2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Kammuri near Taiwan doesn't do much and developing Phanfone east of Guam



Phanfone rapidly intensifies and raking the Northern Marianas



Bottoms out while Kammuri watches...

[euro6208]

CMC on the other hand develops 6 tropical cyclones including a hong kong landfall!

[euro6208]

Much weaker kammuri and no signs of other TC...

[euro6208]

Typhoon Kammuri over the Northern Marianas



935mb right over Okinawa!



Long range showing Phanfone rapidly intensifying east of Guam and Kammuri way up there over the Koreas and Russia



Phanfone down to 960mb in the Philippine Sea....

Looks like a benchmark for el nino...

[mrbagyo]

The next invest?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS consistent with a strong typhoon deepening over the Philippine Sea within 1-2 weeks.

[euro6208]

Large and powerful Kammuri east of Okinawa and impacting the Ryukyu Islands



Kammuri makes landfall over mainland Japan



Phanfone east of the Marianas

[euro6208]

Monster run from GFS...Twin monster typhoons, Phanfone (left) and Vongfong (right)...

Has Phanfone making landfall as a 941 mb typhoon over Taiwan and Vongfong impacting the Northern Marianas as a 939 mb typhoon...

[euro6208]

Ntwx, will more kelvin wave and mjo come our way?

I see that these future storms could be the works of a kelvin wave...

[euro6208]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/ed ... tern-asia/

The western pacific is a very dynamical place when it comes to atmospheric pressure systems. The westerlies play a pivotal role bringing different types of cyclonic systems to some of the most populated places on Earth. The video above is a good forecaster training tool that describes the six main lows of Eastern Asia and how and when one should forecast these.

Very informative...

[euro6208]

18Z much weaker on both systems...Phanfone makes landfall over Okinawa and peaking at 956 mb just east of them and Vongfong peaking at 949 mb and recurving out to sea...Both will likely impact the Marianas...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^It is weaker, not much weaker. Dangerous.

[euro6208]

Phanfone east of the Marianas and developing Vongfong in the Philippine Sea



Intense Phanfone



Phanfone strikes the Marianas and recurves southeast of Japan...Typhoon Vongfong headed for Luzon...

[euro6208]

06Z keeps moving timeframe down for Phanfone, a monster...

Development at 72 hours near 165E
Deepens to 964 mb in 144 hours near 155E
Deepens to 948 mb and direct hit for Anatahan, Island north of Saipan at 180 hours...
Peaks at 930 mb south of Japan at 264 hours but weakens very slowly to 943 mb before Japan landfall...

EURO much much weaker...

[euro6208]

99W THREAD



Now an invest...

Hyperlink to the Developing Phanfone...

[cycloneye]

It was expected by the experts that the WPAC would be very active all season long but after the active June thru July period August and September have not been so active on ACE especially after Super Typhoon HALONG in early August.That is why the EPAC (161.38) is very ahead on the ACE over the WPAC that has only 15 named systems. (146.548) What is going on in that basin that things are less active in the past two months and things that form are weaker?

[dexterlabio]

That's a question worth asking, why we haven't seen a strong typhoon for the past two months...I thought the season was starting off promising with Super typhoons Neoguri and Rammasun in July.. There seems to be a break from major cyclones after Halong and Genevieve, but right now I think it's taking too long... If there was indeed a weak El Nino then only the EPAC is benefiting from it..


Well, we all know from the past that intense typhoons may appear as late as November and December so we'll never know what the coming weeks or months may bring... I'm here hoping that the next cyclones won't be another Bopha or Haiyan...

[somethingfunny]

I know that the EPAC tends to slow down when the Atlantic picks up and develops more waves before they get that far west, but considering how active the WPAC always is I didn't think that phenomenon translated over to that basin... but I suppose the hyperactive EPAC might be a possible culprit?

[euro6208]

It was expected by the experts that the WPAC would be very active all season long but after the active June thru July period August and September have not been so active on ACE especially after Super Typhoon HALONG in early August.That is why the EPAC (161.38) is very ahead on the ACE over the WPAC that has only 15 named systems. (146.548) What is going on in that basin that things are less active in the past two months and things that form are weaker?

The strong typhoon drought might come to an end...

JTWC forecast Phanfone to peak near Super Typhoon strength (category 4)...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It was due to the favorable MJO over EPac and opposite to the WPac which led for a long-term period of inactivity.