Long Range Models

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like a clone of Floyd

[SouthFloridawx]

That's not a good run for New York City and North Carolina.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That's not a good run for New York City and North Carolina.

Indeed but these models seldom tend to be right track wise on the first few long range runs. Especially in regards to systems that haven't even formed/hit the water yet.

PS Besides the long range GFS usually destroys the NYC/Long Island area at least once a season. :wink

[lonelymike]

That's not a good run for New York City and North Carolina.

That'll keep JoeB happy as he's been prediciting a NY hit for a while.

[jimvb]

Is this the hurricane hit on New York City that the Weather Channel told us about in "It could happen tomorrow?"

[stormhunter7]

hmm... the GFDL run at 18z... at 96hrs plus... got a little scary looking.... the switch is about to turn on in the atlantic tropics....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Mecklenburg]

hmm... the GFDL run at 18z... at 96hrs plus... got a little scary looking.... the switch is about to turn on in the atlantic tropics....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

that's what it said about 5 days ago... and look at now, it has been undoubtfully very wrong... GFS has been very uncertain lately

[Meso]

CV season anyone?

[KWT]

Looks pretty much on time with when the Cv season should relaly kick into life, between the 20th August-30th September generally is the best time for them.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

VALID 12Z WED AUG 20 2008 - 12Z SUN AUG 24 2008

<Snip>

MODELS GFS/CMC AND UKMET CONTINUE THEIR WWD TREK OF A CAPE VERDE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE BAHAMAS DAYS 7 AND 8
SUN/MON.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Cyclenall]

Has anyone else been watching the GFS model within the last 3-4 runs? It keeps showing another system heading westwards or wnw towards the east coast of Florida under a strengthening ridge. It's very similar to Fay's early model runs. I think there is another model that supports this idea.

[cycloneye]

Gustav in the near future?

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO shows the same.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

Fay Part Deux????

[Big O]

Fay Part Deux????

Not if the Geopotential heights depicted on Day 10 of the European hold. It would appear that this would be a west of 90W system, possibly as south as the Mexican Gulf coast. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081912!!/

Perhaps the 500 mb ensemble mean you posted on the "Texas Season Over," which you suggested might make your unofficial forecast incorrect, might come to fruition.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS 500 mb heights/winds from 12Z suggest a TC would have a hard time approaching Texas from any direction but the West or Northeast the next two weeks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro still looks like Fay redux, right down to the end of the ridge being near Florida.

[ROCK]

Euro still looks like Fay redux, right down to the end of the ridge being near Florida.

ridge ending near FL on this run.....but what about the next one? I would never hang my hat on one run of the GFS beyond 180hrs. Especially with what we are seeing with Fay attm.


edit : Ed the 0z GFS at 156hr......looks like a fairly large ridge to me...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 56_l.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the Euro storm near Cuba on the 30th were, by some coincidence, correct, and the GFS ensembles are close on the heights, it could potentially mean a threat to the Central or Northwest Gulf.

But I'm not backing down yet. Too many 'ifs', and if grandma had candy and nuts, it would be Christmas every day.







I will keep an eye on it, and as I have made two or three mistakes before when predicting things that were not in my area of expertise, I am well equipped to admit error if I have to.


Edit to add- GFS doesn't have Euro storm...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just watched Bastardi's video on above Euro extreme situation, showing how from 10 and 9 days out from today, Euro had Fay as two systems, and then from day 8 on, was fairly close on the forecast, and how the above Euro has two systems, and perhaps a single, even stronger system would exist between them. The 12Z run shows a stronger system, further North. That wasn't out when Bastardi cut his video, but the intensity of the system has JB thinking he will get his East Coast monster storm soon.