Long Range Models

[Meso]

GFS Shows an interesting little storm develop right off the coast of Africa and then head due north..

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That wasn't out when Bastardi cut his video, but the intensity of the system has JB thinking he will get his East Coast monster storm soon.

With all due respect, Bastardi say that EVERY year. Guess he is bound to, eventually, get it right. Just the law of averages after all.

[Meso]

Image of 2008 ;p

[Meso]

Now that's a MONSTER if ever I saw one

[KWT]

simply amazing!

That reminds me alot of 1995, one hurricane after another...oh and theres a little matter of Gustav to deal with first!

[Steve H.]

That is a monster on the Euro, and look at the ridge beginning to build in the east as it approaches the Leewards.

[StormTracker]

I zoomed in on it and I saw a tag that says: "JB's East Coast Monster" !!!

All joking aside, it would not be funny for those that it affects if it does happen! The same goes for Gustav!!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK it's a global model. but anything that strong will be watched to see if it comes close to verifying. We'e statistically "due" on the EC but that is ridiculous. I hope that does not come to pass

[latemodel25]

Bastardi needs to move south so he will be sure to get what he wants so badly. he thinks just about every storm is coming to the northeast.

[Meso]

[Meso]

12z CMC

[RattleMan]

00z CMC paints a similar picture as the 12z:

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS, as well as outer grid on both 12Z GFDL runs for Hanna and Gustav show lowering pressures either BOC or Western Caribbean, apparently drifting Northward out of the Pacific.


As far as local interest goes, none of the long trackers, IMHO, will reach Texas, and by the time we are in prime time for the Caribbean late September into October, the Westerlies will be well established over the NW Gulf.

Hannag's GFDL has best looking system, a Pacific TC heading into the Atlantic Basin in 5 days...



UK Met kills it crossing Tehuanepec, but shows existing 850 mb vorticity, and looks sort of like Hanna coarse grid.



Satellite does show disturbed weather in the Pacific. This could be the last chance for the Texas people not happy with my possibly premature prediction that we've had our two TCs to pelt me with scorn, rocks, garbage, and eye rolls and other smilies.

[cycloneye]

Well,maybe a few days of rest after Ike,but already long range GFS is showing at least two new candidates for future development starting next week east of the Lesser Antilles and the week of the 21rst in the SW Caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

My site shows that there will be a system just about where Ike is now a week from now, and this time, a front may be in a position to set up a recurve.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_pre.html

[Meso]

[cycloneye]

It appears that a late surge in Cape Verde activity by the last week of September may occur according to the 12z GFS.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Isadora]

it looks like a very quiet next 2 weeks after IKE... no disturbed areas out there... but the CMC model is consistently developing a hurricane within this week in central atlantic... even though it is so unreliable... what do other models say?

[ronjon]

it looks like a very quiet next 2 weeks after IKE... no disturbed areas out there... but the CMC model is consistently developing a hurricane within this week in central atlantic... even though it is so unreliable... what do other models say?

I know its a long way off - 10 days - but 18Z GFS showing western caribbean development heading north intothe GOM.

[CourierPR]

I see convection starting to gather in the SW Caribbean. Might this be the beginning of possible future development?