne 1995 Category 3 115 mph

Lili Category 4 2002

[Blown Away]

Josephine was named on September 2, only 1 named system since then.

[Stormcenter]

It's winding down folks...well at least for western and northern GOM coastlines. IMO

[Jinkers]

It sure seems like it's winding down, and that's a good thing..

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yeah, the season's closed. I mean, we had a lousy Cat 1. making it into Nova Scotia yesterday and today we've got a STS over the Atlantic. Obviously, the 2008 season is DEAD.

[Category 5]

Yeah, the season's closed. I mean, we had a lousy Cat 1. making it into Nova Scotia yesterday and today we've got a STS over the Atlantic. Obviously, the 2008 season is DEAD.

You're being sarcastic right?

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well, DUH

[jaxfladude]

Welcome to October !!!!!

[bvigal]

I don't feel it's over, talk to me in November! Take a look at 1998. After Georges, one small TS (40kt) in GOM, then 4 hurricanes that went east in the Atlantic, then Mitch, which began as a wave off Africa around Oct 8, and struck Honduras (Bay Islands) October 27 after downgrading from a Cat 5 to a Cat 4. Both shear and TUTT can exist, then go away for a time. Long-range GFS this morning shows resurgence of low pressure/precip reaching EC islands toward the end of the 16day period. (I know, not that reliable, but only citing it as a possible trend.)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/index.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998mitch.html

[Frank2]

...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package - an October 1 end might be a bit early, but, there have been many seasons that ended around this time - even those with active CV seasons - so, it would not be unheard of...

Yes, there have been three systems during the past 10 days (Kyle, Laura and that unnamed low), but, it was already evident even then that the season was beginning to wane...

I know I'll get punched in the stomach for this comment, but, an end at this time is very possible, considering that the westerlies are already moving south, and, the easterlies have already broken down in the Tropical Atlantic, so, the CV season has already ended, not to mention the cold front that has left the Gulf cloud-free this morning, so, as the Bible says, "the handwriting is on the wall!"...

Fortunately, the Mitch's, Lenny's and Wilma's are rare late-season events, so, hopefully we won't see those this year - we shall see...

Frank

[bvigal]

Frank, I really, really, REALLY, hope you are right!! But 2 things make me still dubious: 1. Mitch was rare due to scope, strength, and that he went south, emerged Pacific, then back in Atlantic; though originated with tropical wave, didn't organize until in SW Caribbean, an area which stays active later in the season, and is not unusual to spawn a storm in October. 2. GFS long-range model (below) looks awfully busy for a season that has wound down, still showing twaves and lows with plenty of convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Canadian has 5, count 'em, five, tropical cyclones forming in the next week.

Yes, I know about the CMC...

[caribsue]

Oh well, I guess us here in Barbados and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean will have to keep watching and hoping. Wish we were out of the woods, but I guess not yet???!!!

[jinftl]

I am an accountant in my work life....total numbers guy...so i did a bit of digging. From 1950 to 2007, there were 6 seasons that did not have a storm on or after October 1. Those were the 1960, 1982, 1983, 1993, 2002, and 2006 seasons. Put another way, 6 out of 57, or 10.5% of seasons did not have a storm named after October 1.

But when you look at those 6 seasons, only 1 of those seasons had more than 10 storms total, that was 2002 with a total of 12 storms before October 1, and then nada. ('60-7 named storms, '82-6 named storms, '83-4 named storms, '93-8 named storms, '06-9 named storms).

Given that we have 12 named storms so far in 2008....even if some are disputed....the benchmark i am using is a season with 10 or more storms... there is only 1 season out of 57 seasons with the comparable number of storms at this point in the season (10 or more) that did not have another storm after October 1...and that was in 2002.

Barring some compelling evidence that would indicate the conditions in the entire atlantic basin are so unique right now as to prevent any further development....and what really in life, let alone weather forecasting, can be said with such certainty....it would seem that climatology and history are the best indicators of what to expect. Not an absolute forecast....and certainly no strength or track forecasts are being made (any add'l storms could be harmless sub-tropical storms in the middle of the ocean)...but if i was a gambler, i would put my money on 1 or more additional storms being named somewhere in the atlantic basin during the rest of the season.

What would be interesting is to understand why the 2002 season ended so abruptly after Lili.....that is the one which was uncharacteristically over so early.