2014 WPAC Season
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
well latest runs from euro and especially gfs has been back back and forth forth...showing a strong typhoon or even twins and a monster through the marianas but currently doesnt develop much just a few weak tropical cyclones which we dont like...lets see what the next runs show but all models are consistent in something developing...
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dexterlabio
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from twin strong typhoons, we now have twin weak cyclones shown by the GFS model...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
00Z GFS develops 3 more cyclones behind our current invest including one that takes a devastating rammasun like track into luzon and hainan island...
EURO slightly agrees...
EURO slightly agrees...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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No doubt that we would have at least 1 monster typhoon this month, and/or close to Haiyan's 1st anniversary. The GFS has been quite consistent on at least a typhoon landfalling over the Philippines. 
Thus, the KW and very warm (but not anomalously) sea surface temperatures may provide a boost for development.
The GFS has 2 different scenarios:
They have 18z as 2 weak storms coexist at the same time, one is close to the PHL (to Poliliio Isl.) and of which rapidly intensifies and makes landfall as a typhoon. The other storm also intensifies and becomes even stronger and later brushes the Northern coastline of Luzon near Batanes. The former system (which had hit Polilio) moves south, intensifies and hits South-central Vietnam while the latter had hit N Luzon turns northwards and hits Taiwan from the south.
The 00z run has the 1st system relatively weak, and makes a landfall over Bicol and moves WSW-ward and does the same with the 18z run when it had intensified and hit South-central Vietnam. Meanwhile the latter system intensifies although a tad weaker than in the previous run. It hits Central Luzon as a weak typhoon still, and later becomes a large and quite powerful storm which hits Hainan China and later weakens. There is another system which hits northern Luzon as a weak storm which moves westwards and then later intensifies after exiting the landmass.
Thus, the KW and very warm (but not anomalously) sea surface temperatures may provide a boost for development. The GFS has 2 different scenarios:
They have 18z as 2 weak storms coexist at the same time, one is close to the PHL (to Poliliio Isl.) and of which rapidly intensifies and makes landfall as a typhoon. The other storm also intensifies and becomes even stronger and later brushes the Northern coastline of Luzon near Batanes. The former system (which had hit Polilio) moves south, intensifies and hits South-central Vietnam while the latter had hit N Luzon turns northwards and hits Taiwan from the south.
The 00z run has the 1st system relatively weak, and makes a landfall over Bicol and moves WSW-ward and does the same with the 18z run when it had intensified and hit South-central Vietnam. Meanwhile the latter system intensifies although a tad weaker than in the previous run. It hits Central Luzon as a weak typhoon still, and later becomes a large and quite powerful storm which hits Hainan China and later weakens. There is another system which hits northern Luzon as a weak storm which moves westwards and then later intensifies after exiting the landmass.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Well its a system behind our current invest that is poised to become our next typhoon, deepens to 971 mb before luzon landfall...
one day before the first anniversary of haiyan's record monstrous...
one day before the first anniversary of haiyan's record monstrous...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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GFS latest showing a monster. Wow, and that it is forecast to intensify the anniversary of typhoon Haiyan's histpric landfall.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS latest showing 2 monsters OMG
what 2 monsters? i only see a typhoon and even that is not a monster...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS latest showing 2 monsters OMG
what 2 monsters? i only see a typhoon and even that is not a monster...
Fine, one monster. -.-
Isnt the storm east of Cagayan on Nov 10 shown by the GFS a monster? 941 mb?
The pic is below FYI
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:euro6208 wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS latest showing 2 monsters OMG
what 2 monsters? i only see a typhoon and even that is not a monster...
Fine, one monster. -.-
Isnt the storm east of Cagayan on Nov 10 shown by the GFS a monster? 941 mb?
The pic is below FYI
That's a run from 3-4 days ago oct 26 06Z latest now is oct 29 12Z still shows one system and a weak one too but we'll see.
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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dexterlabio
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12z GFS still keeps 96W as a tropical storm but it is noticeably stronger than shown in the past few runs. 12 ECMWF is pretty much the same with GFS in track and intensity...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Maybe another Okinawa threat as GFS developing sinlaku and may get close to the southern islands as per latest run...
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
looks like back to back okinawa threat
besides the philippines and japan, okinawa gets hit by more storms than anywhere in the world....
besides the philippines and japan, okinawa gets hit by more storms than anywhere in the world....
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dexterlabio
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^People there always wish for something to come 
But the trough pattern across Northern Japan might protect the Japanese islands chain altogether and keep the storms out to sea. Latest GFS run shows this..
But the trough pattern across Northern Japan might protect the Japanese islands chain altogether and keep the storms out to sea. Latest GFS run shows this..
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Latest GFS run showing a low-latitude storm which intensifies at a fairly quick pace, lashes Palau and moves northwestwards threatening Luzon.
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euro6208
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