2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Here we go again with the ups and downs AnnularCane. 06z GFS did not develop that wave as it crossed thru PR, DR, Haiti and Cuba.

It's uncanny how often the "GA shredder track" plays havoc with the models. The Euro run in your prior post is also a perfect example. The only reason it has a system there is because it develops it before it gets to Hispaniola.

From multiple days out, it takes only a small shift in track to graze the Greater Antilles rather than hit them full on and be weakened/destroyed. Or I would never trust a model a week out to accurately predict a hit or miss. Plus the west side of Cuba has smaller ridges than the east side of the island. Charley is an example of a storm not badly weakened by Cuba.

[StormWeather]

12Z GFS today delays the development of our current 20/60 AoI tropical wave, but it does develop the wave behind it within 7 days from current time. If this suggestion continues to persist in the GFS in the following runs, it will have my attention because it is within a week’s time as of now.

Edit: actually the GFS initially develops the new wave into a 998 mb system by 12Z August 12th, which is 6 days out.

Edit 2: our current 20/60 AoI eventually develops into a weak 1001 mb system around 35N, 60W. It stays weak.

[OURAGAN]

975 MB, august15, east of lesser Antilles.

[hurricane2025]

Gfs is so inconsistent don’t even look at past 180 hours

[TomballEd]

GFS op shows a weak moisture/vorticity max ahead of the 40% Mandarin 10% of the 6Z GEFS (same for Euro ensembles) develop that. That leads to GFS ensemble members producing 2.5 Gulf storms/hurricanes

Could being the operative word. 10% is not screaming ensemble support.

Edit to add: The system behind the 40% Mandarin seems to have a future. Too early to guess which is right, but 0Z Euro ensembles show some track spread on that possible system the GFS family doesn't. 5% of the Canadian ensembles (shown below) hit Corpus Christi in 9 days (for entertainment purposes only)

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1953111241641337231

[BobHarlem]

Fairly large change on the 12z Euro, in now recurves the wave behind the current area of interest in the Atlantic (edit: now invest 96L) well before the lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda. Basically following the path of the first wave, although there may be a sign of a stall toward the end of the run. Euro needs a few more runs to cook and the wave actually in the Atlantic, but I'll take an August fish barrel, just no Bermuda or Canada please. Euro AI is the clickbait run for this afternoon.

[OURAGAN]

Not GFS

[Stratton23]

Sneaky little tropical wave SE of the leeward islands, TomballEd posted the GEFS run above, some members in the gulf in 8-9 days, worth watching despite model support being low and nothing official from the NHC, wind shear is favorable in the caribbean, mid level shear is moderate to low , also not alot of dry air, trade winds are fast though, still worth keeping a close eye on, GFS has shown attempts at consolidating a vortex as it moves through the caribbean

[Cachondo23]

Fairly large change on the 12z Euro, in now recurves the wave behind the current area of interest in the Atlantic (edit: now invest 96L) well before the lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda. Basically following the path of the first wave, although there may be a sign of a stall toward the end of the run. Euro needs a few more runs to cook and the wave actually in the Atlantic, but I'll take an August fish barrel, just no Bermuda or Canada please. Euro AI is the clickbait run for this afternoon.

Is today’s 12z Euro not available in Tropical Tidbits? It stays at 06z

[WaveBreaking]

Fairly large change on the 12z Euro, in now recurves the wave behind the current area of interest in the Atlantic (edit: now invest 96L) well before the lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda. Basically following the path of the first wave, although there may be a sign of a stall toward the end of the run. Euro needs a few more runs to cook and the wave actually in the Atlantic, but I'll take an August fish barrel, just no Bermuda or Canada please. Euro AI is the clickbait run for this afternoon.

Is today’s 12z Euro not available in Tropical Tidbits? It stays at 06z

BobHarlem probably looked at the 12Z Euro on pivotalweather.com, which gets Euro model data faster than Tropical Tidbits.

[Cpv17]

Fairly large change on the 12z Euro, in now recurves the wave behind the current area of interest in the Atlantic (edit: now invest 96L) well before the lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda. Basically following the path of the first wave, although there may be a sign of a stall toward the end of the run. Euro needs a few more runs to cook and the wave actually in the Atlantic, but I'll take an August fish barrel, just no Bermuda or Canada please. Euro AI is the clickbait run for this afternoon.

Is today’s 12z Euro not available in Tropical Tidbits? It stays at 06z

Tropical Tidbits is slow and has been having a lot of issues for me over the past few months.

[BobHarlem]

Fairly large change on the 12z Euro, in now recurves the wave behind the current area of interest in the Atlantic (edit: now invest 96L) well before the lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda. Basically following the path of the first wave, although there may be a sign of a stall toward the end of the run. Euro needs a few more runs to cook and the wave actually in the Atlantic, but I'll take an August fish barrel, just no Bermuda or Canada please. Euro AI is the clickbait run for this afternoon.

Is today’s 12z Euro not available in Tropical Tidbits? It stays at 06z

Tidbits is generally having issues, I love it, but I don't think Levi gets as much time to work on it as he used to back at FSU. Tidbits has been usually slower (and sometimes misses frames/runs) than some of the alternates. One thing about tropics links, always have backups and alternate sources.

Pivotal Euro link: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
Euro AI: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
GFS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
Canadian: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
Icon: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro Ensembles, animated to make out the difference between 96l and the followup wave easier. Yeah that thing east of the leewards is interesting too. GFS operational showed it some as well.



potential "under the radar" wave east of the leewards:

[Hurricaneman]

That area east of the islands needs to be watched, could be a sleeper, wouldn’t be surprised to see a lemon issued at 8 pm or at latest 8 am

[ChrisH-UK]

12z Euro Ensembles, animated to make out the difference between 96l and the followup wave easier. Yeah that thing east of the leewards is interesting too. GFS operational showed it some as well.

https://i.postimg.cc/YqQZ37LL/43319939.gif

potential "under the radar" wave east of the leewards:

https://i.postimg.cc/J4TJSDkf/48984470.gif

The GFS has it rolling in to the Caribbean worth keeping an eye on it.

[Stratton23]

Tropics really exploding on the 18z GFS lol, but that little wave near the leeward island is definitely getting my attention more

[BobHarlem]

Tropics really exploding on the 18z GFS lol, but that little wave near the leeward island is definitely getting my attention more

yeah 18z GFS has 7 maybe 8 different distinct areas coming and going by the end of the run. If even part of this verifies it's going to get confusing.



Double vision happy hour at the end there.

[WaveBreaking]

Tropics really exploding on the 18z GFS lol, but that little wave near the leeward island is definitely getting my attention more

The twin Cat. 4 hurricanes at the end of the run definitely makes this run a top-15 top-10 happy hour run imo

[zzzh]

Tropics really exploding on the 18z GFS lol, but that little wave near the leeward island is definitely getting my attention more

The twin Cat. 4 hurricanes at the end of the run definitely makes this run a top-15 top-10 happy hour run imo
https://i.imgur.com/7o1obc7.png

Looks familiar