2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

A number of GFS ensembles coming back onboard and agree with the Euro on weak development as it makes landfall in the NW GOM.

[Hammy]

GFS showing a few possible areas of interest now in the medium and longer range as opposed to a simple band of low-level westerlies--35W on August 22, a fairly strong wave on Sep 2 emerging from Africa, and a wave with increasing convection around 50W at the end of the run. This is in addition to a pronounced monsoonal surge with a low pressure gyre for several days near the end of the run in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf--there's definitely some improvement in conditions being detected.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is an amazing thing to see considering we're now into the heart of the hurricane season. Per my provider's output, I couldn't find even one TC of 1002 mb or stronger in the entire Atlantic basin through the entire 16 day run!! I had to look at it several times to make sure I wasn't imagining that. I mean it is pretty rare to see a run like that just about anytime during June-Oct much less during the peak! There are 20+ members.

Edit: Are we going to have the first August since 1997 and only the 3rd August during the satellite era with no TC geneses that became a TS+? I'd think the odds would still be against it as models miss geneses, perhaps especially homegrown, and every 8/21-31 since 2001 has had at least one, but the odds are steadily increasing.

[Hammy]

The 0Z GEFS is an amazing thing to see considering we're now into the heart of the hurricane season. Per my provider's output, I couldn't find even one TC of 1002 mb or stronger in the entire Atlantic basin through the entire 16 day run!! I had to look at it several times to make sure I wasn't imagining that. I mean it is pretty rare to see a run like that just about anytime during June-Oct much less during the peak! There are 20+ members.

Edit: Are we going to have the first August since 1997 and only the 3rd August during the satellite era with no TC geneses that became a TS+? I'd think the odds would still be against it as models miss geneses, perhaps especially homegrown, and every 8/21-31 since 2001 has had at least one, but the odds are steadily increasing.

I think we're nearing an almost absolute guarantee that we'll at least go the rest of the month without anything in the tropics, given the waves are showing absolutely no sign of coming off any further south--each time the models indicate it'll happen, a few runs later they're back at 22-25N as the time frame gets closer.

[GCANE]

ICON showing something coming together at 11.9N 33.1W in 75 hrs.
Tracking across the MDR.
At the end of the run (120hr), still intact at 11.5N 47.6W
No other models have latched onto this.

[GCANE]

If ICON is right and the wave continues intact into the last week of August, could see something spin up in the Carib per MJO / CCKW
MDR starts turning around about Aug 23.

[Hurricaneman]

If ICON is right and the wave continues intact into the last week of August, could see something spin up in the Carib per MJO / CCKW
MDR starts turning around about Aug 23.

https://i.imgur.com/Trx5hmq.png

https://i.imgur.com/aLc3Bgu.png

The models could start picking up on development soon, but it depends on where the waves come off of Africa or if the current shear moves out

[LarryWx]

The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.

[SFLcane]

The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.

Unlikely..

[CFLHurricane]

The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.

This season is starting to give me vibes of 2013, when the wave train was always posed to leave the station, but never left due to persistent dry air.

We’ll know in these next two weeks if this season is going to be a dud or not.

[NDG]

I still don't understand why models are not showing much if any development with the mid level vorticiy over Nicaragua forecasted to move up towards the NW GOM area in a few days.
Pretty good UL environment forecasted by the GFS and Euro by the middle and end of the week in that area.

[toad strangler]

The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.

This season is starting to give me vibes of 2013, when the wave train was always posed to leave the station, but never left due to persistent dry air.

We’ll know in these next two weeks if this season is going to be a dud or not.

Wrong. Flat out wrong wrong wrong. We won't know this in the next two weeks.

[SoupBone]

I still don't understand why models are not showing much if any development with the mid level vorticiy over Nicaragua forecasted to move up towards the NW GOM area in a few days.
Pretty good UL environment forecasted by the GFS and Euro by the middle and end of the week in that area.


https://i.imgur.com/0xuith5.jpg

This mornings paid report still says 10% but they are very clear that the conditions will be favorable for development. Not sure why they went with 10% again. I'm definitely getting a bit more concerned.

[DioBrando]

The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.

This season is starting to give me vibes of 2013, when the wave train was always posed to leave the station, but never left due to persistent dry air.

We’ll know in these next two weeks if this season is going to be a dud or not.

Wrong. Flat out wrong wrong wrong. We won't know this in the next two weeks.

WELL SAID. Remember 2016? The three majors were all late in the season!

[NDG]

I still don't understand why models are not showing much if any development with the mid level vorticiy over Nicaragua forecasted to move up towards the NW GOM area in a few days.
Pretty good UL environment forecasted by the GFS and Euro by the middle and end of the week in that area.


https://i.imgur.com/0xuith5.jpg

This mornings paid report still says 10% but they are very clear that the conditions will be favorable for development. Not sure why they went with 10% again. I'm definitely getting a bit more concerned.

I am sure they would had gone with higher chances if there was more model support of development.
10% is about right, that's the average number of ensembles showing development as of now.

[LarryWx]

The 12z GEFS dropped the two sub 1002 TCs near TX 8/25-6 but it does have one TC genesis 8/29 in the Bahamas that then goes NW over far S FL near 1000-1 mb on 8/30 followed by a hit on MS 9/1 as a 990s TS. But that’s the only TC that is sub 1002.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it will get going between September 15th and September 30th. It could wait until the last week of September, but I'm thinking maybe around September 15th or so....

[DioBrando]

I think it will get going between September 15th and September 30th. It could wait until the last week of September, but I'm thinking maybe around September 15th or so....

Can Humberto form around then? Unlikely that Lorenzo (my real name) would actually form this season anyway so I guess I might as well go with the other Italian-sounding name on the list. I was hoping to get a very busy September.

[SoupBone]

The 12z GEFS dropped the two sub 1002 TCs near TX 8/25-6 but it does have one TC genesis 8/29 in the Bahamas that then goes NW over far S FL near 1000-1 mb on 8/30 followed by a hit on MS 9/1 as a 990s TS. But that’s the only TC that is sub 1002.

I see a very small lower pressure blip south of Corpus Christi on Saturday, but it's not really much of anything.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1163155283457298432