Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Category5Kaiju]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vH8B0rSt/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh126-240.gif [/url]

IMO, 06z GEFS are still in a big disagreement on timing. The FL W coast and Big Bend area members have this AOI landfalling in 7-8 days while NGOM have landfall in 9-10 day range. The faster developing AOI goes in @FL W coast and slower moving system goes to NGOM coast... The operational GFS keeps bouncing around on these timing scenarios, you can see the big timing difference between 18z vs 06z this morning... JMHO

I hate to beat a dead horse, but that's because there is nothing there yet to really look at as far as a seedling disturbance. Models will naturally struggle with that, no?

We don't even have an Invest yet. I think things will become clearer once we get an Invest tagged and when the hurricane models jump into action.

[caneman]

I might be imagining things but it looks like there is some consolidation taking place in that area now. Let's see if it sustains.

[SouthFLTropics]

We are going to have multiple solutions from all of the models including the ensembles until we actually have something to latch onto. Right now, they are spitting out different outcomes based on multiple unknown variables to provide a possible picture of what could happen. There are just too many unknowns at the moment for them to provide a definitive picture. To quote former defense secretary Rumsfeld, "there are unknown unknowns." With that said, I think we may already be seeing some early indications in real time of this thing coming together. The area off of the tip of the Honduras/Nicaragua border looks a little interesting this morning. When we get something more established, the model picture will come more into focus. Being in South Florida, a quick spin up of this system is not something we would want to see because I believe that we would be more at risk. A slower development will put the North Central to Northeastern gulf coast in play. Speed of development, strength, and timing. Right now, I'm on the lookout for any signs of quicker development.

[Frank P]

The coffee might be starting to brew this morning... latest IR image loops

[gatorcane]

Noticing the models are showing less of an ideal environment if the low develops and makes it into the GOM. The 00Z ECMWF has no development, partly because it keeps it over Central America but there does appear to be some shear in the GOM showing up in the models.

[N2FSU]

WV looks quite interesting this morning



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[StPeteMike]

Noticing the models are showing less of an ideal environment if the low develops and makes it into the GOM. The 00Z ECMWF has no development, partly because it keeps it over Central America but there does appear to be some shear in the GOM showing up in the models.

https://i.postimg.cc/SxX9tyb5/ecmwf-shear-watl-55.png

We shall see if this stays true.

This was from wxman 2 days out before future Michael got designated as a TD. And I respect wxman’s insights and professional expertise, but I still think we’re in a position that many struggle to forecast upper level conditions 5 days out. No fault on the mets or established posters here, just think that we have the technology to really analyze shear on a day to day basis across all of the CONJS and use the information provided to forecast shear conditions 5 days out.

Note that current shear does not equal future shear. GFS indicates quite strong shear developing across the Gulf as the disturbance moves northward on Monday/Tuesday. I think we're looking at another sheared TS, similar to Gordon. Landfall somewhere between Pascagoula, MS and the mid FL Panhandle Wed afternoon. Went with 45 kts on my forecast. Certainly could not rule out 55-60 kts, but not forecasting that. Not much weather west of the track, and squalls could extend all the way east across the FL Peninsula Tue/Wed.

http://wxman57.com/images/shear.png

[Blown Away]

The 8am NHC update bumped the potential area more into the BOC and the 06z GEFS have more weaker members into the Yucatan/BOC and fewer into the GOM. Wouldn't be shocked to see future GFS operational runs shift W into Yucatan/BOC. JMHO.

[Ian2401]

convection east of honduras is interesting. models don't show any vorticity consolidation until early-mid next week. looking at the gfs simulated IR...nothing until that time frame either. nothing showing up on 850mb vort maps yet. even a little more concentrated vorticity in this area is something that can help jump start systems like this.

also seeing enhanced convection in the EPAC which IS forecast by the GFS.

[chaser1]

Noticing the models are showing less of an ideal environment if the low develops and makes it into the GOM. The 00Z ECMWF has no development, partly because it keeps it over Central America but there does appear to be some shear in the GOM showing up in the models.

https://i.postimg.cc/SxX9tyb5/ecmwf-shear-watl-55.png

Looks like orange duct tape protecting the Glass of Mexico, to me.

[AutoPenalti]

Less members pointing to Florida now, looks like a stall in the GOM is becoming increasingly more likely.

[BobHarlem]

On the 6z GEFS nearly all members go to Florida... eventually. So there's a bunch of uncertainty here on the GFS ensembles.

Notable, nothing really develops until late Wednesday, which means storm2k will stay frosty for several days.
Quicker runs landfall on Friday, mid runs, monday, and stragglers a week from Wednesday.

If anyone says they know where this one is going and what will happen they are lying.

[psyclone]

A sheared TS with some party squalls would be a delightful downgrade and certainly in the spirit of 2024 absurdly undershooting expectations. We'll take it as we impatiently await that cold front..

[psyclone]

The gulf is stupidly warm so any junk storm that can slay some of that surface warmth would lower the ceiling on potential late season chicanery. One can hope. We've already had 3 low end gulf cane landfalls...that seems like enough...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Accuweather has some interesting graphics on historical tracks of systems that originate in this area this time of year. I was surprised by the percentage that made it to TX



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ro20qZGka-Y

[Stratton23]

Problem is,a weak system wont upwell anything in the gulf, wont really cool off the water, i am thinking the models are over doing shear by a good bit, their will be shear, but not as much as what the GFS depicts, just have to wait and see where this disturbance begins to form

[Steve]

Best analog here would be KAREN 2013 if these trends continue. Note the "if". However, the EPAC may receive TWO significant hurricanes instead, both of which could be threats to Mexico.

So it’s going to be annoying.

[psyclone]

Problem is,a weak system wont upwell anything in the gulf, wont really cool off the water, i am thinking the models are over doing shear by a good bit, their will be shear, but not as much as what the GFS depicts, just have to wait and see where this disturbance begins to form

Clouds, rain and wind will absolutely cool off the gulf from at a time that solar insulation is insufficient for recovery. It won't be cold but it will be less hot and McNoldy's OHC graphic which is sitting at record highs would drop substantially. The northern gulf is already cooling down but any wind and rain would grease those skids big time. We need a slop storm for that very reason. BTW the eastern gulf never did return to its pre Debby temps...and that one happened in early August.

[WeatherBoy2000]

There's definitely still a lot of uncertainty which is being reflected by the gfs's highly volatile run to run fluctuations in intensity. The other global models aren't too hot on it, but many ensemble members still point to the potential of a powerful storm. I think it's too early to confidently say that this will be anything in either direction outside of a TC probably forming in or heading into the gulf in 5-7 days.

[3090]

Well here we are this morning diving into the why of the models showing little movement out of the southern GOM. So it went from the system is going across Fla, or the North central Gulf Coast to now where? It is still one big guess. Nothing changed from yesterday. Still a mystery.