Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We are 15 days from the climatological peak of the Atlantic season of Sept. 10th.

If we don't see any hurricanes forming during this timeframe, I will definitely start to jump on the "this season is busting" bandwagon..

But still that is alot of time in the tropics and so much can change between now and then.

I would be shocked if we don't get at least one hurricane between now and then.

I agree gatorcane. I'm not stupid to say there will be no more storms this year but just because some models are showing a storm in the first week of September does not mean the season will kick in hyper drive either. We have been hearing for weeks and weeks things are about to catch fire, ramp up, whatever and conditions are going to improve in 7-10 days this week and then this week because models are showing storms developing. But just like we have seen today they start backtracking and pushing developments back and decreasing intensity by a whole lot.

[ninel conde]

ITCZ looking healthy:

im seeing some incredible dry air.

[RL3AO]

im seeing some incredible dry air.

And I'm seeing an active ITCZ that was bone dry a week ago.

[beoumont]

:uarrow: Yeah noticed that but look at all the dry air to the north

Well, we will see. One foot in front of the other.

I can't count all the times on all the toes and fingers of the people in China how many times Steve Lyons (ex TWC tropical "expert") pointed out "all the dry air" around a strong tropical wave with the upper level water-vapor loop in the mid Atlantic: then two days later we had a named storm.

Of course, one (additional) thing that has been lacking so far this season are good sets of strong tropical waves that were spit westward from the SW Asian monsoon.

I guess we will all see in about 10 days whether the glass was half empty or half full.

[tolakram]

What's a dry upper level have to do with anything? Mid levels look much better than they did just a week ago.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5.html

[TheStormExpert]

Could someone please post the latest MJO forecast?

[South Texas Storms]

Could someone please post the latest MJO forecast?

Here you go:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e_full.gif

[LaBreeze]

:uarrow: Yeah noticed that but look at all the dry air to the north

Well, we will see. One foot in front of the other.

I can't count all the times on all the toes and fingers of the people in China how many times Steve Lyons (ex TWC tropical "expert") pointed out "all the dry air" around a strong tropical wave with the upper level water-vapor loop in the mid Atlantic: then two days later we had a named storm.

Of course, one (additional) thing that has been lacking so far this season are good sets of strong tropical waves that were spit westward from the SW Asian monsoon.

I guess we will all see in about 10 days whether the glass was half empty or half full.

Or if the glass is cracked altogether.

[boca]

I was hyped up over the preseason forecasts which still might materialize but honestly its all speculation.

[tolakram]

ITCZ looking healthy:

Today's saved pic, for comparison.

[gatorcane]

The dry air is doing a good job destroying the convection in the ITCZ that tries to get going.

Looping the WV image this morning suggest this big pocket of upper-level dry air seems to be slowly shrinking and that the area east of the Leewards looks to moisten by later this week setting the stage for a low and possible tropical cyclone to develop there according to the models

WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2013/08/25/tropical-storm-fernand-forms-bigger-threats-likely-from-eastern-atlantic-in-september/
~~~~~~~~
Great video by Levi Cowen explaining why the pattern still favors U.S. landfalls for storms.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
~~~~~~~~~
Dry air is becoming less and less of a problem in the MDR. Combined with the MJO propagating east and more vigorous waves coming off of Africa I think we are going to see an extremely active September.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time
~~~~~~~~
Also, there is virtually no SAL in the MDR.

[RL3AO]

The TPW map from CIMSS looks much different in the Central Atlantic then compared to last week.

[ninel conde]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

instability has almost spiked to normal.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com


First Week of September May Yield Two Atlantic Tropical Systems
Alex Sosnowski By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
August 27, 2013; 1:00 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 1/17127520

There is a chance that not one, but two systems may develop in the tropical Atlantic next week, during the early days of September.

While the Atlantic Basin still has a way to go for being considered busy from the standpoint of active tropical systems, there is already a tend toward more disturbances and less extensive dry air.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "With the changing atmospheric conditions over the entire basin now, we could have at least two systems organizing this weekend spanning the area from just off the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and the eastern Gulf of Mexico."

"We are noticing a more moist and unstable environment taking shape over the tropical Atlantic this week, and we have indication now that multiple systems could develop at the same time during the first week of September," Kottlowski added.
Development of these systems is one thing; making a forecast track beyond several days until they become better organized is another.

Two systems being watched over the Atlantic will move along in a general westward motion through this week.

"If a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic remains strong, it will continue to guide the system already over the eastern Atlantic water farther west, into the Caribbean later this weekend," Kottlowski said. "If the high weakens, it could allow that feature to turn northward and miss the Caribbean."

Gauging intensity of these systems this far out is challenging. However, if either of the two systems were move into a zone with without disruptive winds, development from a disturbance to a depression, tropical storm or hurricane could occur quickly.

The water over much of the basin is warm enough to sustain tropical systems.

"There is also a chance something crops up in the Gulf or western Caribbean with a couple of weak disturbances currently hovering nearby," Kottlowski added.

As far as considering travel in the Caribbean or to beach destinations in the coastal U.S., this is not the time to change any plans, but instead monitor the tropics.

The six weeks from September to early October is traditionally the busiest part of the hurricane season.

According to AccuWeather.com Sr. Vice President Joseph P. Sobel, Ph.D., "It is highly unlikely that we will not have a hurricane somewhere over the Atlantic during the first 15 days of September."

[Gustywind]

No Storms Yet; That Should Change in a Few Days

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001


August 27, 2013; 11:13 AM
We have no organized tropical systems across the Atlantic Basin. However, a few features could develop in a few days. East Pacific development is also possible.

[Ntxw]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

instability has almost spiked to normal.

Subtropical Atlantic is near normal if not slightly above as well. It's a good sign that the MJO is beginning to influence from the west. So far this MJO wave has not done as much as I thought it would for the EPAC given the model's guidance of how strong it was supposed to get. They expect it to strengthen as it heads into p1 but we'll see how that turns out. Once/If the MJO nears the IO from Africa I think we'll see a hurricane or two get going and more than likely a few named storms the next 2-3 weeks.

[Hammy]

Given the current setup, moistening of the atmosphere, and increasing waves, it's all reminding me of 1998 (though about ten days later) where the Atlantic was dry and devoid of convection, then 1-2 strong waves moistened the atmosphere and paved the way for a very active month following. And like 1998 if the dry air does indeed return by late September, we could see most of the activity squeezed into a short time--10 of the 14 storms formed in a single 35 day period.

[cycloneye]

Get ready the charts as it looks like things will pick up very soon.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/