2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wouldn't expect these waves to do much until they get to around 60W. That seems to be the sweet spot and with us going into phase 2 of the MJO, that is the favored area

[TomballEd]

Short fuse Eastern Gulf threat on 6Z Euro ensembles.

[StormWeather]

Short fuse Eastern Gulf threat on 6Z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/13TPIK1.png

Short fuse as in if it forms it won’t have much time to intensify?

[chaser1]

Short fuse Eastern Gulf threat on 6Z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/13TPIK1.png

Fortunately, there's minimal support to suggest that anything particularly foreboding would come out of it.

[convergencezone2]

Short fuse Eastern Gulf threat on 6Z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/13TPIK1.png

Fortunately, there's minimal support to suggest that anything particularly foreboding would come out of it.

yet, but this can change in a heartbeat.

[chaser1]

I'm not liking how ICON has been continually bringing its long-range forecast for the the E. Atlantic disturbance, further west and south over the last three model runs. It's 180 hr. forecast appears to be slowly coming in line with the GFS solution for a TS/H around the Bahamas in about 240 hrs.

[convergencezone2]

I'm not liking how ICON has been continually bringing its long-range forecast for the the E. Atlantic disturbance, further west and south over the last three model runs. It's 180 hr. forecast appears to be slowly coming in line with the GFS solution for a TS/H around the Bahamas in about 240 hrs.

good point. I didn't see this the first time, but I see what you are talking about when I look at it now.

By the way I'm the origional "convergencezone" poster, but forgot my password and the email I signed up with I had closed awhile back, so I had to start over with a new user registration lol Oh well that's okay

[TomballEd]

Who knows day 10 and beyond but while Euro ensembles are very fishy on the EATL mandarin, the wave that follows looks like a land threat.

[Cpv17]

Who knows day 10 and beyond but while Euro ensembles are very fishy on the EATL mandarin, the wave that follows looks like a land threat.

Yep, that’s the one I’m focused on. Looks like it could be a troublemaker for someone.

[TomballEd]

Who knows day 10 and beyond but while Euro ensembles are very fishy on the EATL mandarin, the wave that follows looks like a land threat.

Yep, that’s the one I’m focused on. Looks like it could be a troublemaker for someone.

Op is Central America will a reemergence in the BoC (500 mb heights would suggest it would keep moving W) and the 360 hour ensemble with a member or two for everyone, who knows? GFS ensembles then also interesting.

[AnnularCane]

I hope all these waves/future storms get sorted out soon. All these different potential systems and different model runs are making me dizzy.

[chaser1]

I'm not liking how ICON has been continually bringing its long-range forecast for the the E. Atlantic disturbance, further west and south over the last three model runs. It's 180 hr. forecast appears to be slowly coming in line with the GFS solution for a TS/H around the Bahamas in about 240 hrs.

good point. I didn't see this the first time, but I see what you are talking about when I look at it now.


By the way I'm the origional "convergencezone" poster, but forgot my password and the email I signed up with I had closed awhile back, so I had to start over with a new user registration lol Oh well that's okay

hahaha, I saw the screen name and was wondering about that.

[Pas_Bon]

I hope all these waves/future storms get sorted out soon. All these different potential systems and different model runs are making me dizzy.

Well, you are an annular hurricane, so isn’t spinning sort of your thing?

[Stratton23]

GFS went crazy in the western caribbean- gulf lol

[cycloneye]

Something good happened at the 00z runs of GFS and Euro. They coincided on developing the wave behind the 50% one and move it west to the Caribbean, but ended runs in different areas with GFS at BOC and Euro in Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Here we go again with the ups and downs AnnularCane. 06z GFS did not develop that wave as it crossed thru PR, DR, Haiti and Cuba.

[Category5Kaiju]

If some of the more recent models are to be believed, then the wave AFTER the current 20/60 AOI in the MDR might be a real trouble-maker.

[SconnieCane]

Here we go again with the ups and downs AnnularCane. 06z GFS did not develop that wave as it crossed thru PR, DR, Haiti and Cuba.

It's uncanny how often the "GA shredder track" plays havoc with the models. The Euro run in your prior post is also a perfect example. The only reason it has a system there is because it develops it before it gets to Hispaniola.

[GCANE]

Watching EURO. Has a wave developing just east of the islands, running through the Carib and shooting the Yucatan Channel into the GOM.
Surface low in about 200 hours. Watching further runs if consistent and if other models pick up on it.

GFS and EURO are now in sync.
240 hrs out now and just coming onto the Leewards / Far-East Carib.

[LarryWx]

The Euro Weeklies’ latest run (from yesterday) remain quite active vs active 20 year climo base ACE (>200%) through ~8/24. Then they cool down to close to active avg 8/25-31 (100%). The first stab at 9/1-7 is slightly below the active climo (80%). I wonder if this is MJO related.

Regarding absolute ACE, the very active Aug 18-24 is the most active week through Sept 7. As per what I’ve recently posted, the EW progs did fairly well in general last year overall looking out several weeks when they were consistent for, say, 7 days in a row. They’ve been consistent regarding well above 20 year climo levels of activity for 8/11-8/24 for at least that long.

Regarding 8/25-31, they’ve been near that 20 year climo for 3 runs. So, I still want to see how the rest of this week’s runs look before giving too much weight to its 8/25-31. Of course, 9/1-7 is a total crap-shoot right now with that slightly below 20 year climo being just its first prog.