2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[TomballEd]

I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.




https://i.imgur.com/f1dvrpc.png

Too soon to say this, the gfs/icon still has the further west/landfall possibility.

[Cachondo23]

I don't think there will be anything after the current AOI which will almost certainly recurve E of CONUS. Euro weeklies see Erin, then see the AOI at lower probs as a fish storm, then a fairly quiet week, 70% normal ACE (which is 70% of early September which isn't chicken feed). The week August 8th ACE returns to almost normal levels of ACE (for peak season) so the pause doesn't last long.




https://i.imgur.com/f1dvrpc.png

Way too early to determine the new AOI route.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1958160845692670034

[LarryWx]

Based on the ensembles and European Weeklies, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quiet for a couple of weeks starting August 24th. If so, this could somewhat resemble 2024’s very quiet 19 day period (late August through early Sept.). If so, I’d then be expecting an active 2nd half of Sept. and probably into early Oct. (also similar to 2024 ).

Other opinions?

[LarryWx]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

[TomballEd]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

Looking at the probability of being within a certain range of a tropical storm, the week of September 1 is almost dead, and it looks like the CV season gets going the third week of September. There have been October hurricanes in Texas, 1949 and 1989, but hurricane season very unofficially ends for MBY at the equinox.

[IcyTundra]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

Looking at the probability of being within a certain range of a tropical storm, the week of September 1 is almost dead, and it looks like the CV season gets going the third week of September. There have been October hurricanes in Texas, 1949 and 1989, but hurricane season very unofficially ends for MBY at the equinox.
https://i.imgur.com/LO2Em1M.png

The risk of an October hurricane for the Upper Texas coast is incredibly low. The risk is pretty darn low for the last week of September too with Rita probably being the latest forming storm in recent memory to threathen us in that last week of September. The guys at Spacecityweather always have a post during the 4th week in September basically saying the hurricane season is over for us. I am feeling pretty good for the rest of the season based on what the Euro weeklies are forecasting for the next 2 weeks. By the time we get to the 2nd week of September we will effectively only have 2 weeks maybe 3 if you are being generous left for our hurricane season.

[wwizard]

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

Looking at the probability of being within a certain range of a tropical storm, the week of September 1 is almost dead, and it looks like the CV season gets going the third week of September. There have been October hurricanes in Texas, 1949 and 1989, but hurricane season very unofficially ends for MBY at the equinox.
https://i.imgur.com/LO2Em1M.png

The risk of an October hurricane for the Upper Texas coast is incredibly low. The risk is pretty darn low for the last week of September too with Rita probably being the latest forming storm in recent memory to threathen us in that last week of September. The guys at Spacecityweather always have a post during the 4th week in September basically saying the hurricane season is over for us. I am feeling pretty good for the rest of the season based on what the Euro weeklies are forecasting for the next 2 weeks. By the time we get to the 2nd week of September we will effectively only have 2 weeks maybe 3 if you are being generous left for our hurricane season.

Though true about Texas and October, it has happened. Just 2 known upper Texas coast landfalls in October with both happening on the 16th (Jerry, 1989, striking Galveston Island & a 1912 hurricane striking Freeport), but there have been a few brush byes with the last of those being Delta in 2020.

Unofficially there’s possibly 2 hurricanes that have struck Texas in November, with one of those being in 1527 anywhere from Matagorda to Galveston.

So overall, yes, very low risks for Texas beyond September 30. But very low risks does not mean no risks and Texans can feel effects from something passing by from time to time as well.

[Kingarabian]

GFS seems to be heavily favoring an outbreak in the EPAC. If other models follow suit then it may be a quiet first week in September.

[TomballEd]

Euro weeklies below normal ACE every week through September 22, although the week of September 15 is barely below normal at 90% of normal.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1959731123304669196

[StormWeather]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1959731123304669196

Well that’s ominous. Thanks Hurricane Erin.

[MarioProtVI]

Is it me or does this season feel very 2007 right now? One Cat 5 and four weak storms through the end of August. And if ensembles are any indication, we may continue to struggle and remain quiet.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it me or does this season feel very 2007 right now? One Cat 5 and four weak storms through the end of August. And if ensembles are any indication, we may continue to struggle and remain quiet.

Right now perhaps, there definitely seems to be a 2007-feel to the season.

But when we say "struggle and remain quiet," the big question is, for how long? Is it just a week or two, or is it going to be longer than that? One might imagine that the boost in EPAC activity will eventually translate to the Atlantic perking up again at some point, but unless something really goes awry, I highly doubt that this lull is going to be that significant. I expect ensembles to begin lighting up as we reach early September.

[AnnularCane]

Wasn't the MJO supposed to be favorable for the Atlantic for the next few weeks or so?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Wasn't the MJO supposed to be favorable for the Atlantic for the next few weeks or so?

Not really. It was anticipated to be favorable for the first half of August (which came to fruition obviously given we got Erin and I guess Fernand out of it) but guidance was showing it propagating into the Pacific afterwards for a while. Would not be surprising if we see something similar to last year and things are abnormally quiet these next two weeks or so, but if the EPS is to be believed I would expect things to pick back up again during the second half of September, especially since it seems we're getting CV season extended into October now in recent years.

[Woofde]

Wasn't the MJO supposed to be favorable for the Atlantic for the next few weeks or so?

Not really. It was anticipated to be favorable for the first half of August (which came to fruition obviously given we got Erin and I guess Fernand out of it) but guidance was showing it propagating into the Pacific afterwards for a while. Would not be surprising if we see something similar to last year and things are abnormally quiet these next two weeks or so, but if the EPS is to be believed I would expect things to pick back up again during the second half of September, especially since it seems we're getting CV season extended into October now in recent years.

Yeah this pause makes sense, as you said it's likely to be temporary though. Most modeling is in decent agreement for the MJO to peter out and then transition back into 8/1/2. What's interesting is the models insistence for the MJO to hang around in the Atlantic for a while. Provided the waves are strong enough to take advantage; it could be an extended burst of activity.

[TomballEd]

In the matter of a delayed peak of the season, if there is a late CV season, will the trough over the E back far enough toward the Mississippi River to allow East Coast landfalls?

Euro weeklies get flatter as time goes out but I think that is dispersion of the different ensemble members. It looks like the mean trough could be far enough W to open up the East Coast.

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1959731123304669196

Well that’s ominous. Thanks Hurricane Erin.

I’m not saying I agree or disagree with him, but I’ll put this tweet out here from Derek Ortt as he clearly has the opposite take from Bastardi:

Erin has made things far less favorable over the Atlantic

https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1959963275161956575

My take is that the cooling will likely reverse to a significant extent fairly quickly as the cooled subtropical anomalies where Erin traversed warm back up. This is typically what happens and the rewarmings have actually averaged to be quicker in recent years than in the past. So, if so, this cooling will probably be forgotten in a couple of weeks.