Wilma Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#541 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:23 am

My heart just fall out of its cage again :eek:
0 likes   

PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

#542 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:24 am

Mine too - this has been the most exciting weather-year I can ever remember...WOW!
0 likes   

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#543 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:28 am

I think this sums up everybody's reactions right now.

Image
0 likes   

PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

#544 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:30 am

HurricaneBill wrote:I think this sums up everybody's reactions right now.

Image


LOL!
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#545 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:30 am

Please keep the comments in the main thread, please.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#546 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:30 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 35
Latest Recon Position: 242 mi N of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua Google Maps Recon Position -- Click Here

01: 06:18:00; 17.1°N 82.4°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: -272 ft; Wnd: NE (36°) @ 67mph (Max: 68mph); T: 56F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 9902ft
02: 06:18:30; 17.2°N 82.4°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: -243 ft; Wnd: NE (38°) @ 61mph (Max: 62mph); T: 56F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 9931ft
03: 06:19:00; 17.2°N 82.5°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: -220 ft; Wnd: NE (38°) @ 56mph (Max: 58mph); T: 55F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 9957ft
04: 06:19:30; 17.2°N 82.5°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: -200 ft; Wnd: NE (40°) @ 53mph (Max: 54mph); T: 55F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 9980ft
05: 06:20:00; 17.2°N 82.5°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: -187 ft; Wnd: NE (42°) @ 51mph (Max: 52mph); T: 54F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 9987ft
06: 06:20:30; 17.2°N 82.5°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: -177 ft; Wnd: NE (40°) @ 48mph (Max: 50mph); T: 55F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 9993ft
07: 06:21:00; 17.3°N 82.5°W; PA: 10013ft; D-Val: -171 ft; Wnd: NE (49°) @ 48mph (Max: 50mph); T: 51F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 10013ft
08: 06:21:30; 17.3°N 82.6°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: -161 ft; Wnd: NE (52°) @ 52mph (Max: 53mph); T: 54F; D: 54F; Radar Alt: 10010ft
09: 06:22:00; 17.3°N 82.6°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: -151 ft; Wnd: NE (50°) @ 55mph (Max: 58mph); T: 53F; D: 53F; Radar Alt: 10023ft
10: 06:22:30; 17.3°N 82.6°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: -138 ft; Wnd: NE (51°) @ 59mph (Max: 60mph); T: 52F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 10043ft
11: 06:23:00; 17.3°N 82.6°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: -125 ft; Wnd: NE (48°) @ 61mph (Max: 62mph); T: 52F; D: 52F; Radar Alt: 10052ft
12: 06:23:30; 17.4°N 82.6°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: NE (48°) @ 62mph (Max: 63mph); T: 51F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 10066ft
13: 06:24:00; 17.4°N 82.7°W; PA: 10013ft; D-Val: -98 ft; Wnd: NE (53°) @ 66mph (Max: 68mph); T: 51F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 10085ft
14: 06:24:30; 17.4°N 82.7°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: -85 ft; Wnd: NE (55°) @ 66mph (Max: 66mph); T: 50F; D: 50F; Radar Alt: 10095ft
15: 06:25:00; 17.4°N 82.7°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: -79 ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 68mph (Max: 69mph); T: 50F; D: 50F; Radar Alt: 10095ft
16: 06:25:30; 17.4°N 82.7°W; PA: 10013ft; D-Val: -62 ft; Wnd: NE (51°) @ 74mph (Max: 75mph); T: 48F; D: 48F; Radar Alt: 10125ft
17: 06:26:00; 17.5°N 82.8°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: -52 ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 73mph (Max: 74mph); T: 47F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 10118ft
18: 06:26:30; 17.5°N 82.8°W; PA: 9993ft; D-Val: -39 ft; Wnd: NE (55°) @ 82mph (Max: 84mph); T: 51F; D: 51F; Radar Alt: 10125ft
19: 06:27:00; 17.5°N 82.8°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: -23 ft; Wnd: NE (55°) @ 84mph (Max: 86mph); T: 52F; D: 50F; Radar Alt: 10161ft
20: 06:27:30; 17.5°N 82.8°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: -3 ft; Wnd: NE (56°) @ 86mph (Max: 91mph); T: 51F; D: 50F; Radar Alt: 10174ft
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#547 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:32 am

If that was the eye then the lowest winds was 50 mph. :eek:
0 likes   

Typhoon
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:58 pm

#548 Postby Typhoon » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:34 am

Pressure: 892mb.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#549 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:35 am

Typhoon wrote:Pressure: 892mb.
Don't post your ideas... otherwise post the VDM. (which isn't out)
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#550 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:35 am

If that 892 millibars you say is right. Then it is stronger then the 1935 hurricane!!!
0 likes   

Typhoon
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:58 pm

#551 Postby Typhoon » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:36 am

852
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA



$$
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#552 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:37 am

senorpepr wrote:
Typhoon wrote:Pressure: 892mb.
Don't post your ideas... otherwise post the VDM. (which isn't out)


Sorry... you were right, but next time post proof.

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA

HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED

175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS

THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE

MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA

KEYS.



FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#553 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:38 am

Bye bye Gilbert if it go's any lower :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#554 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:39 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 36
Latest Recon Position: 273 mi N of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua Google Maps Recon Position -- Click Here

01: 06:28:00; 17.6°N 82.8°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 13ft; Wnd: NE (56°) @ 84mph (Max: 85mph); T: 51F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10190ft
02: 06:28:30; 17.6°N 82.9°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 26ft; Wnd: NE (56°) @ 81mph (Max: 81mph); T: 50F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10203ft
03: 06:29:00; 17.6°N 82.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 39ft; Wnd: NE (56°) @ 75mph (Max: 77mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10213ft
04: 06:29:30; 17.6°N 82.9°W; PA: 10016ft; D-Val: 46ft; Wnd: ENE (57°) @ 69mph (Max: 70mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10233ft
05: 06:30:00; 17.6°N 82.9°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 59ft; Wnd: ENE (59°) @ 75mph (Max: 76mph); T: 48F; D: 48F; Radar Alt: 10233ft
06: 06:30:30; 17.7°N 83°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 66ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 73mph (Max: 75mph); T: 47F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 10240ft
07: 06:31:00; 17.7°N 83°W; PA: 10020ft; D-Val: 75ft; Wnd: NE (52°) @ 70mph (Max: 73mph); T: 46F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 10269ft
08: 06:31:30; 17.7°N 83°W; PA: 9990ft; D-Val: 89ft; Wnd: ENE (58°) @ 71mph (Max: 74mph); T: 47F; D: 47F; Radar Alt: 10253ft
09: 06:32:00; 17.7°N 83°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: 98ft; Wnd: ENE (58°) @ 69mph (Max: 71mph); T: 45F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 10282ft
10: 06:32:30; 17.7°N 83°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 112ft; Wnd: NE (54°) @ 62mph (Max: 65mph); T: 47F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 10289ft
11: 06:33:00; 17.8°N 83.1°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 128ft; Wnd: NE (50°) @ 56mph (Max: 59mph); T: 47F; D: 47F; Radar Alt: 10302ft
12: 06:33:30; 17.8°N 83.1°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: 135ft; Wnd: NE (49°) @ 55mph (Max: 58mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10315ft
13: 06:34:00; 17.8°N 83.1°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 141ft; Wnd: NE (51°) @ 56mph (Max: 58mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10318ft
14: 06:34:30; 17.8°N 83.1°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 151ft; Wnd: NE (49°) @ 59mph (Max: 59mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10328ft
15: 06:35:00; 17.9°N 83.1°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 157ft; Wnd: NE (47°) @ 59mph (Max: 59mph); T: 48F; D: 48F; Radar Alt: 10335ft
16: 06:35:30; 17.9°N 83.2°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 164ft; Wnd: NE (45°) @ 59mph (Max: 59mph); T: 47F; D: 47F; Radar Alt: 10338ft
17: 06:36:00; 17.9°N 83.2°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 167ft; Wnd: NE (43°) @ 59mph (Max: 59mph); T: 47F; D: 47F; Radar Alt: 10344ft
18: 06:36:30; 17.9°N 83.2°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 171ft; Wnd: NE (42°) @ 56mph (Max: 58mph); T: 48F; D: 48F; Radar Alt: 10344ft
19: 06:37:00; 17.9°N 83.2°W; PA: 10013ft; D-Val: 174ft; Wnd: NE (43°) @ 59mph (Max: 60mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10358ft
20: 06:37:30; 18°N 83.3°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 177ft; Wnd: NE (45°) @ 59mph (Max: 60mph); T: 49F; D: 49F; Radar Alt: 10351ft
0 likes   

wayoutfront

#555 Postby wayoutfront » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:40 am

well that was quick wasn't it :eek:
0 likes   

EyELeSs1
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Sat May 03, 2003 11:09 pm
Location: Antigua, W.I

#556 Postby EyELeSs1 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:41 am

Did they Fly through the NW eyewall yet? ? as it doesn't seem so...when they probasbly should have
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#557 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:42 am

EyELeSs1 wrote:Did they Fly through the NW eyewall yet? ? as it doesn't seem so...when they probasbly should have
The first pass they did. They aren't flying through there this time around.
0 likes   

superfly

#558 Postby superfly » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:43 am

EyELeSs1 wrote:Did they Fly through the NW eyewall yet? ? as it doesn't seem so...when they probasbly should have


They just did.
0 likes   

EyELeSs1
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Sat May 03, 2003 11:09 pm
Location: Antigua, W.I

#559 Postby EyELeSs1 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:45 am

wow the eye was so small i missed it in that set of min obs...thought it was just the pass through the SE eyewall...
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#560 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:48 am

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 13 Google Maps RECCO Position -- Click Here
Time: 0644Z
Latitude: 18.2°N
Longitude: 83.6°W
Location: 274 mi NE of La Ceiba, Honduras
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: NE (50°) @ 47 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 48°F
Weather: Unknown
700mb height: 10100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brent, Ulf and 27 guests