Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[robbielyn]

Hard to get a Metro Dade/Broward/Palm Beach hit here based on the Euro run... could be another Big Bend solution if the models begin to trend North. Time will tell. Pretty much of all Florida needs to watch this.

Cant go too far north with that front hanging over north fl. probably still south of I4

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

12Z Euro 850mb height and wind

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/PhoRMDU.jpeg

CMC isn’t that though those may just be arrows pointing in a direction.

[tolakram]

3 model runs, time for an invest

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/woJ4mph.png

Did it dip South on that last run?

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/PhoRMDU.jpeg

CMC isn’t that though those may just be arrows pointing in a direction.

Sure, at the end its was going ENE if you extrapolate that seems ok.

[CourierPR]

For those saying it would be hard to get a storm in South FL based on the angle of approach, I remind you that in 2005 Wilma hit South FL from the Yucatan Peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

3 model runs, time for an invest

Does it seem they are 12-24 hours too slow on the invests? We currently have multiple "reliable" models with a hurricane into Florida.

[SFLcane]

Something is surely festering in the BOC this afternoon..

[fci]

For those saying it would be hard to get a storm in South FL based on the angle of approach, I remind you that in 2005 Wilma hit South FL from the Yucatan Peninsula.

Exactly!
This time of year a storm moving E or ENE from the Gulf shunted by a front is completely plausible.
That would also put SE Florida in the front right quadrant ripe for severe weather too.
If it crosses south of Tampa that area gets offshore winds and surge isn’t an issue.

[cycloneye]

The historical angle.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1842290008092184649

[cycloneye]

3 model runs, time for an invest

I am going to speculate here and say, sometime tonight we will have 92L.

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity is somewhat elongated.

925mb vorticity
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

[ronjon]

A reminder as we're discussing landfall possibilities. On shore flow (SW winds) will occur south of the center with offshore winds north of it. So if the storm hits Sarasota, all surge will be from that point south along the west coast. Interesting that I showed NAVGEM and HAFs with a strong hurricane in the Gulf yesterday and it seems the GFS and Euro have caught up to them today.

[ronjon]

BTW the 12z NAVGEM has a 965 mb hurricane into Hernando County. Yes I know it's not a good model. But it's consistent with yesterday's runs other than the track slowly slipping south.

[skillz305]

ICON 18z in progress

[cycloneye]

This reinforces my thinking that we will have the invest tonight. NOAA will have the first mission early saturday morning.

1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....CHANGED
A. 05/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR
C. 05/0800Z
D. 22.0N 84.0W
E. 05/1000Z TO 05/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z. (NO CHANGES)
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY. (CHANGED)